楽しいブログと不眠症

からゲイリーシリングノートは、次の最前線ディンされた転送ジョンについての思考。 ジョンは最後の先頭とで含まれています短いメモを。 -エド。

私は飛行機（まだ再び）チューリッヒからマヨルカ、私は、欧州南米のパートナーと会うために、午前いくつかの楽しいを持ち、前にデンマーク、ロンドンに向かっておくつろぎください。 慌て私の本を（後で詳細終了）と多忙なスケジュール今週、私は時間を手紙を書いて持っていなかった。 しかし、私は手の最高のあなたを残して恐れることはない。 博士ゲイリーシリングは親切な彼は、米国内の別の景気後退のリスクを見て彼の9月の手紙を、凝縮することで合意。

私は前方毎月の初めにゲイリーの最新の手紙を取得しております。 私は頻繁にそれを印刷して机から離れて自分の考えを読んでいくつかの質の時間を過ごすために歩いてください。 彼は私の""アナリスト必読です。 私はいつも何かを非常に有用な洞察力を学ぶ。 私は感謝し、彼がいる、と私はあなたとこれを共有できるようにしています。

手紙をもし彼の取得に興味があり、彼のウェブサイトは、再設計されているダウンが、で情報をより書き込みができますinsight@agaryshilling.com 。 あなたは（$ 275のために購読する）したい場合は、888-346-7444を呼び出すことができます。 あなたがそれについての思考の最前線からの読み取りを教える、あなたは余分な1か月のサブスクリプションに取得します。 そして今、聞かせてゲイリーに電源を入れます。

- ジョンモールディン

でゲイリーシリング

投資家の態度が突然ここ数カ月で逆転した。 昨年3月の後半、ほとんどの銘柄で年間にわたる堅牢な上昇を翻訳として、外国通貨、前年堅調な経済成長に開始した商品や国債の弱点 - "V"の回復。

その結果、投資家は今年初め、急速な雇用創出と消費者の信頼の回復は、小売消費を促すと信じていた。 彼らはまた、強力な輸出の伸びも、経済を推進安定の住宅部門の証拠を復活への道を与えていた。 資本支出は、主導ハイテクは、強さの別の領域が、多くは信じていた。

それほど高速で

しかし、面白いフラッシュのウェブサイト、またはそれほど面白いフラッシュのウェブサイト、事は超電荷、容量は緊張の成長への道に起こった。 4月には、投資家は、ユーロの下落で今年の初めに歓迎されていたユーロ圏の金融危機が、世界経済の成長に深刻な脅威であると認識し始めました。 株式市場は、（図表1）、商品が落ち債は反発し、ドルは上昇に後退した。 これは、結局のところ、これら4つの市場の中だけで一つの大きな貿易されるので、ダウンなどを開く側にその相関のアクションは驚くほどではありません。

さらに、投資家が米国経済の健康2007年12月に開始大不況で2番目のディップの見通しについて心配し始めた。 不足していた1兆ドルに近いの巨大な2009年度の刺激は、政府の生活支援を実行していた経済の再発を脅かしています。 新しい家のバイヤーのための$ 8,000税金の払い戻しは、4月30日有効期限れた家の売上高の減少が続く可能性がありますとして2009年11月活動のスパイク早ければ今年だけで、将来の売上から借りた期限切れ、その前身があった。 輸出の見通しは否定的な堅牢なバックと、欧州経済の停滞と現在の""中国の"停止"金融政策と財政政策への位相を停止になっていた。 と失業率、残りの高昨年の春、投資家は、財政刺激が疲れていたとして、消費者支出が低迷するとフレットを始めた。

レバレッジ

経済に対する投資家のビューは、過去5カ月で逆転したが、現実はおそらくしていません。 良い人生と1980年代初めに大規模な金融レバレッジや過剰債務、世界的な金融セクターの最初の、1970年代に始まり、米国の消費者の間で1980年代初めに支えられ始めた急成長。 それはレバレッジはコム株バブル1990年代後半のドットをクリックし、住宅バブル走。 しかし、今これら2つのセクターがdeleverに、その過程で、政府や中央銀行に借金を転送している強制されている。

このレバレッジは、おそらく10年以上かかる - それは良いニュースだ。 地面がカバーするように素晴らしいです、それは1年や2年で、主要経済国が不況を1930年代より悪い体験と走査された場合。 このレバレッジと他の勢力が経済成長の鈍化と、長年にわたって、おそらくデフレになります。 日本が示しているとして、これらの困難な状況は、金融財政政策でオフセットしています。

世界的な金融セクターや米国の消費者分野のdeleveragingsを実質的に進行中である。 家計の負債がダウン374000000000ドル2008年第2四半期以降です。 クレジットカードやその他の回転部品だけでなく、自動車や学生ローンを含む非回転部分の両方定率をされます。 総事業の負債がダウンして、商業、工業の融資を落下目撃されます。

一方、連邦政府の債務は5800000000000ドルから2008年9月30日に8800000000000ドルに8月下旬に爆発している。 このサージのインフレの影響について多くの心配が、現実には、公的債務は、単に個人債務を置き換えています。 財政赤字はさらに上昇した消費者と企業財政刺激策は、民間セクターの弱さを交換する目的が、連邦税収入を縮小、削減さは急成長を遂げている。

4シリンダ

私たちの2010年5月インでは、典型的なポスト二次世界大戦の景気回復で述べたように、4気筒の火事が後退泥の経済車を押して、バックアウトの経済成長の高速道路に。 現時点では、1つだけ - 在庫清算の終了 - 重要な電力を生成している。 他の3つ - 雇用の向上、消費支出の伸びは、住宅建設の復活 - 最高の状態でスパッタリングされます。

在庫循環

歴史的に、不況の経済活動の低下の主要な株式の過剰在庫のアカウントの清算。 ビジネスサイクルのピーク周辺、メーカーの売上高は、卸売業者や小売業者はが弱体化への管理者がいるかどうかそれが上昇傾向でのビジネスの主要なドロップ、またはちょっとしたディップの先頭を見分けることはできませんを開始します。 彼らは減少傾向にまで生産と注文を切断し遅延しっかりと確立されます。 分子、在庫、上昇と分母、販売、秋その一方で、在庫販売比率の飛躍。 それは生産と受注命令の削減を行う過程で経済下落傾向を推進させる。

それはまた、大不況の場合でした。 我々の見解では、実際に2007年初めにサブプライム住宅ローンの崩壊から始まり、その後、ウォールストリートには夏6月に2つのベアースターンズのヘッジファンドの崩壊広がっている。 しかし、これらの金融低下は、された景気後退は生産によって測定され、雇用と支出を、商品や経済の非金融サービスセグメントによって支配される。 不況が正式に2007年12月まで開始されませんでしたので。

消費者がストライキに入る

さらに、2008年後半まではありませんでしたが、ホームエクイティの崩壊住宅価格は（図表2）、レイオフ（図表3）、最大消費者金融の乾燥経費節減に消費者を運転上昇急落した。 しかし、彼らは突然2008年の最後の4ヶ月でバイヤーのストライキを行ったところ、結果は飛躍在庫販売の比率であった。 その結果、在庫の削減、不要な株を取り除くために遠く離れて第二次世界大戦後で最大であった。

在庫清算中の減少は経済成長2009年の後半に開始するキーをされている。 昨年の第3四半期では、1.6％、年率実質GDPの利得と第4四半期の5.0％、事前の58％の66％を占めた。 今年第1四半期のインベントリの建物は、実質GDPの3.7％、年率上昇、第2四半期に1.6％の上昇の36％の67％を占めていた。 合計で、過去4四半期では、在庫のスイングは、実質GDPの3.0％上昇の58％を提供した。

在庫は続行されますかどうか誇大宣伝に経済が見られるように残ります。 6月の時点で、小売店の在庫販売の比率は下降し、戻ってきたが、卸売業者のための傾向も上記のであり、特に、製造。 また、1つの事、不要な棚卸資産の清算を完了するが、別のが大幅にそれらを再構築することです。 後者はおそらく、経済エンジンの他の3つのシリンダ有意義な方法でそれを提供していない販売力、経済の他の部分に由来する必要があります。 全く逆。 これは、消費者が節約に続けば、最近残念小売売上高は清算される可能性があります不要品を商人立ち往生して表示されます。

雇用下界

ポスト二次世界大戦の不況では1990年から1991年の落ち込みは、給与の雇用の底に近い低ポイントに全体的なビジネスの減少で、来る前に急速に続いていた（図表4）リバウンド。 景気後退軽度1990-1991、さらに2001浅いしかし、雇用市場が弱い景気回復のため1年以上に残った。 同じことが、今回、多くの考えとして、経済の衰退を2009年7月期と仮定しています。 何が変わったか？

それは1990年から1991年、2001年不況は、軽度であったためにもかかわらず、弱いジョブ回復の浅い不況の結果、大不況は確かに仕事（図表4）の面ではなかったのです。 可能性が高い説明は、グローバル化、1980年代に、アメリカのビジネスを積極的に、人件費を含むすべてのコストを削減することを余儀なく開始、国内および海外サプライヤーへのアウトソーシングにより、推進している生産性と雇用を削減する。 これは特に、過去10年間で流行している。

ジョブズCEOは、永遠に失われる

2007年末以来、巨大な雇用の損失にもかかわらず、これらのジョブの多くは返すそうにありません。 7700000純非農業の仕事2007年12月、今年7月の間に排除のうち、86％は建設、製造、卸小売業、金融、レジャー、おもてなししていた。 これら6つの部門は非農業部門雇用の44.5％の7月に、半分くらいの損失は約占めている。 さらに、これらの業界での仕事の損失がそれらに依存する他の分野のサービスとの雇用損失を生みました。 ホームの建物は、例えば、家電製品、家具、家庭用家具、住宅保険の生産雇用をスプリアスと収益をサポートしている状態と地元の雇用を提供します。

住宅建設は有意義な復活を示しています前に私たちは過去の洞察力と説明したように、来月に更新されます過剰住宅在庫の巨大なオーバーハングを考えると、さらに価格の下落を、その結果は、年になります。 同様に、経済的超空いている商業用不動産、長年にわたって新たな建設や雇用を阻害する問題を抱えた。

在庫サイクルはここ数カ月の間が、製造雇用を安定させるか、在庫関連のバウンスが終わって、12月は2007年、おそらくさらに大きな数になるかといえばから200万製造業の雇用が失わ。 商品の生産は海外に移動し続けます。 仕事は、消費者の緊縮生産性の向上、製造を続ける削減とデフレ耐久消費財の消費量を削減していきます。 特に小売業、卸業25年の消費者の借入と支出のどんちゃん騒ぎ今省エネ乱射（図表5）で置き換えて圧力の下で続行されます。 それは緊縮だけでなく、永続的な企業投資の抑制は、レジャーやおもてなしでの仕事を遅らせるしていきます。

財務活動ジョブは2009年3月3月ウォールストリート2010年復活、しかし安定多くの証券市場の最近の弱さの可能性が継続はレイオフとボーナスの削減につながる。 連邦政府は、自然に、追加されて人々2007年12月262000、それは弱い経済に対応して展開からです。 しかし、州政府は、バランスと地域に、主に教育における市町村128,000 6,000を切った。

勤勉なコスト削減

不況は2007年12月、特に人件費を始めて以来、アメリカのビジネスは熱心にコスト削減されている。 最近の調査では、成人の半分以上は、レイオフのいくつかの組み合わせ、賃金と給付の削減による影響を受けていることが分かった随意レイオフ、一時的な仕事に自発的にシフトします。 多くは、以前の状態に復元されることがあります。 これらのレイオフが十分に新しい仕事を、あまり以前より支払われます見つけるために幸運。

1000人以上の労働者と主要な雇用者の約20％をカットや401（kを除去）の計画への貢献を不況時には半分は、これまでそれらを復元に失敗した。 これらの500人より少ない従業員とそのカットの貢献は、わずか36％が今後12カ月間にしたりプランを元に戻して、フィデリティインベストメンツの調査によると。 さらに、すべての雇用者の10％が削減したり、401（kを一致）来年の貢献を排除する予定です。

消費者支出

すべてのレイオフ、不随意レイオフ、一時雇用と利益と賃金の削減は企業収益の回復に尽力、されているが、従業員の給与に壊滅的な。 消費支出のこの呪文の弱さ。 また、消費者はもはや少なく、よりクレジットカード、ホームエクイティやその他のローンの収入と支出の成長を目的の間のギャップを埋めるために借入を保存している。 また、ホームエクイティは（図表6）、クレジットカードやその他のローンのタイトな融資基準が優先蒸発しています。 彼らは省酒宴と債務削減のどんちゃん騒ぎにしている、さらに消費者支出の見通しを削減通常、景気後退から景気回復を推進するために発生します3番目のシリンダ。

実際には、巨額の財政刺激しないで、補償を落ち着いた不況がダウンして実質的に消費者の支出をプッシュしている。 私たちの計算では、消費者が2008年の夏に受けた税金の還付の80％を保存表示されます。 そして、彼らは当初、2009年の減税、各社会保障の受益者のための$ 250の特別な支払いの100％を保存します。 これらのアクションは貯蓄率グラフ5に示すようにスパイクとなりました。 これは、以来、減税はhighincomeの人々に、通常は大きなセーバーを行っていない顕著である。 また、これらの人々は彼らが余分な社会保障のチェックのいくつかを受け取ったので、比較的数が少ない。 その結果、中間および低所得世帯が文字の重保存に乗り出した。

世帯は、復讐とのバランスシートをレバレッジされます。 2007年第4四半期末在庫は、個人部門の資産は$ 3.0兆下落している崩壊し始めて以来。 いくつかの$は1兆8000億株式と277000000000ドルの投資信託残高と引き出し株式の直接所有権と投資信託からの損失のためだった。 投資家は投資信託にバランスの1月に、3月と4月が、特に株式型ファンドでは、5月と6月に保有を削減するお金を入れた。 また、民間の年金積立金は、2007年末から2010年3月、家庭のアカウントで政府の年金積立金の末尾に$を754000000000安がダウン290000000000ドルであった。 533ドルの債保有高の増加は部分的にしか政府機関と593000000000ドルの証券の減少を相殺した。 一方、個人部門の負債は、他の絶望的なようにオフに書かれているいくつかの借金が返済されたとして主に住宅ローンの減少や消費者の債務のために5000億ドル減少した。

政府ではサポート

不況は2007年12月2010年6月、賃金給与から個人所得を開始して以来、経営者の所得は、家賃、利子、配当および転送年金、社会保障、メディケアとメディケイドの支払い、失業保険などドル285000000000増加した。 これは、政府の移転支出の532000000000ドルに増やすことなくドル247000000000減少していると思います。 政府の転送これらの増加はまた、使い捨て個人所得（税引後利益を介して）、これをさらに382000000000ドルの減税のために、低所得のレイオフから、賃金下落とボーナスの削減結果の下落低い個人税金で恩恵を受けて流れていた。

合計では、DPIは532000000000ドルで、政府の転送の増加と382000000000ドル減税から強化されました。 これらの重要なブーストがなければ、DPIは2007年12月の代わりに$ 667000000000上昇からドル247000000000下落していると思います。 質問、はるかので、任意の以前の記事二次世界大戦の不況に比べてなければ、消費者が大規模な政府資金による増加転送と減税の形でサポートされています。 そして、これらの数字はジョブのインフラに連邦政府支出や州、地方政府、連邦転送して、教師のレイオフや雇用削減を減らすために保存によって作成された賃金は含まれません。

お金の行き先ですか？

何が起こったことをDPIで667000000000ドル増加し、それが慢性的な消費者省エネ酒宴の可能性について教えてくださいか？ それを43％と64％に保存さなので、多分いくつかの以前減税の費やされた、費やされたが、遅れている。 それにもかかわらず、64％限界貯蓄率は私たちの慢性的な省エネまくる論文をサポートするようだ。

また、支出と保存、注意して何が消費者の分野で大規模な連邦刺激によってサポートされている続いているの観点からです。 以前の洞察力に述べたようにこれらの刺激は、将来慢性的な高失業率のために近くの現在のレベルで、持続可能性がありますが、そう、彼らは不況以来でしたレートで上昇するよう、すでに大規模な財政赤字への影響のために始めた。 共和党も民主党の一部は、議会のように急増赤字については、現在の刺激はそうするまで、少なくとも失業飛躍をさらに更新される心配している。 その場合、消費者支出のサポートの結果撤退がダウンして、それらを押してあります。 部分的にしか増加を保存して相殺された減税によって推進されている個人所得（図表7）のシェア、消費者支出の飛躍は、これは非常に永続化するとは思えない。

最近の消費者の緊縮の証拠が横行です。 消費者の信頼は、人々は、雇用や所得の見通しについてだけでなく、損失の株式と住宅の心配として平坦しています。 クレジットカードローン残高は、昨年10％下落したとの約束、さらに、消費者が借金を返済下落し、融資基準は、新しい連邦法の削減クレジットカード融資の収益性を締めます。 一方、銀行は消費者ローンの需要を報告削除し、減少率が続く。

増加節約だけではなく、債務返済にも401（kを再構築するために使用されていない）sです。 フィデリティインベストメンツは2.9％に削減しながら、参加者の5.3％、第2四半期での貢献を上げたが見つかりました。 5四半期続いた増加以上に減少したことが過剰ており、逆の4分の3に従います。 それでも、ローンや苦難の引き出しのためにアカウントをタップ数も上昇した。

低減された支出

支出面では、7月に販売台数は1150万年率で、最大2008から2009のサブ10000000レベルからが、中古不況のレベルを大きく下回っていた。 テレビで消費者支出、コンピュータ、ビデオ、電話機器は2010年の上半期にアプライアンスを購入し、3.6％減、家具支出は11％減、前年と比較して1.8％上昇した。 アパレル販売は、電子ガジェットを失った。 このシフトは、2つの力を反映します。 まず、消費者はもっと保存され、以下、もはや鑑賞今減価償却資産である家を装備で過ごしている。 第二に、彼らはまだiPadsやその他の小さな贅沢、我々は何年も前に特定の投資テーマ購入の満足をしたいとは8月イン完全に説明した。

住宅は、うつ病が残る

住宅部門は、通常の景気回復の重要な発生にもかかわらず、住宅建設は、GDPの4.7％ポスト二次世界大戦の年平均を占めている。 これは、ボラティリティが問題だ。 住宅建設はGDPの6.3％、2005年第4四半期に、最近のピーク時だったが、2.4％に、2010年第1四半期の低い落ちた。 この3.9％ポイント低下が非常に重要な、その3％の実質GDPの底の減少へ戻る検討している主要な不況を構成します。

州および地方政府の支出

それはGDPの13％のシェアを1970年代初めからこのような安定した12％となっているため、状態によって支出及び地方公共団体を一つの経済復興の源の景気後退終了後ではありません。 早期後二次世界大戦の数十年では、急速に郊外乱立の成長戦後赤ちゃんの教育資金を調達するになった。 市町村はまた、最近までからジョブの着実なソースを提供して、多くの少ない従業員が解雇されたり、民間に比べて解雇し、比較的少数のを終了します。 数年前、"社会契約"は、これらの従業員は、その早期退職規定と緑豊かな年金、民間部門の労働者よりも低い賃金を受けて開催された、彼らの晩年に追いつくことができた。 しかし、1980年代初めから、民間部門の実質所得はほとんど成長グローバル化されている。 一方、州および地方政府の従業員は給料を受け取るために継続してインフレを上回ると発生する34％、民間部門の従業員（図表8）よりも高い賃金があります。

連邦ヘルプ

財政刺激プログラムの一環として、連邦政府は学校の先生のレイオフを防ぐために$を246000000000州政府への転送は、ヘルプファンドメディケイドのコストの増大は、国家予算内の他の穴に差し込みます。 連邦資金は国家予算のギャップの40％が、30％充填されて46の州が来年7月1日から始まる2011会計年度は、相当の予算の19％に121000000000ドルの集団赤字を計画している。 また、39州が2012年度の$ 102億ウォンのギャップを参照してください。 連邦政府の援助が続く限り、これらの赤字ははるかに大きくなります。 すべての州が、バーモント州は、1つのフォームまたは別の予算のバランスを取る必要ありませんが、ほとんどは財政ギミックと創造の会計として違反には本当にクリエイティブになる光栄です。

予算あざむきは間違いない状態支出の急速な成長、近年、債務の飛躍に関連している。 国及び地方公共団体は、今では、現在の予算に基づいて行われるために使用し、いくつかの問題の負債の投資に資金を供給するためのルーチン予算不足をカバーするために借金を使用します。 合計状態と地方債の債務残高は2000年と2009年の間に、1.2兆ドルから2300000000000ドルに93％を浮上した。

これは明らかに、はるかに少ないカット、その支出を平らに6％7％成長率の10年後に政府が歯の状態、ローカルの外側暗闇の中で歯ぎしりがかかる。 市町村の雇用をジャンピング年以前の支出を急増の主な理由であり、多くの場合、ローカル労働力の状態を組合員削減は非常に困難です。 大不況は、2007年12月から4月にかけて開始して以来、民間給与の雇用が6.8％減少している。 しかし、州および地方のジョブが減少しているが、はるかに少ない、わずか1.4％増加した。 7月には、9.5万人、48,000ジョブを、102000過去3ヶ月で、169000今年これまでカット採用州および地方政府、。

レイズの税金

金融問題は、多くの州および地方政府への反応では税金と手数料を高めるために試みている。 いつもの容疑者は、企業からの状態のもとにたばこやアルコール飲料に高い罪税など税金が国家のいくつかのビジネスが含まれます。 しようとすると、カットの支出全くもって不十分と地方政府の資金調達の問題の状態を解決するための証明している税金を上げる。 そして、それらの問題は慢性的な場合は特に、経済成長の鈍化の業績予想もデフレが有効です表示されます。 課税の個人や企業の所得の上昇がミュートされます。 小売売上高は、税それらの低迷など、消費者は今後10年間の貯蓄酒宴では、借入と最後の10年間の浪費を交換する永続化されます。

住宅価格はさらに次の1年かそこらで下落する可能性が高い、巨大な過剰在庫の重みでいる。 場合でも、それらの在庫がオフに働いている、住宅価格が増えるだろう少し、すべてでは、低インフレやデフレ気候の場合。 歴史的に、彼らは、フラット全体のインフレ率や住宅の成長サイズの時間をかけて修正した後てきた。 そして今は、住宅価格が全国1930年代以来初めて下落している、家の買い手は、もはや、素晴らしい、レバレッジ投資としての住居では、を参照してください小さく、安く家をクリックします。 それはまた、固定資産税の評価を軽減します。

一方、商業用不動産の高い空と深刻な財政問題は何年も解決するために、価格はいくつかの時間（図9）落ち込んで維持かかります。 したがって、すべてのものは、地方政府の財産税は、長年にわたって縮小する可能性があると考えた。 一方、市町村費が削減するのが難しいでしょう。 慢性高失業率が高いメディケイドの登録とコストを生成します。 福祉と失業給付費は同様に上昇することは間違いないでしょう。

Deteriorating finances are raising the risks of defaults on state and local obligations and even municipal bankruptcies. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania's capital, will not make a $3.3 million municipal bond payment on $51.5 million debt that's due in two weeks, and earlier this year, city officials discussed bankruptcy. Harrisburg also lacks the funds to continue payments for the $288 million debt on an incinerator project. Earlier, Jefferson County, Ala., home of Birmingham, defaulted on $227 million due on its disastrous sewer upgrades.

Taxpayer Revolt?

People working in the private sector apparently were willing to accept the higher pay, more job security and better retirement benefits for state and local employees in past years. High employment in the private sector and robust economic growth at least held out the hope that their lots would improve tomorrow. But with slow economic growth, limited income expansion and high unemployment now expected by them for years, voter attitudes appear to be changing.

Americans still want basic municipal services like police and fire protection, good schools for their kids, clean streets and garbage collection. But they apparently are deciding they're paying too much for those services; that 34% higher wages for state and local employees compared to private sector workers isn't justified as pay cuts multiply in the private sector and those laid off earn much less if and when they can find another job; that 66% higher benefit costs is over the top, especially as private sector employees are paying more of their health care premiums and seeing their defined benefit pension plans replaced by much more uncertain 401(k)s.

As taxpayers revolt, there are plenty of things that can be done to reduce state and local government costs in an orderly way. Following in the footsteps of bankrupt GM, two-tier wage structures are being established with existing employees continuing at current salary levels, but new hires paid the much lower wages adequate to attract qualified people. And the new people are enrolled in defined contribution pension plans that require employee contributions, not defined benefit plans, while their retirement ages are increased.

外国貿易

もう1つの経済部門の管理は、彼らは今後5年間で倍増し、有意義な経済成長を提供する考えから、景気回復の通常isn'ta重要なエンジンが重要な存在では輸出されます。 彼は巨額の財政刺激は、経済を復活させていないすでに巨大な財政赤字は、大きな支出の一層のラウンドを妨げる実現大統領の熱意は、その目標を達成するために上昇する。

But two significant problems are likely to retard export growth in future years – rising protectionism that clearly impedes foreign trade, and finding foreign countries that will buy this doubling of American exports. It's like the story of the stockbroker who calls his client during May's Flash Crash to tell him that stocks are collapsing. “Sell my entire portfolio!” yells the distressed client. “Sure,” retorts the broker, “but to whom? There are no buyers.”

Foreign Buyers?

As far as foreign buyers of US exports is concerned, the reality is that many of those markets that are showing robust growth and therefore might be able to absorb American products, lands like China and Germany, are major exporters themselves, not importers on balance. Indeed, it's no surprise that the EU's measures of both industry and household confidence shows that export-led Germany has the highest level while the economically weak Club Med net importers are at the bottom of the pile (Chart 10).

Currency changes have only limited effects on export or import prices. The volatility of US import prices is only about one-fourth that of the dollar and a third in the case of American export prices. なぜですか？ Many products are sold under long-term contracts and immune from most currency fluctuations. Also, importers and exporters resist reflecting the full extent of exchange rate changes in their prices. If the yen is strong against the dollar, importers of Lexus cars shave their profit margins to offset some of the higher prices in dollars to avoid losing market share. Conversely, US exporters to Japan don't pass on in lower yen prices the full extent of the dollar's decline in order to increase their profits.

The “processing trade” in which components are imported, assembled and then re-exported makes up about half of Chinese exports. This reduces the importance of the yuan's exchange rates. Furthermore, even goods with more domestic content aren't completely sensitive to exchange rates in a global world. About 50% of a Chinese manufacturer of children's clothes costs are fabric and around 50% of the fabric's costs are cotton, a globally-traded commodity priced in dollars. So, 25% of the total cost is not affected by yuan fluctuations. Also, another 25% might be in the combined profits of the clothing and the fabric producers, and could be adjusted to offset currency fluctuations – or production moved to lower-cost Vietnam or Bangladesh if the yuan leaped in value.

Double Dip Recession?

We've made our case for very slow US economic growth in the quarters, indeed the years, ahead. The economic rebound due to the inventory cycle is over. Employment and consumer spending remain weak. Housing is too overburdened with excess inventory and the resulting price weakness to revive any time soon. State and local government spending and employment are retreating. And meaningful export gains are unlikely as economic growth abroad slips. Interestingly, the consensus forecast is moving toward our position as growth estimates have been reduced rapidly in recent months. In both April and June, the Wall Street Journal's poll of economists (not including us) expected 3% economic growth in the second half of this year. We wonder if they still do.

ウィルの成長が遅く、別の不況に悪化、いわゆるダブルディップのシナリオ？ その質問を散策する前に、ダブルディップを定義します。 これは、2007年から2009年暴落、次の経済の衰退の第2期を意味するようだ。 つまり、不況は、受け入れ機関は、ビジネスサイクルデート委員会は、非営利全米経済研究所の2007年12月に開始さとして特定し、まだ進行中であることを意味でした。 確かに、実質GDPは過去4四半期に生えていたが、それは一般的な景気後退に利得の四半期を持っている。 11ポスト二次世界大戦の不況では、これまで7人が、2007年から2009年の減少など、景気後退に実質GDPの増加の少なくとも1つの四半期でした。 実際には、2つの - 1960年から1961年と2001年の減少 - も連続減少の4分の2を持っていなかった。 1929-1933経済の崩壊でも、GDPは6四半期に上昇した。

それでも、これまでにない長さと仮定すると、同じ不況の減少フェーズ間4四半期合間を持って、現在の四半期の実質GDPの減少。 経済の弱さの別の期間は、2番目の景気後退と、1981年7月に始まった1981年から1982年の減少、限り、1980年の不況は12カ月後に終了分類することができるかもしれない。

不況に遅い成長

我々はレコードの50％以上2番目のディップまたは別の景気後退、どんなことが呼び出されるとの確率です。 ECRIウィークリーの組成物は、インデックスをリードする独自のままですが、その成長率はレベルが過去に、常に景気後退（図表11）に関連付けられてに落ちている。 歴史的に、しかし、景気後退は、ショックで推進されている。 2001前にポスト二次世界大戦の不況は、FRBは景気過熱の脅威に対応し、その結果高いインフレを引き締めによって引き起こされた。 その後、他のショックは担当している。 2001不況はバブルの9 / 11衝撃増強ドット2000年崩壊に起因する。 2007-2009低迷は2007年初めに開始サブプライム住宅ローンの崩壊に起因する。

現在の経済と金融情勢では、非常にFRBが年のための信用を強化する可能性は低いです。 経済が量的緩和を更新し、デフレと基準以下の成長を心配するにつれて、実際には、中央銀行は、昨年春の流動性を撤回することを計画からシフトしている。 これは、銀行貸出は、"契約を続けている間、その8月10日の政策会合の後遅滞高い失業率、低速所得の伸び、低ホームエクイティとタイトな信用状態によってされている家計支出は"と話した。

文字列で押す

従来の金融緩和はゼロにフェデラルファンドレートの近い無力は、貨幣乗数崩壊、銀行の現金貯め込む（図表12）に座って、1兆ドルを超える外貨準備の上で。 FRBに確かに、大手銀行の報告書は、彼らが中小企業の融資基準を緩和され、それらの間の金融危機後、多くの少ない潜在的な借り手は、緩やかな貸付日より信用をとみなされます。 さらに、中小企業の貿易グループは、国内連盟は、独立事業の、レポートは信用が満たさ必要にやビジネス、小企業の経営者の91％が持っていたので、彼らが借りしたくない遅いです。 FRBはよく知ら文字列を進めている。

FRBはまた、デフレについては、これさえゼロ金利は、実質でプラスとしてデフレ日本で長年のケースをされていることを意味心配。 また、デフレはバイヤーの自己給電サイクルのstill -低価格のよう日本で我々としても頻繁に年間慢性デフレper 3％2％の当社の予想と一緒にdiscussedを見た待機を推奨します。 それは10の会議声明ポスト8月だでは、連邦準備制度は、"インフレの対策は、"既に低、"低い"最近傾向にあると"しばらく落ち着いたする可能性がある"と述べた。ジェームスブラード社長連邦準備制度銀行はセントルイスのは、最近デフレのリスクを警告した。

デフレは怖い現象ですが、我々は、連邦準備制度だけでなく、他の多くの予報は、私たちの予測の方向に動いている注目抵抗することはできません。 対照的に、ピーターEavis 4月6 Wall Street Journalの作品ははっきりと、"彼らの権利念頭に置いて誰もがインフレ4％を大幅に下回る、今後10年間の残りに賭けると述べた。"たぶん私たちはより私たちの頭は、検討した。

ベビーステップ

従来の金融すでに巨大な財政赤字保留のための一層の財政刺激策疲れを容易にだから、FRBは8月10日の会議で交換する国債を買うことに決めた、より定量的容易に向かって赤ちゃんの一歩を踏み出した成熟と財務省を借り換えそれが今年購入完了1700000000000ドル買いだめの住宅ローン担保証券。 低金利の住宅ローンは、借り換えが2000億ドルの以前の推定値から2011年末までに3400億ドルにFRBのポートフォリオの収縮を高めるために、別の550億ドルで、ファニーメイとフレディマックの債務連邦準備制度によって開催された退職から投影された。

Furthermore, the Fed is open to further steps if the economy continues to slip. It could buy even more Treasurys or mortgage debt. But would the resulting lower interest rates encourage prospective home buyers who now know that house prices can and do fall? Would another $1 trillion in excess reserves induce more bank lending than the first $1 trillion? The Fed could also promise to keep short-term interest rates low, but it's already said it would for an “extended period.”

It could cut out the 0.25% it pays the banks on their reserves, but would that induce reluctant banks to lend? Finally, the Fed could set an inflation target over its formal 1.5% to 2.0% range. That would be anathema for inflation-wary central bankers, and how could the Fed hit that target in a deflationary world where ample supply exceeds weak demand? Despite all the credit easing actions that Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his famous November 2002 speech, said the Fed could take if the federal funds target reached zero, the credit authorities are about out of ammo – except for dumping money out of helicopters. Remember the “Helicopter Ben” moniker?

Other Shocks

If the Fed is highly unlikely to shock slow growth into recession, what could? This brings us back to the series of seemingly isolated events that are occurring on the deleveraging road, such as further financial woes in Europe, a crisis in commercial real estate, a nosedive in the Chinese economy and a slow motion train wreck in Japan. They are all possibilities – as are other shocks here or abroad that we don't foresee. Maybe the exhausting of federal stimulus will be enough to trigger an economic downturn. Keep your eyes pealed, however, because it won't take much disruption to push the fragile global economy back into decline.

Gary Shilling

John Mauldin…

Houston, My Book, and New York

Tuesday was a very special day. My co-author, Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception (based in London), and I spent the entire day reading the first complete rough draft of our forthcoming book, The End Game. We went cover to cover, making comments and notes. Of course, I had read the bits and pieces, but not in one sitting. I have to say that I am more than happy. It is a very good first draft, much better than I thought it would be. There is a lot of work ahead, of course, to try and make it a great book, but I can “feel” it. And I think we have managed to capture some very difficult topics and make them simple and maybe even a fun read. We are on target for a January 1 launch.

We make what I feel is an overwhelming case for a period of slow growth in the developed world, with more volatility as the base case. The research we review is very strong. But there are pockets of potential if you step back and take off your localized blinders.

I will be in Houston (along with Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Bill King, and Jon Sundt) at the one-day X-Factor Conference on October 1. Quite the lineup. You can learn more by going to www.streettalklive.com . Then I will be in New York in late October, speaking at the BCA conference and a few media events.

It has been interesting talking with investment types in Europe. They are very curious about the US and what they perceive as our lack of seriousness about the deficit. It appears that Greece has focused their attention. And of course, I get off the plane from Malta yesterday and the headline in the Financial Times says, “Greece rules out possibility of default.” I know that made me feel better. And gave us all a laugh. If you have not, read the piece from Michael Lewis in Vanity Fair on Greece. And then share my amusement about the chances of no default.

It is time to hit the send button. I feel a nap coming on. Jet lag has been worse than normal this trip. And maybe another glass of Prosecco to ease me into slumberland.

Your excited about almost finishing this book analyst,

John Mauldin
John@FrontLineThoughts.com

Copyright 2010 John Mauldin. すべての権利予約

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The following note from Gary Shilling was forwarded by John Mauldin of Thoughts For The Frontline. John includes a short note at the beginning and end. — Ed.

I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write a letter. But never fear, I leave you in the best of hands. Dr. Gary Shilling graciously agreed to condense his September letter, where he looks at the risk of another recession in the US.

I look forward at the beginning of each month to getting Gary's latest letter. I often print it out and walk away from my desk to spend some quality time reading his thoughts. He is one of my “must-read” analysts. I always learn something quite useful and insightful. I am grateful that he has let me share this with you.

If you are interested in getting his letter, his website is down being redesigned, but you can write for more information at insight@agaryshilling.com . If you want to subscribe (for $275), you can call 888-346-7444. Tell them that you read about it in Thoughts from the Frontline, and you will get an extra one month on your subscription. And now, let turn to Gary.

– John Mauldin

By Gary Shilling

Investor attitudes have reversed abruptly in recent months. As late as last March, most translated the year-long robust rise in stocks, foreign currencies, commodities and the weakness in Treasury bonds that had commenced a year earlier into robust economic growth – the “V” recovery.

As a result, investors early this year believed that rapid job creation and the restoration of consumer confidence would spur retail spending. They also saw the housing sector's evidence of stabilization giving way to revival, and strong export growth also propelling the economy. Capital spending, led by high tech, was another area of strength, many believed.

Not So Fast

But a funny flash websites, or not so funny flash websites, thing happened on the way to super-charged, capacity-straining growth. In April, investors began to realize that the eurozone financial crisis, which had been heralded at the beginning of the year by the decline in the euro, was a serious threat to global growth. Stocks retreated (Chart 1 ), commodities fell and Treasury bonds rallied and the dollar rose. It is, after all, just one big trade among these four markets, so their correlated actions on the down as well as the up side aren't surprising.

Furthermore, investors began to worry about the health of the US economy and the prospects for a second dip in the Great Recession that started in December 2007. The gigantic 2009 fiscal stimuli of close to $1 trillion was running out, threatening a relapse in an economy that was running on government life support. The $8,000 tax rebate for new home buyers was expiring April 30 and might be followed by a drop in house sales as had its predecessor that expired in November 2009 as the spike in activity early this year only borrowed from future sales. The outlook for exports had turned negative with the robust buck, sagging European economies and the current “stop” phase of China's “stop-go” monetary and fiscal policies. With unemployment remaining high last spring, investors began to fret that consumer spending would falter as fiscal stimuli was exhausted.

Deleveraging

Although investor views of the economy have reversed in the last five months, the reality probably hasn't. The good life and rapid growth that started in the early 1980s was fueled by massive financial leveraging and excessive debt, first in the global financial sector, starting in the 1970s and in the early 1980s among US consumers. That leverage propelled the dot com stock bubble in the late 1990s and then the housing bubble. But now those two sectors are being forced to delever and in the process are transferring their debts to governments and central banks.

This deleveraging will probably take a decade or more – and that's the good news. The ground to cover is so great that if it were traversed in a year or two, major economies would experience depressions worse than in the 1930s. This deleveraging and other forces will result in slow economic growth and probably deflation for many years. And as Japan has shown, these are difficult conditions to offset with monetary and fiscal policies.

The deleveragings of the global financial sector and US consumer arena are substantial and ongoing. Household debt is down $374 billion since the second quarter of 2008. The credit card and other revolving components as well as the non-revolving piece that includes auto and student loans are both declining. Total business debt is down, as witnessed by falling commercial and industrial loans.

Meanwhile, federal debt has exploded from $5.8 trillion on Sept. 30, 2008 to $8.8 trillion in late August. Many worry about the inflationary implications of this surge, but the reality is that public debt has simply replaced private debt. The federal deficit has leaped as consumers and business retrenched, which curtailed federal tax revenues, while fiscal stimulus, aimed at replacing private sector weakness, has mushroomed.

Four Cylinders

As discussed in our May 2010 Insight, in the typical post-World War II economic recovery, four cylinders fire to push the economic vehicle out of the recessionary mud and back out on to the highway of economic growth. At present, only one – the ending of inventory liquidation – is generating significant power. The other three – employment gains, consumer spending growth and a revival in residential construction – are sputtering at best.

The Inventory Cycle

Historically, the liquidation of excess inventories accounts for major shares of the decline in economic activity in recessions. Around business cycle peaks, the sales of manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers begin to weaken but their managers can't tell whether that's the beginning of a major drop in business or just a minor dip in an upward trend. So they delay cutting production and orders until the downward trend is firmly established. Meanwhile, inventory-sales ratios leap as the numerators, inventories, rise and the denominators, sales, fall. That makes cuts in production and orders imperative and propels the economic downward trend in the process.

That was also the case in the Great Recession. In our view, it really started in early 2007 with the collapse in subprime residential mortgages, and then spread to Wall Street that summer with the implosion of the two Bear Stearns hedge funds in June. But these were financial declines, and recessions are measured by production, employment and spending, which are dominated by the goods and nonfinancial services segments of the economy. So the recession didn't officially start until December 2007.

Consumers Go On Strike

Furthermore, it wasn't until late 2008 that the collapse in home equity as house prices nosedived (Chart 2), rising layoffs (Chart 3) and the drying up of consumer lending drove consumers into retrenchment. But they suddenly went on a buyers strike in the last four months of 2008, and the results were leaps in inventory-sales ratios. Consequently, the cuts in inventories to get rid of unwanted stocks were far and away the biggest in the post-World War II era.

The reduction in inventory liquidation has been key to economic growth starting in the second half of 2009. In the third quarter of last year, it accounted for 66% of the 1.6% annual rate real GDP gain and 58% of the fourth quarter's 5.0% advance. The inventory-building in the first quarter of this year was responsible for 67% of the 3.7% annual rate rise in real GDP and 36% of the rise of 1.6% in the second quarter. In total, in the last four quarters, the inventory swing provided 58% of the 3.0% rise in real GDP.

Whether inventories will continue to hype the economy remains to be seen. As of June, the inventory-sales ratio for retailers had returned to its downtrend, but was still above trend for wholesalers and, especially, manufacturers. Furthermore, it's one thing to complete the liquidation of unwanted inventories but another to rebuild them significantly. The latter probably requires sales strength originating in other areas of the economy, and the other three cylinders of the economic engine aren't providing it in meaningful ways. Quite the opposite. It appears that recently disappointing retail sales have stuck merchants with unwanted goods that may be liquidated if consumers continue to retrench.

Employment Lags

In post-World War II recessions before the 1990-1991 decline, payroll employment's bottom came close to the low point in the overall business decline and was followed by rapid rebounds (Chart 4 ). In the mild 1990-1991 and even shallower 2001 recessions, however, the job market remained weak for over a year into economic recovery. The same is true this time, assuming the economic decline ended in July 2009, as many believe. What's changed?

It isn't that a shallow recession results in weak job recovery because even though the 1990-1991 and 2001 downturns were mild, the Great Recession certainly wasn't in terms of jobs (Chart 4). A more likely explanation is that globalization, starting in the 1980s, forced American business to cut all costs vigorously, including labor costs, by outsourcing to domestic and foreign suppliers, promoting productivity and curtailing hiring. This has been especially prevalent in the last decade.

Jobs Lost Forever

Despite the huge employment losses since the end of 2007, many of those jobs are unlikely to return. Of the 7.7 million net nonfarm jobs eliminated between December 2007 and July of this year, 86% were in construction, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, finance and leisure and hospitality. These six sectors accounted for 44.5% of nonfarm payrolls in July, only about half as much as their losses. Furthermore, job losses in those industries spawned employment losses in service and other sectors that depend on them. Home building, for example, spurs employment in the production of appliances, furniture, home furnishings and homeowner insurance and provides revenues that support state and local employment.

Given the gigantic overhang of excess house inventories and resulting further price declines, it will be years before residential construction shows any meaningful revival, as we've explained in past Insights and will update next month. Similarly, financially troubled and massively vacant commercial real estate will inhibit new construction and jobs for many years.

The inventory cycle did stabilize manufacturing employment in recent months, but that inventory-related bounce is over and the 2 million manufacturing jobs lost since December 2007, if anything, will probably become an even bigger number. Goods production continues to move offshore. job-reducing productivity gains continue in manufacturing, and consumer retrenchment and deflation will continue to curtail consumer durable goods consumption. Wholesale and especially retail trade will continue under pressure with the 25-year consumer borrowing and spending binge now replaced by a saving spree (Chart 5). That retrenchment as well as persistent business spending restraint will continue to retard jobs in leisure and hospitality.

Financial activities jobs stabilized with the March 2009-March 2010 revival of Wall Street, but the likely continuance of more recent weakness in many securities markets will lead to more layoffs and bonus cuts. The federal government, naturally, has added people, 262,000 since December 2007, as it expands in response to the weak economy. But state governments cut 6,000 on balance and local municipalities 128,000, largely in education.

Diligent Cost-Cutting

American business has been diligently cutting costs since the recession started in December 2007, especially labor costs. A recent survey shows that over half of adults have been affected by some combination of layoffs, wage and benefits cuts, involuntary furloughs and involuntary shifts to temporary jobs. Many may never be restored to their earlier statuses. Those layoffs lucky enough to find new jobs often are paid less than earlier.

About 20% of major employers with over 1,000 workers cut or eliminated their 401(k) plan contributions during the downturn but half have failed to restore them so far. Of those with 500 or fewer employees that cut contributions, only 36% have reinstated them or plan to in the next 12 months, according to a Fidelity Investments survey. Furthermore, 10% of all employers plan to reduce or eliminate matching 401(k) contributions in the next year.

Consumer Spending

All the layoffs, involuntary furloughs, and temporary jobs and benefit and wage reductions have been instrumental in the rebound in corporate profits, but devastating to employee compensation. This spells weakness for consumer spending. Also, consumers are no longer saving less and borrowing more on credit card, home equity and other loans to bridge the gap between income and desired spending growth. Furthermore, home equity has evaporated (Chart 6 ) and tight lending standards on credit card and other loans prevail. So they're on a saving spree and debt reduction binge, further slashing the outlook for consumer spending, the third cylinder that normally fires to propel economic recovery from recessions.

In fact, without massive fiscal stimuli, subdued compensation and the recession would have pushed consumer outlays down substantially. Our calculations show that consumers saved 80% of the tax rebates they received in the summer of 2008. And they initially saved 100% of 2009′s tax cuts and special payments of $250 for each Social Security beneficiary. Those actions resulted in the spikes in the saving rate shown in Chart 5. This is remarkable since the tax cuts did not go to highincome people, normally the only big savers. Also, those folks are relatively few in number so they received few of the extra Social Security checks. Consequently, middle- and lower-income households stepped out of character to save heavily.

Households are deleveraging their balance sheets with a vengeance. Since the end of the fourth quarter of 2007 when stocks began to collapse, personal sector assets have fallen $3.0 trillion. Some $1.8 trillion was in equities and $277 billion in mutual funds due to losses on balance and withdrawals from equity direct ownership and from mutual funds. Investors put money into mutual funds on balance in January, March and April, but cut their holdings, especially in stock funds, in May and June. Also, private pension reserves fell $754 billion from the end of 2007 to the end of March 2010 and government pension reserves in household accounts were down $290 billion. Increases of Treasury bond holdings of $533 only partially offset the decline in government agency and securities of $593 billion. Meanwhile, liabilities of the personal sector dropped $500 billion, largely due to the decline in mortgage and consumer debt as some debts were repaid while others were written off as hopeless.

Support By Government

Since the recession began in December 2007 through June 2010, personal income from wages and salaries, proprietors' income, rents, interest, dividends and transfers such as pension benefits, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid payments and unemployment insurance increased $285 billion. It would have declined $247 billion without a $532 billion increase in government transfer payments. These increases in government transfers also flowed through to Disposable Personal Income (after-tax income), which further benefited by lower personal taxes that fell $382 billion due to tax cuts and the lower taxable income resulting from layoffs, wage declines and bonus cuts.

In total, DPI was enhanced by $532 billion from the increase in government transfers and $382 billion from the lower taxes. Without these significant boosts, DPI would have fallen $247 billion since December 2007 instead of rising $667 billion. Without question, and much more so than in any previous post-World War II recession, the consumer has been supported by massive government money in the form of increased transfers and tax cuts. And these numbers do not include wages from jobs created by federal spending on infrastructure or saved by federal transfers to state and local governments to curtail teacher layoffs and other employment reductions.

Where Did The Money Go?

What happened to that $667 billion increase in DPI and what does it tell us about the likelihood of a chronic consumer saving spree? About 43% of it was spent and 64% saved, so maybe some of the earlier tax cuts were spent, but with delays. Nevertheless, a 64% marginal saving rate does seem to support our chronic saving spree thesis.

Also, in terms of spending and saving, note that whatever has been going on in the consumer arena has been supported by massive federal stimuli. Those stimuli may persist at near current levels in future years due to chronic high unemployment, as noted in earlier Insights, but seems unlikely to rise at the rates they did since the recession began due to their effects on the already massive federal deficits. Republicans and even some Democrats in Congress are so worried about the mushrooming deficit that current stimuli is unlikely to be renewed at least until unemployment leaps further. In that case, the resulting withdrawal of support for consumer outlays may push them down. So the leap in consumer spending as a share of personal income (Chart 7 ), which has been propelled by tax cuts that were only partially offset by saving increases, is highly unlikely to persist.

Evidence of recent consumer retrenchment is rampant. Consumer confidence has flattened as people worry about employment and income prospects as well as losses on their stocks and houses. Credit card loans outstanding fell 10% last year and promise to fall further as consumers repay debt, lending standards tighten and the new federal law cuts the profitability of credit card lending. Meanwhile, banks report that demand for consumer loans continues to drop, although at declining rates.

Increased saving is not only being used to repay debt but also to rebuild 401(k)s. Fidelity Investments found that in the second quarter, 5.3% of participants raised their contribution while 2.9% reduced them. That excess of increases over decreased has persisted for five quarters and follows three quarters of the reverse. Still, the numbers that tapped their accounts for loans or hardship withdrawals also rose.

Subdued Spending

On the spending side, vehicle sales in July were at an 11.5 million annual rate, up from the sub-10 million levels of 2008-2009, but well below the pre-recession levels. Consumer spending on TVs, computers, videos and telephone equipment rose 1.8% in the first half of 2010 compared with a year earlier while appliance purchases fell 3.6% and furniture outlays dropped 11%. Apparel sales also lost out to electronic gadgets. This shift reflects two forces. First, consumers are saving more and spending less on equipping their houses that are no longer appreciating but now depreciating assets. Second, they still want the satisfaction of buying iPads and other Small Luxuries, an investment theme we identified years ago and explained fully in our August Insight.

Housing Remains Depressed

The housing sector is an important generator of the normal economic recovery even though residential construction only accounts for 4.7% of GDP on average in the post-World War II years. It's the volatility that matters. Residential construction was 6.3% of GDP at its recent peak in the fourth quarter of 2005, but fell to 2.4% at its low in the first quarter of 2010. This 3.9 percentage point decline is very significant, considering that a 3% top to bottom decline in real GDP constitutes a major recession.

State and Local Government Spending

Spending by state and local governments is not one of the sources of economic revival after recessions end because it has been such a steady 12% to 13% share of GDP since the early 1970s. In the early post-World War II decades, it grew rapidly to finance the education of the postwar babies and the growth of mushrooming suburbs. Municipalities have also provided a steady source of jobs since, until recently, many fewer employees were laid off or fired than in the private sector and relatively few quit. Years ago, the “social contract” held that those employees received lower wages than private sector workers, so early retirement provisions and lush pensions allowed them to catch up in their later years. But since the early 1980s, the private sector has been globalized with very little growth in real incomes. Meanwhile, state and local government employees have continued to receive pay raises in excess of inflation and now have wages that are 34% higher than for private sector employees (Chart 8).

Federal Help

As part of its fiscal stimulus program, the federal government is transferring $246 billion to state governments to prevent more school teacher layoffs, help fund Medicaid cost increases and plug other holes in state budgets. Federal money is filling 30% to 40% of state budget gaps, but 46 states are projecting a collective deficit of $121 billion for the 2011 fiscal year that begins next July 1, equivalent to 19% of their budgets. And 39 states see gaps that total $102 billion for fiscal 2012. Unless federal assistance continues, these deficits will be much larger. All the states but Vermont are required to balance their budgets in one form or another, but most are honored in the breach as fiscal gimmicks and creative accounting get really creative.

Budget legerdemain no doubt is related to the rapid growth in state spending in recent years and leap in debt. State and local governments now use debt to fund investments that used to be done on a current budget basis, and some issue debt to cover up routine budget shortfalls. Total state and local bond debt outstanding leaped 93% between 2000 and 2009, from $1.2 trillion to $2.3 trillion.

It obviously takes a lot of gnashing of teeth in the outer darkness for state and local government to flatten, much less cut, their spending after a decade of 6% to 7% annual growth rates. Jumping municipal employment is the main reason for mushrooming spending in earlier years, and cutting often unionized state and local workforces is very difficult. Since the Great Recession started in December 2007 through April, private payroll employment has dropped 6.8%. Still, state and local jobs have declined but by much less, only 1.4%. In July, state and local governments, which employ 9.5 million, cut 48,000 jobs, 102,000 in the past three months and 169,000 so far this year.

Raise Taxes

In reaction to their financial woes, many state and local governments have attempted to raise taxes and fees. The usual suspects include higher sin taxes on tobacco and alcoholic beverages as well as taxes on companies based out of state but doing some business in the state. Attempts to raise taxes and cut spending have proved wholly inadequate to solving state and local government funding problems. And those woes appear chronic, especially if our forecast of slow economic growth and even deflation is valid. Rises in taxable personal and corporate incomes will be muted. Retail sales and taxes on them will be sluggish as consumers persist for the next decade in their saving spree, replacing the borrowing and spending binge of the last decade.

House prices are likely to fall further in the next year or so, under the weight of gigantic excess inventories. Even when those inventories are worked off, house prices will probably rise little, if at all, in a low inflation or deflationary climate. Historically, they've been flat after correcting for overall inflation and the growing size of houses over time. And now that house prices have fallen nationwide for the first time since the 1930s, home buyers no longer see their abodes as also great, leveraged investments, and want smaller, cheaper houses. That will also reduce assessments on property taxes.

Meanwhile, commercial real estate high vacancies and severe financial problems will take years to resolve, keeping prices depressed for some time (Chart 9 ). So, all things considered, local government property taxes are likely to be curtailed for many years. Meanwhile, municipal expenses will be hard to cut. Chronic high unemployment will spawn high Medicaid enrollment and costs. Welfare and unemployment benefit costs will no doubt rise as well.

Deteriorating finances are raising the risks of defaults on state and local obligations and even municipal bankruptcies. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania's capital, will not make a $3.3 million municipal bond payment on $51.5 million debt that's due in two weeks, and earlier this year, city officials discussed bankruptcy. Harrisburg also lacks the funds to continue payments for the $288 million debt on an incinerator project. Earlier, Jefferson County, Ala., home of Birmingham, defaulted on $227 million due on its disastrous sewer upgrades.

Taxpayer Revolt?

People working in the private sector apparently were willing to accept the higher pay, more job security and better retirement benefits for state and local employees in past years. High employment in the private sector and robust economic growth at least held out the hope that their lots would improve tomorrow. But with slow economic growth, limited income expansion and high unemployment now expected by them for years, voter attitudes appear to be changing.

Americans still want basic municipal services like police and fire protection, good schools for their kids, clean streets and garbage collection. But they apparently are deciding they're paying too much for those services; that 34% higher wages for state and local employees compared to private sector workers isn't justified as pay cuts multiply in the private sector and those laid off earn much less if and when they can find another job; that 66% higher benefit costs is over the top, especially as private sector employees are paying more of their health care premiums and seeing their defined benefit pension plans replaced by much more uncertain 401(k)s.

As taxpayers revolt, there are plenty of things that can be done to reduce state and local government costs in an orderly way. Following in the footsteps of bankrupt GM, two-tier wage structures are being established with existing employees continuing at current salary levels, but new hires paid the much lower wages adequate to attract qualified people. And the new people are enrolled in defined contribution pension plans that require employee contributions, not defined benefit plans, while their retirement ages are increased.

外国貿易

Another economic sector that normally isn'ta significant engine of economic recovery but is important at present is exports since the Administration hopes they will double in the next five years and provide meaningful economic growth. The President's zeal to achieve that goal rises as he realizes that massive fiscal stimuli have not revived the economy, and already-huge federal deficits impede further rounds of big spending.

But two significant problems are likely to retard export growth in future years – rising protectionism that clearly impedes foreign trade, and finding foreign countries that will buy this doubling of American exports. It's like the story of the stockbroker who calls his client during May's Flash Crash to tell him that stocks are collapsing. “Sell my entire portfolio!” yells the distressed client. “Sure,” retorts the broker, “but to whom? There are no buyers.”

Foreign Buyers?

As far as foreign buyers of US exports is concerned, the reality is that many of those markets that are showing robust growth and therefore might be able to absorb American products, lands like China and Germany, are major exporters themselves, not importers on balance. Indeed, it's no surprise that the EU's measures of both industry and household confidence shows that export-led Germany has the highest level while the economically weak Club Med net importers are at the bottom of the pile (Chart 10).

Currency changes have only limited effects on export or import prices. The volatility of US import prices is only about one-fourth that of the dollar and a third in the case of American export prices. なぜですか？ Many products are sold under long-term contracts and immune from most currency fluctuations. Also, importers and exporters resist reflecting the full extent of exchange rate changes in their prices. If the yen is strong against the dollar, importers of Lexus cars shave their profit margins to offset some of the higher prices in dollars to avoid losing market share. Conversely, US exporters to Japan don't pass on in lower yen prices the full extent of the dollar's decline in order to increase their profits.

The “processing trade” in which components are imported, assembled and then re-exported makes up about half of Chinese exports. This reduces the importance of the yuan's exchange rates. Furthermore, even goods with more domestic content aren't completely sensitive to exchange rates in a global world. About 50% of a Chinese manufacturer of children's clothes costs are fabric and around 50% of the fabric's costs are cotton, a globally-traded commodity priced in dollars. So, 25% of the total cost is not affected by yuan fluctuations. Also, another 25% might be in the combined profits of the clothing and the fabric producers, and could be adjusted to offset currency fluctuations – or production moved to lower-cost Vietnam or Bangladesh if the yuan leaped in value.

Double Dip Recession?

We've made our case for very slow US economic growth in the quarters, indeed the years, ahead. The economic rebound due to the inventory cycle is over. Employment and consumer spending remain weak. Housing is too overburdened with excess inventory and the resulting price weakness to revive any time soon. State and local government spending and employment are retreating. And meaningful export gains are unlikely as economic growth abroad slips. Interestingly, the consensus forecast is moving toward our position as growth estimates have been reduced rapidly in recent months. In both April and June, the Wall Street Journal's poll of economists (not including us) expected 3% economic growth in the second half of this year. We wonder if they still do.

Will slow growth deteriorate into another recession, the so-called double dip scenario? Before exploring that question, let's define a double dip. It seems to mean a second period of economic decline following the 2007-2009 nosedive. That could imply that the recession that the accepted authority, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research, pinpointed as commencing in December 2007, is still underway. Sure, real GDP grew in the last four quarters, but it's common to have quarters of gain within recessions. In the 11 post-World War II recessions so far, seven, including the 2007- 2009 decline, had at least one quarter of rising real GDP within the recession. In fact, two – the 1960-1961 and the 2001 declines – didn't even have two quarters of consecutive decline. Even in the 1929-1933 economic collapse, GDP rose in six quarters.

Still, to have a four-quarter interlude between the declining phases of the same recession would be unprecedentedly long, assuming that real GDP declines in the current quarter. So another period of economic weakness could be classified as a second recession, much as the 1981-1982 decline, which started in July 1981, only 12 months after the 1980 recession ended.

Slow Growth to Recession

We're on record for a 50% or higher probability of a second dip or another recession, whatever it would be called. The composition of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index remains proprietary, but its growth rate has fallen to the level that in the past was always associated with recessions (Chart 11). Historically, however, recessions have been propelled by shocks. The post- World War II downturns prior to 2001 were caused by Fed tightening in response to threats of economic overheating and the resulting higher inflation. Since then, other shocks have been responsible. The 2001 recession resulted from the 2000 collapse of the dot com bubble augmented by the 9/11 shock. The 2007-2009 downturn resulted from the collapse in subprime residential mortgages that commenced early in 2007.

In the current economic and financial climate, it's highly unlikely that the Fed will tighten credit for years. In fact, the central bank has shifted from planning last spring to withdraw liquidity as the economy grew to renewing quantitative easing and worrying about deflation and subpar growth. It said after its August 10 policy meeting that household spending is being retarded by high unemployment, slow income growth, lower home equity and tight credit conditions while bank lending “has continued to contract.”

Pushing On A String

Conventional monetary ease is now impotent with the federal funds rate close to zero , the money multiplier collapsed and banks sitting on hoards of cash (Chart 12) and over $1 trillion in excess reserves. Sure, large banks report to the Fed that they are easing lending standards for small business, but after the intervening financial crisis, many fewer potential borrowers are deemed creditworthy than in the loose lending days. Furthermore, the small business trade group, the National Federation of Independent Business, reports that 91% of small business owners have had their credit needs met or business is so slow that they don't want to borrow. The Fed is pushing on the proverbial string.

The Fed also worries about deflation, which means that even zero interest rates are positive in real terms, as has been the case for years in deflationary Japan. Also, deflation encourages buyers to wait for still-lower prices in a self-feeding cycle, as is seen in Japan and as we have discussed often in conjunction with our forecast of 2% to 3% per year chronic deflation. In it s post- August 10 meeting statement, the Fed said that “measures of underlying inflation,” already low, “have trended lower” lately and are “likely to be subdued for some time.” James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, recently warned of the risks of deflation.

Deflation is a scary phenomenon, but we can't resist noting that the Fed as well as many other forecasters are moving in the direction of our forecast. In contrast, an April 6 Wall Street Journal piece by Peter Eavis stated unequivocally, “No one in their right mind would bet on inflation remaining substantially below 4% for the next 10 years.” Maybe we better have our head examined.

A Baby Step

So, with conventional monetary ease exhausted and further fiscal stimulus on hold because of the already-huge federal deficit, the Fed at its August 10 meeting took a baby step toward more quantitative ease by deciding to buy Treasury bonds to replace the maturing and refinanced Treasury and mortgage-backed securities in the $1.7 trillion hoard it finished buying earlier this year. With low mortgage rates, refinancings were projected to raise the Fed's portfolio contraction from an earlier estimate of $200 billion by the end of 2011 to $340 billion, with another $55 billion coming from retirement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt held by the Fed.

Furthermore, the Fed is open to further steps if the economy continues to slip. It could buy even more Treasurys or mortgage debt. But would the resulting lower interest rates encourage prospective home buyers who now know that house prices can and do fall? Would another $1 trillion in excess reserves induce more bank lending than the first $1 trillion? The Fed could also promise to keep short-term interest rates low, but it's already said it would for an “extended period.”

It could cut out the 0.25% it pays the banks on their reserves, but would that induce reluctant banks to lend? Finally, the Fed could set an inflation target over its formal 1.5% to 2.0% range. That would be anathema for inflation-wary central bankers, and how could the Fed hit that target in a deflationary world where ample supply exceeds weak demand? Despite all the credit easing actions that Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his famous November 2002 speech, said the Fed could take if the federal funds target reached zero, the credit authorities are about out of ammo – except for dumping money out of helicopters. Remember the “Helicopter Ben” moniker?

Other Shocks

If the Fed is highly unlikely to shock slow growth into recession, what could? This brings us back to the series of seemingly isolated events that are occurring on the deleveraging road, such as further financial woes in Europe, a crisis in commercial real estate, a nosedive in the Chinese economy and a slow motion train wreck in Japan. They are all possibilities – as are other shocks here or abroad that we don't foresee. Maybe the exhausting of federal stimulus will be enough to trigger an economic downturn. Keep your eyes pealed, however, because it won't take much disruption to push the fragile global economy back into decline.

Gary Shilling

John Mauldin…

Houston, My Book, and New York

Tuesday was a very special day. My co-author, Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception (based in London), and I spent the entire day reading the first complete rough draft of our forthcoming book, The End Game. We went cover to cover, making comments and notes. Of course, I had read the bits and pieces, but not in one sitting. I have to say that I am more than happy. It is a very good first draft, much better than I thought it would be. There is a lot of work ahead, of course, to try and make it a great book, but I can “feel” it. And I think we have managed to capture some very difficult topics and make them simple and maybe even a fun read. We are on target for a January 1 launch.

We make what I feel is an overwhelming case for a period of slow growth in the developed world, with more volatility as the base case. The research we review is very strong. But there are pockets of potential if you step back and take off your localized blinders.

I will be in Houston (along with Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Bill King, and Jon Sundt) at the one-day X-Factor Conference on October 1. Quite the lineup. You can learn more by going to www.streettalklive.com . Then I will be in New York in late October, speaking at the BCA conference and a few media events.

It has been interesting talking with investment types in Europe. They are very curious about the US and what they perceive as our lack of seriousness about the deficit. It appears that Greece has focused their attention. And of course, I get off the plane from Malta yesterday and the headline in the Financial Times says, “Greece rules out possibility of default.” I know that made me feel better. And gave us all a laugh. If you have not, read the piece from Michael Lewis in Vanity Fair on Greece. And then share my amusement about the chances of no default.

It is time to hit the send button. I feel a nap coming on. Jet lag has been worse than normal this trip. And maybe another glass of Prosecco to ease me into slumberland.

Your excited about almost finishing this book analyst,

John Mauldin
John@FrontLineThoughts.com

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We visited the Ojai, California high school set of the sassy new comedy Easy A last year and saw pretty actress Emma Stone doing a come hither song and dance in a high school gym wearing a hot, lacy bustier and some sexy black stockings. Now… after finally seeing the film, we get it!

Emma plays Olive, a good student/good girl who agrees to help out a male pal by pretending to hook up with him to build his rep with his buds. It works great but the word spreads that Olive is easy and more. How does she beat the rep and get the guy of her dreams? Check out the film opening Sept. 17th.

We're at the 4 Seasons Hotel in Beverly Hills for a sitdown with witty, funny flash websites fellow red-head Emma who is always friendly and ready to spill all! With her hair up and wearing a dark, flower-patterned dress by McQ and 6 inch (at least) beige platform stiletto s by Valentino, the star looks very Hollywood glam. We like her mauve nail polish and big, gold, filigree disc earrings.

As Emma comes in for our chat about her role and the classic '80′s films she loves, we notice that the petite girl is suddenly at least as tall as we are (5'7″). It's those shoes! She puts down her coffee and models them for us.

Emma: Tallest shoes I've ever worn in my life! Wanna know how tall I really am? This is messed up. Check this out [she takes off the shoes and sinks about a foot. We laugh].

TeenHollywood: Okay so super high heels are in with you. After doing the movie, are you a big fan of bustiers now?

Emma: [laughs] Oh yeah. I'ma real 'supporter' of bustiers. I'ma real supporter of that which supports me. Those were from my own personal collection.

TeenHollywood: You seem to be such a thorough preparer for your work. So, did you read Nathaniel Hawthorne's “The Scarlet Letter”?

Emma: No. It's embarrassing to say but I can not tell a lie. 私はしませんでした。 Here's how I'll justify it. Once I got the part, it was go time. We were starting about two weeks after I wrapped Zombieland so, to me, it was so important to have the script completely memorized before we started like you would a play or something so I was so obsessed with reading the script over and over and getting those words down that there were no other books I was reading at the time.

TeenHollywood: It's cool how the book ties in with the movie. Did books effect you a lot as a teen?

Emma: I feel like, when you're a teenager or when you're young, do you remember when you read books or watched movies or listened to music and you made it apply to your life no matter what it was? You're like 'Oh, this book really gets me.' Or 'The Beatles really understand me, specifically' [we laugh]. You made it your own.

TeenHollywood: When you were a teen, were you in the “Let's not and say we did” group of girls?

Emma: Well, I didn't have that traditional high school experience and I was kind of on my own. I was in LA and most of my friends from theater were a bit older than me and in college or whatever. When I was 16 I was friends with some of the people I'm friends with now, and it was a different thing. I talked to my mom more about stuff like that than I did my friends because I wasn't really hanging out with girls my age. So, that [doing it or not] was really more a conversation between my mom and I so you can probably tell where I fell in what category [laughter].

TeenHollywood: Did you do anything when you were a teen to get attention because Olive likes the attention she is getting for a while?

Emma: Only theater and what I do now [laughs]. I was such a ham.. such a ham [she rolls her eyes]. I was awful! Oh my God, always loud. I was _that _kid.

TeenHollywood: With friends or out in public? Would you be at the mall and suddenly just break into song?

Emma: Oh no, no, definitely not that. That would be embarrassing but it was with friends. I was pretty hammy. But, this hopefully, has curbed. When I was a kid I was also bossy and that's a bad combination; a hammy, bossy kid. So, my mom tried to get that out of me pretty quickly.

TeenHollywood: Are you the oldest child?

Emma: Yeah and my brother is just so sweet. He's great and quiet and I've always wanted to be more like him; only speak when you have something really important to say. I'm just like 'wa, wa, wa, wa, wa' and none of it matters.

TeenHollywood: We've talked before and I think you were home schooled. Did you ever have the chance to be the “cool girl”, the “drama girl” or anything?

Emma: Yes, I was home schooled so all of the above. I didn't really have a traditional high school experience. I did go to a high school for a semester of my Freshman year but it wasn't really long enough to be able to gage all that.

TeenHollywood: So then was it difficult to get into this character not having a high school experience?

Emma: Not really because I didn't feel it was a high school movie parse. We're not really dealing with any of the traditional things; graduation or prom or any of the rights of passage of high school. It was more a story about reputation and technology [fast rumor spreading] and judgment and it just happened to be through the eyes of a 17-year-old girl but you don't really see us doing too much 'school-ish' stuff even though we're in the hallways a lot.

TeenHollywood: That's true. But, as a young actor, you go through a similar thing; you're always being scrutinized by the media and your reputation is kind of out there for better or worse. Can you relate to it on that level?

Emma: Probably. There's definitely an element of that. I wouldn't say as much personally because my life is a pretty standard, livable life. There's a lot of other actresses my age that wouldn't be able to say that so I'm lucky but, seeing that and watching that happen, there's probably definitely an element of that.

TeenHollywood: This is really your film. Did you feel extra pressure or go about it like any acting role?

Emma: For me it was less about the size of the role and trying to bring Olive to life in the most accurate way I could to the script. That pressure was what I was thinking about. It wasn't how many lines there were or how many scenes I was in, it was more playing her accurately and making sure that she stayed how she was on the page because she was so fleshed out and fantastic in writing. I don't know if I did her justice but I tried. [we tell her she did].

TeenHollywood: Was the family dog in the film as lovable as he looked?

Emma: Yes. It had halitosis, so incredibly lovable….but smelly!

TeenHollywood: We understand that you went home after your audition for the part and made a webcam video? Was that just on your own?

Emma: No. [Director] Will [Gluck] asked me to do that.

TeenHollywood: It worked great. You're a computer person, right?

Emma: Bigtime, yeah. But I was horrified when he asked me, 'Can you go home after you've been working on this audition and memorizing these things, can you go home and send me a webcam of you?' I was like 'Oh God'. Because it's one thing in the audition room when you're like 'Oh, I wish I hadn't done that but they're making me leave'.

When you go home and you have to record yourself and have so many opportunities to watch it again and beat yourself up and delete it and do it again and again and again before you finally send it in, it feel like you put a stamp on it, 'This is what I think is the best thing I could do'. It was the first monologue of the movie. It was like a minute long.

TeenHollywood: Are you on Facebook and do you tweet?

Emma: No. I love it. I completely understand it. I was into websites when I was a kid, making them and I thought that was what I wanted to do but that was 1999 and 2000 and there weren't blogs yet. It was the age of e-zines; you would sign up and get them in your e-mail. It was just when Flash had come around and I was dabbling in Flash but it's such a complicated program so I kind of faded out.

TeenHollywood: So, you love computers and the internet but no Facebook or tweeting? I'm confused.

Emma: Social networking and blogs are so fascinating to me but I have an addictive personality and the second I get involved in something like that it will consume me. I didn't want to be consumed by Twitter. I didn't want to be a slave to Twitter so I've had to limit myself and have a little phone detox time and take a little hit of IM once in a while.

TeenHollywood: Makes total sense! Your co-star Penn said he hadn't seen most of the John Hughes '80′s movies this film references. Had you?

Emma: [She nods big "yes"]. あなたは本気ですか？ He hadn't seen them? 私はそれを知りませんでした。 Had he seen Say Anything ? [NOTE: This was actually a Cameron Crowe movie,.. written and directed by.. not John Hughes]

TeenHollywood: He said no but he knows the [famous] photo [of John Cusack holding up the boom box].

Emma: He'd seen it on a t-shirt? Oh my Lord, that's all I watched when I was a kid. My dad, when it comes to comedy, that was his favorite. The first movie I ever remember watching was The Jerk then Planes, Trains and Automobiles, Animal House, Ferris Bueller's Day Off and The Breakfast Club. Planes, Trains and Automobiles is a John Hughes movie, don't forget. The brilliance of John Hughes was so exciting.

I know Will feels the same way because he's his favorite director. It was so exciting to get to pay tribute and homage to John Hughes because he told his stories in the most empathetic way. That's why they still resonate [when you're] an adult. They might be set in high school but that's a universal truth. He was just absolutely phenomenal.

TeenHollywood: In Easy A , you had the musical number for no reason what-so-ever, like in “Ferris Bueller”. How hard was that to shoot for you?

Emma: It was a little interesting being dressed like that and singing and dancing in front of your peers but I must admit it was actually pretty fun because I grew up doing musical theater so, even though I'm not really a big singer or dancer anymore, it was fun to get to do that. My “hammy' side is coming back in. [She wiggles her shoulders in "sexy" mode] 'Oh yeah! I got a boa. I get to do this'. Oh Lord.

TeenHollywood: What interested you about the character of Olive?

Emma: Everything. I thought she was just layered and realistic and funny flash websites, clever and confused and, the story that she goes through was very interesting to me thematically and her relationship with her parents and her friends and how she takes the matter into her own hands [was great].

Usually a false rumor gets started about you and all you want to do is deny it and she decides to take it to the next level and see what it's like to go for it full-throttle because she knows the truth. And, I like that she was bold enough to know that if it's not hurting anybody, then why does it matter? When it starts to hurt people, that's when things start to spiral out of control but, when it's only her dealing with it, she just has fun with it and is a confident girl that knows herself well enough to know the truth and be comfortable with that.

TeenHollywood: How many takes for the bedroom scene to end all bedroom scenes? [She and her guy friend are jumping around on a bed pretending to be getting it on].

Emma: Oh my God. Too many. There were so many angles in that scene. It went on and on but it was one of my favorite scenes when I read the script. I thought it was so funny flash websites. You've got to be a pretty bold girl and guy to go to a party with all those people dressed like that acting like that. She doesn't even drink and she's so “drunk”.

TeenHollywood: Were you really out of breath doing that scene and needed oxygen. It was in the press kit…

Emma: I love that it was in the press kit. Will Gluck is an ass! Yes, I had an asthma attack without having asthma. I've been making an Olive pun about it, saying I have adult “on set” asthma [groans]. I've only had one asthma attack in my life and it was that day. They just showed me the behind-the-scenes thing from the DVD where Will is talking about my asthma attack and he goes 'I don't even think Em's ever even seen the inside of a gym so..' He's such an ass. Of course he's gonna tell that story [she laughs].

TeenHollywood: What's coming up for you?

Emma: There's a movie coming out in April called Crazy Stupid Love and I'm shooting a movie called The Help based on the book, in Mississippi. We're shooting right now. それは信じられないことだ。 You've got to read the book. It's just fantastic.

TeenHollywood: So you did read that one.

Emma: Yes. I was talking to Viola Davis who plays one of the lead characters. She's so unbelievable saying the other day. 'when we're on the press tour for The Help I think we should say, 'and then halfway through shooting, someone said there's a book and we thought we should read that'. So, if we see you next year we won't be able to pull that fast one on you. But I might try to pull it a couple of times.

TeenHollywood: Do you have scenes with Bryce Dallas [Howard]?

Emma: Oh yeah. She's got flippy bright red hair in the movie but I wear a blonde wig. We're in these crinolines and we all have our Maidenform bras and girdles. it's fantastic. [Southern accent] We're all talkin' like that.

By Niall Kitson

The other day I came across a t-shirt in a shop on Grafton Street that gave me a chuckle. In nice bright writing across the chest it read “Don't Google it, just ask me”.

It's funny flash websites but it also sums up the current state of the internet, specifically the ways we find information and how reliable we consider it. Academics would call what's going on a 'paradigm shift' – a fundamental change in the way we understand something.

広告

But, unlike the fields of science and literature the term was initially applied to, the web is an exponentially expanding phenomenon, equal parts process and discourse. It's the merging of these two occasionally opposed elements that consist of a new understanding of how to navigate the web for content that's relevant to the user but also immersive, engaging and trustworthy.

The main players in the game are also somewhat unlikely bedfellows: Google and its scientific, orderly methodology, and social networks with their subjective noise and narrow personal networks (note: the average number of friends per user on Facebook is 130).

From these apparently opposed perspectives we are expected to make sense of the world? Well…yes. But it's not as awful as it sounds.

To go back to my t-shirt at the start of this piece let's take the first half of the print: “Don't Google it”. Why wouldn't you Google something? Well aside from appearing completely uninterested in engaging another human being in conversation, using a search engine to find information comes with certain risks.

Google's mission statement is all about the organisation of all the information in the world across all media – print, audio, video and whatever comes over the horizon. Since its founding Google has been about process; the sorting and organisation of other people's content based on an algorithm that looks for value not solely on the proliferation of keywords in body text (although that does help) but the links between websites.

If this piece were to appear on a random blog in the ether you probably would not be able to find it. Put it in a highly organised and optimised environment as this website and you can find it in a flash. That's the way Google works at its most efficient – letting the hive mind of the internet (ie the users) decide what's interesting (if not accurate) and giving it prominence by a democratic process of linking.

The problem with this model, which has served the web for so long, is that raw information is not what the web thrives on anymore, it's discourse.

Shaping the conversation

This brings us to the second half of the print: “Just ask me”. When in doubt who better to ask that a trusted source like a friend or newspaper of record? If you have a problem why would you shout your question into a crowded room of faceless strangers when you could ask your friend – who you know is an expert – or read a newspaper whose level of reporting you rate.

If you would rather do that then welcome to the world of social media – where networks are small, exposure to information managed and the people you share it with less likely to be arbitrarily abusive.

Anyone who uses social networks like Twitter and Facebook knows that, as valuable as they are for keeping up with friends and fostering connections, they make excellent walled gardens for spreading news, asking advice and seeking recommendations for just about anything.

In fact it could be argued that the top thing people do online now is not search but engage in dialogue. The challenge for 'old fashioned' search engines like Google and Bing is how to integrate the wisdom of crowds in finding sources of information (process) with conversation from multiple social sources as quickly as questions can be asked or stories broken (conversation).

The development of such a 'real-time web' of instant reportage and analysis is a complex problem but it seems Google has an answer.

Launched this week, Google Instant has been touted as one way to speed up searches based on combinations of letters as they are input into the search bar. Consider it something like what happens when you type in an address and it completes itself based on your browsing history.

It's a simple move designed to cut down on search times. Another component to Google's real-time search formula is 'Trends'. Already familiar to Twitter users (who tag contributions to specific topics with a '#' symbol so developments can be easily followed) the idea here is that information from social networks can be integrated into regular search to give a sense not only of the raw material but its interpretation in real time.

For example if a political or financial story breaks and is reported on this site you can gauge the progress of the conversation around it and its popularity. Consider it the equivalent of posting a link to a story on your Facebook wall and having your friends comment on it…only on a global scale. Tweets, status updates, discussion forums, anything with open access can be aggregated and delivered as part of a concise package of results that changes as soon as new content is published making for a constantly evolving resource.

Such is the new model of search that analysis and bare fact will be treated as complementing instead of competing sources of information. “Don't Google, just ask me” won't be about choosing between processes, just scale.

Niall Kitson is editor of PC Live! and co-host of TechLife

For more on technology, listen to the podcast at www.pcliveradio.ie

Lately, I've been feeling very self-conscious when talking on the phone in public, and it's not because I'm worried about strangers listening in on my private conversations.

Rather, it's because the cellphone I'm using — the recently released Dell Streak — is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin — a fraction the size of Apple's popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display.

Yet Dell insists it is also a phone and, as such, it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google's Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's big size is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth to me. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smartphone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smartphones, though.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software — version 1.6 — which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos.

Dell says the Streak will get what is currently the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by the decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available on a number of current smartphones.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease.

Fortunately, the Streak comes with a fully functional 5-megapixel digital camera on its back. The camera takes sharp images and has a bright flash, and the display functions as perhaps the biggest viewfinder you've ever used. There are plenty of options for adjusting your shots, and I was able to take a bunch of crisp shots. You'll need to hold it steady while snapping, though, because the Streak takes a long time to take a photo after you've pressed its shutter button.

And you'll probably want to use headphones with the Streak, as the quality of its built-in speaker is dismal. When watching a Ted Leo And The Pharmacists music video online, the sound was muddled, even at a low volume. Because the speaker is located on the Streak's back, it gets even harder to hear when you set the gadget down.

Fresher software will surely improve the Streak, but whether you're looking for a phone, a tablet computer or both, the Streak falls short. Performance-wise, that is; in reality, it's anything but.

Motorola has published another full-page ad for one of its Android devices, and takes a poke at the iPhone's inability to access Flash.

で<！ - - >
Eric Zeman

InformationWeek
September 3, 2010 02:21 PM

By RACHEL METZ Associated Press
Published: 8/31/2010  2:20 AM
Last Modified: 8/31/2010  7:49 AM

Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using – the just-released Dell Streak – is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak – $300 with a two-year AT&T contract – is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it's fairly small and thin – a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display.

Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, they streamed well

from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen, but they didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software – version 1.6 – which means it's missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching videos.

Dell Inc. says the Streak will get what is currently the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only currently enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update.

Fortunately, the Streak comes with a fully functional 5-megapixel digital camera on its back. The camera takes sharp images and has a bright flash, and the display functions as perhaps the biggest viewfinder you've ever used.

And you'll probably want to use headphones with the Streak, as the quality of its built-in speaker is dismal. And because the speaker is located on the Streak's back, it gets even harder to hear when you set the gadget down. Fresher software will surely improve the Streak, but whether you're looking for a phone, a tablet computer or both, the Streak falls short.

Original Print Headline: Dell Streak is awkward phone, so-so tablet

Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using — the just-released Dell Streak — is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin — a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display. Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones, though.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded kind of fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software — version 1.6 — which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos.

Dell Inc. says the Streak will get the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by the decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available now on a number of smart phones.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease.

Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using — the just-released Dell Streak — is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin — a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display. Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones, though.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded kind of fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software — version 1.6 — which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos.

Dell Inc. says the Streak will get the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by the decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available now on a number of smart phones.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease.

By RACHEL METZ AP Technology Writer NEWLINE Lately I've been feeling very self-conscious when talking on the phone in public, and it's not because I'm worried about strangers listening in on my private conversations. NEWLINE Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using – the just-released Dell Streak – is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison. NEWLINE The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin – a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display. Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear. NEWLINE The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone. NEWLINE It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old. NEWLINE Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones, though. NEWLINE There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting. NEWLINE The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys. NEWLINE Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded kind of fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions. NEWLINE Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software – version 1.6 – which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos. NEWLINE Dell Inc. says the Streak will get what is currently the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available on a number of current smart phones. NEWLINE Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only currently enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease. NEWLINE Fortunately, the Streak comes with fully functional 5-megapixel digital camera on its back. The camera takes sharp images and has a bright flash, and the display functions as perhaps the biggest viewfinder you've ever used. There are plenty of options for adjusting your shots, and I was able to take a bunch of crisp shots. You'll need to hold it steady while snapping, though, because the Streak takes a long time to take a photo after you've pressed its shutter button. NEWLINE And you'll probably want to use headphones with the Streak, as the quality of its built-in speaker is dismal. When watching a Ted Leo And The Pharmacists music video online, the sound was muddled, even at a low volume. Because the speaker is located on the Streak's back, it gets even harder to hear when you set the gadget down. NEWLINE Fresher software will surely improve the Streak, but whether you're looking for a phone, a tablet computer or both, the Streak falls short. Performance-wise, that is; in reality, it's anything but. NEWLINE © 2010 The Associated Press. NEWLINE