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19.Septembra

MaineToday Media prieskum dáva prehľad o postavení kandidátov ', sa týka voličov

Od Matt Wickenheiser mwickenheiser@mainetoday.com
Zamestnanci Spisovateľ

Nových nezávislých anketu na guvernéra Maine závod ukazuje malý pohyb z predchádzajúcich prieskumov, s Republican Paul LePage udržať značný náskok pred jeho najbližší konkurent, demokrat Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell.

Kritické Štatistiky prieskumu má 38 percent respondentov, hlasovať pre LePage, nasledovaný 25 percent pre Mitchell. Unenrolled kandidátov Eliot Cutler , Shawn Moody a Kevin Scott sledovať s 11 percentami, 4 percenta a 1 percento, resp.

Tam je aspoň jeden pozoruhodný rozdiel od minulých ankiet: 21 percent z tých, volal povedali, že nevedia, koho by hlasovali za.

"To naznačuje, značný počet ľudí, ktorí sú tam byť chytil," povedal Michael Franz, profesor vlády na Bowdoin College.

Prieskum tiež top-o-myseľ podrobnosti voličov 'obavy a informácie o tom, prečo oni sú podporu niektorých kandidátov, čo niektorí voliči nahliadnutie do celkovej myslenia.

Prieskum z 603 registrovaných voličov, Maine bol vzatý v pondelok, a spýtal sa, kto by hlasovali za, ak voľby "bol sa bude konať zajtra." Prieskum bol chybou 4 percentá na 95 percent intervalu spoľahlivosti. To znamená, že v prípade, že hlasovanie bolo opakuje 100, v 95 prípadoch sa výsledky budú do 4 percentuálnych bodov z tých hlásených.

Kritické Štatistiky vykonávali prieskum pre MaineToday Media, ktoré vydáva Portland Herald Tlač / Maine nedeľu Telegram, Kennebec vestník a ranná hliadka denné a nedeľné noviny, týždenník pobrežné vestníku v Bathe a ich príslušné webové stránky. Mediálna spoločnosť plánuje sponzorovať ďalšie dve ankety voličov.

Kritické Štatistiky pollster MaryEllen Fitzgerald uviedol, že 21 percent nerozhodnutých voličov bolo najvýraznejšie aspekt ankety, volať to "prenikavou obžalobou tradičných strán."

Je tu vysoká úroveň nespokojnosti voličov práve teraz, s ľuďmi, veľmi nešťastný kvôli nedostatku pracovných miest a celkový stav ekonomiky, povedala.

Podľa prieskumu, 30 percent opýtaných uvedené nedostatok pracovných miest a nezamestnanosti za ich najvyšší záujem, nasleduje "zlé ekonomiky" na 24 percent a dane na 12 percent.

Voliči mali možnosť počuť z gubernatorial kandidátov, ktorí by boli schopní vykonať zmenu, povedala, a jeden z piatich doteraz urobil rozhodnutie.

"Myslím, že to trochu lepšie vrtáky pre nezávislé, aj keď nezávislé nebolo spravodlivé dobre v tejto ankete," povedal Fitzgerald. "Očakávam, že to zmení drasticky počas nasledujúcich niekoľkých týždňov."

University of Maine politológa Marka povedal Brewer 21 percent nerozhodnutých je "pomerne veľké číslo šesť a pol týždňa von."

"Je tu veľký priestor pre veci do pohybu stále tu," povedal Brewer. "Myslím, že 21 percent skutočne hovorí, že."

A tam môže byť ešte viac voličov sa tam rozhliadol, "povedal. Podľa prieskumu, 69 percent priaznivcov LePage sú "rozhodne" hlasovať pre LePage, v porovnaní s 29 percent sa "pravdepodobne".

Pollsters zistil, že 54 percent priaznivcov Mitchell boli definites, a 44 percent boli pravdepodobne podporuje ju.

A 25 percent priaznivcov Cutler boli definitívne, v porovnaní s 74 percent, ktorý by pravdepodobne hlasovať pre neho.

Kým LePage podporovatelia sú "pevný ako skala," povedal Brewer, Mitchell a Cutler pomoci je "nie veľmi solídne." Tí voliči sú mobilné, "povedal.

"Mitchell Podpora nie je tak nadšený ako Paul LePage podporu 's, "súhlasil Franz. "Dobrou správou je pre ňu Eliot Cutler podpora sa zdá mäkšie."

Tieto čísla hovoria o "nadšenie medzeru", ktorá bola poznamenal celoštátnej, povedal, s vysokou spotrebou energie v GOP, a menej nadšenie v demokratickej kruhy.

Tam je brať-aways pre LePage, Mitchell a Cutler vo výsledkoch, povedal Franz.

Prieskum bol vzatý v pondelok, v rovnaký deň, LePage tussled s médiami v daňových otázkach a jeho manželky Maine pobytovým statusom. Takže hlasovanie nemusí nevyhnutne odrážať to najnovšie kontroverzie. Ale, Franz poznamenať, závod bol horúci cez leto, a LePage bola tvrdo zasiahnutá ďalších kandidátov a Demokratickej strany, rovnako.

Dokonca s tým, jeho čísla bola konštantná, povedal Franz.

"Je to nehýbe sa, že to nie je pohybuje dole, ale že základňa pomoci je docela stabilný," povedal Franz. "To môže byť všetko, čo potrebuje vyhrať voľby."

Mitchell by sa mohli zamerať Cutler voliči, povedal Franz, robiť v prípade, že hlasovanie pre unenrolled kandidát by pomohlo republikán.

Ankety by mal povedať, že Cutler "nezávislé" správa nie biť doma s voličmi.

"Naozaj majú menej a menej času s každým uplynulým dňom, aby dieru v mysli ľudí," povedal Franz. "A to len nezdá byť funkčná."

Relatívne priestor medzi kandidátmi nebol moc posun v tejto ankete, v porovnaní s jedným prepustený 8 septembra od verejnej politiky verejnej mienky. Staršie ankety mal Lepage 14 bodov pred Mitchell, a Mitchell 18 bodov pred Cutler.

Kritické Štatistiky prieskumu videl LePage s 13 bodu náskok Mitchell. Mitchell bol 14 bodov pred Cutler.

Čím skôr Prieskum mal remízou bazén 12 percent. LePage viedol pole s 43 percent, nasleduje Mitchell na 29 percent, Cutler na 11 percent, Moody na 5 percent a Scott na 1 percento.

Nasledujúce poznámku od Gary Šiling bol odovzdaný John Mauldin z myšlienky pre Frontline. John obsahuje krátku poznámku na začiatku a na konci. - Ed.

Ja som v lietadle (ešte raz) z Zürichu do Mallorca, kde sa stretnem s mojím európskych a juhoamerických partnerov, pobaviť, oddýchnuť a než sa vydáte do Dánska a do Londýna. S šialený spech dokončiť svoju knihu (o tom viac neskôr) a hektického denného programu tento týždeň, som nemal čas napísať list. Ale žiadne strachy, nechám vás v tých najlepších rukách. Dr Gary Šiling láskavo súhlasil s jeho kondenzácii septembra list, kde on sa pozerá na riziko ďalšej recesie v USA.

Teším sa na začiatku každého mesiaca k získaniu Gary posledný list. Často som ju vytlačiť a odísť od svojho stola stráviť nejaký kvalitný čas čítať jeho myšlienky. On je jeden z mojich "must-čítať" analytici. Vždy sa dozviem niečo veľmi užitočné a bystrý. Som vďačný, že má dovoľte mi podeliť s vami.

Ak máte záujem o jeho list, webové stránky, je jeho nadol byť prepracovaný, ale môžete si napísať pre viac informácií na insight@agaryshilling.com . Pokiaľ chcete objednať (za $ 275), môžete volať 888-346-7444. Povedz im, že ste si o tom prečítať v myšlienkach z Frontline, a budete mať navyše jeden mesiac na predplatné. A teraz, nech sa obrátiť na Garyho.

- John Mauldin

Gary Šiling

Investor pozície obrátili náhle v posledných mesiacoch. Ako neskorý ako vlani v marci, najviac prekladaných rok-dlho robustný rast zásob, cudzie meny, komodity a slabosť v obligácií, že sa začala o rok skôr do robustný ekonomický rast - "V" oživenie.

V dôsledku toho sa investori na začiatku tohto roka veril, že rýchle vytváranie pracovných miest a obnovenie dôvery spotrebiteľov by urýchlil maloobchodných výdavkov. Oni tiež videli oblasti bývania dôkaz stabilizácie, dávať cesta k oživeniu, a silný rast vývozu aj pohonu ekonomiky. Kapitálových výdavkov, viedol o high-tech, bola ďalšia oblasť, sú mnohí verili.

Nie tak rýchlo

Ale funny flash webové stránky, alebo nie tak vtipné flash webové stránky, čo sa stalo na ceste do super-nabitá, kapacita-napínať rastu. V apríli, investori začali uvedomovať, že v eurozóne finančnej krízy, ktorá bola ohlásil na začiatku roka v poklese v eurozóne, bola vážna hrozba pre globálny rast. Zásoby ustúpil (graf 1), komodity klesli a štátne dlhopisy zhromaždil a dolára vzrástli. To je, koniec koncov, len jeden veľký obchod medzi tieto štyri trhy, aby ich akcie na korelovaná nadol, rovnako ako so stranou nie sú prekvapivé.

Navyše, investori začali obávať o zdravie americkej ekonomiky a vyhliadky na druhý pokles v Veľká recesie, ktorá začala v decembri 2007. Gigantický 2009 fiškálny stimul vo výške takmer 1 bilión amerických dolárov bežal von, hrozí recidíva v ekonomike, ktorá bola spustená na podporu vláde život. 8000 dolár daňovú zľavu pre kúpu nového domu bola skončí 30. apríla a môže byť nasledované poklesom predaja domu ako mal jeho predchodca, ktorý vypršal v novembri 2009 ako špička v činnosť začiatkom tohto roka len si požičal od budúceho predaja. Výhľad na vývoz dostali do záporných hodnôt s robustnou babku, ovisnuté európskych ekonomík a aktuálne "stop" fáza "stop-go" Čínska monetárnej a fiškálnej politiky. S nezamestnanosťou zostávajúce vysokej vlani na jar, investori začali osiva, že spotrebiteľské výdavky by váhať, ako fiškálne stimuly bola vyčerpaná.

Oddlžovania

Hoci investor výhľad ekonomiky sa obrátili v posledných piatich mesiacov, v skutočnosti zrejme nemá. Dobrý život a rýchly rast, ktorý začal na začiatku 1980 bol podporený masívnou finančnou pákového efektu a nadmernej zadlženosti, najprv v globálnom finančnom sektore, od roku 1970 a na začiatku 1980 medzi spotrebiteľmi v USA. , Ktoré využívajú pohonom dot com bublina akcií v neskorej 1990 a potom bubliny. Ale teraz tieto dva sektory sú nútené delever a v procese sa prevádzajú svoje dlhy voči vládam a centrálnym bankám.

Tento oddlžovania bude pravdepodobne trvať desať i viac rokov - a to je dobrá správa. Zem pre pokrytie je tak veľký, že ak by bol prekročený v roku či dvoch, by najväčšej ekonomiky skúsenosť depresie horšie ako v roku 1930. Toto znižovanie zadlženosti a ďalších síl bude mať za následok pomalý hospodársky rast a pravdepodobne aj deflácia po mnoho rokov. A ako ukázalo, Japonsko, to sú zložité podmienky na vyrovnanie sa s monetárnej a fiškálnej politiky.

The deleveragings svetovej finančný sektor a americkej spotrebiteľskej arény sú podstatné a trvalé. Zadlženie domácností je dole 374 miliárd dolár od druhého štvrťroka 2008. Kreditné karty a ďalšie komponenty revolvingových rovnako ako non-revolvingových kus, ktorý zahŕňa automatické a študentských pôžičiek sú obaja klesá. Celkom zadlženosti podnikov je dole, o čom svedčí klesajúci obchodnej a priemyselnej úverov.

Medzitým sa federálna dlh explodoval z 5800000000000dolar na 30.září 2008 na 8800000000000dolar na konci augusta. Mnohé obavy o inflačné dôsledky tohto nárastu, ale skutočnosť je taká, že štátny dlh sa proste nahradil súkromný dlh. Federálny deficit má vyskočil ako spotrebitelia a podniky retrenched, ktoré federálnej skrátiť daňové príjmy, pričom fiškálny stimul, zameraný na nahradenie súkromného sektora slabosť, sa rozšírilo.

Štyri valce

Ako je popísané v našom mája 2010 Insight, v typickom pošte-svetová vojna II hospodárske oživenie, štyri valce oheň, aby sa zasadila ekonomickej vozidlo z recesie bahna a späť na diaľnicu hospodárskeho rastu. V súčasnosti je iba jeden - ukončenie likvidácie zásob - generuje značné množstvo energie. Ostatné tri - rast zamestnanosti, rastu spotrebiteľských výdavkov a oživenie bytovej výstavby - sú odprašovanie v najlepšom prípade.

Cyklus zásob

Historicky, likvidácia nadbytočných zásob tvorí hlavný podiel na poklese ekonomickej aktivity v recesii. Okolo vrcholov hospodárskeho cyklu, predaj veľkoobchodníkom výrobcov, obchodníkov a začať oslabovať, ale ich manažéri nemôžu povedať, či to je začiatok veľkých poklesu v podnikaní, alebo len menší pokles v vzostupný trend. Takže s oneskorením zníženie výroby a obstarávania, kým sa klesajúci trend je pevne usadený. Medzitým zásob-predaj pomery skok v čitateli, zásoby, vzostup a menovateľa, predaj, spadnúť. To robí znižovanie výroby a zákaziek nevyhnutne potrebné, a poháňa hospodársky klesajúci trend v tomto procese.

To bol tiež prípad v Veľká recesie. Podľa nášho názoru, je to naozaj začalo na začiatku roka 2007 sa prepad subprime hypoték na bývanie, a potom sa rozšíril na Wall Street, že v lete s implózie z dvoch fondov Bear Stearns zaisťovacích v júni. Ale títo boli finančné prepady, a recesie sú merané výroby, zamestnanosti a výdavky, ktoré sú ovládané tovaru a nefinančných služieb segmentov ekonomiky. Takže recesia nebola oficiálne začať až v decembri 2007.

Spotrebitelia vstúpiť do štrajku

Navyše to nebolo až do konca roka 2008, že zrútenie vlastného domu za ceny nehnuteľností nosedived (graf 2), rastúce prepúšťanie (graf 3) a vysychaniu spotrebiteľských úverov spotrebiteľom išiel do zníženia výdavkov. Ale zrazu šiel na kupca štrajku v posledných štyroch mesiacoch roku 2008, a výsledky boli skoky v inventári-predajnej pomery. V dôsledku toho, na zníženie zásob zbaviť nechcených zásob bola zďaleka najväčšia v pošte-druhá svetová vojna éra.

Zníženie zásob likvidácia bola kľúčom k hospodárskemu rastu začína v druhej polovici roka 2009. V treťom štvrťroku minulého roka, to predstavuje 66% z 1,6% ročnou sadzbou reálny zisk HDP a 58% vo štvrtom štvrťroku o 5,0% zálohy. Tento súpis-stavba v prvom štvrťroku tohto roka bol zodpovedný za 67% z 3,7% ročného tempa rastu reálneho HDP a 36% nárast 1,6% v druhom štvrťroku. Celkom, v posledných štyroch štvrťrokoch, poznámka hojdačka podľa 58% z 3,0% rastu reálneho HDP.

Či už zásoby bude aj naďalej humbuk ekonomika sa ešte len ukáže. V júni, bol súpis-tržbách maloobchodníkov sa vrátil k jeho klesajúci trend, ale stále nad trendom pre veľkoobchodníkov a najmä výrobcovia. Navyše, to je jedna vec na ukončenie likvidácie nežiadúcich zásob, ale ďalšie prestavať je významne. Posledne pravdepodobne vyžaduje predajnú silu pochádzajúce z iných oblastí ekonomiky, a ďalšie tri valce ekonomický motor nie sú podmienkou, že sa zmysluplným spôsobom. Pravý opak. Zdá sa, že v poslednej dobe neuspokojivé maloobchodné tržby majú obchodníci uviazol s nechceným tovarom, ktoré môže byť zrušená, ak spotrebitelia aj naďalej k zoštíhleniu.

Zamestnanosti MAS

V pošte-svetová vojna II recesie pred 1990-1991 poklesu miezd zamestnania je spodná priblížil k nízkemu bodu v celkovej obchodnej pokles a bol nasledovaný rýchlym doskokov (graf 4). V mierne 1990-1991, a dokonca aj plytšie 2001 recesie, však na trhu práce zostala slabá cez rok do hospodárske oživenie. To isté platí tejto doby, za predpokladu, že hospodársky pokles skončil v júli 2009, ako mnohí veria. Čo sa zmenilo?

Nie je to tak plytkú recesiou za následok slabé zotavenie trhu práce, pretože aj keď sa 1990-1991 a 2001 poklesy boli mierne, Veľká recesia rozhodne nebol z hľadiska pracovných miest (graf 4). Viac pravdepodobné vysvetlenie je, že globalizácia, od roku 1980, vynútený americký podnik znížiť všetky náklady energicky, vrátane nákladov na pracovnú silu tým, že outsourcing na tuzemských i zahraničných dodávateľov, podporu produktivity a skrátenie prenájmu. Toto bolo obzvlášť prevláda v poslednom desaťročí.

Pracovných miest stratených Forever

Cez obrovské straty zamestnania od konca roku 2007, mnohé z týchto pracovných miest je nepravdepodobné, že návrat. Z 7,7 milióna čistého Nonfarm pracovných miest zrušených v období od decembra 2007 do júla tohto roka, 86% bolo vo výstavbe, výroba, veľkoobchod a maloobchod, financie a voľný čas a pohostinnosť. Týchto šesť sektory predstavovali 44,5% Nonfarm payrolls v júli, len asi polovicu toho, čo ich straty. Navyše, straty pracovných miest v týchto odvetviach splodil stratám pracovných miest v službách a ďalších sektorov, ktoré sú na nich závislé. Bytovej výstavby, napríklad, ostrohy zamestnanosť vo výrobe spotrebičov, nábytku, bytového textilu a poistenie domu a poskytuje príjmy, ktoré podporujú štátne a miestnej zamestnanosti.

Vzhľadom k obrovskej previs nad domom zásob az toho vyplývajúce ďalší pokles cien, bude to trvať roky, než bytovej výstavby ukazuje nejaké významné oživenie, ako sme sa vysvetľuje v minulých nahliadnutie a bude aktualizovať budúci mesiac. Podobne finančne robiť starosti a masívne voľných komerčných nehnuteľností sa bude brániť výstavbe nových pracovných miest a na mnoho rokov.

Cyklu zásob sa stabilizovať zamestnanosti v spracovateľskom priemysle v posledných mesiacoch, ale že poznámka-súvisiace bounce je u konca a 2000000 pracovných miest vo výrobe stratil od decembra 2007, ak vôbec niečo, sa pravdepodobne stanú ešte väčší číslo. Výroby tovaru aj naďalej pohybovať na mori. job-zníženie zvyšovania produktivity vo výrobe pokračovať, a spotrebiteľských zníženie výdavkov a deflácia bude naďalej obmedzovať spotreba trvanlivého spotrebného tovaru. Veľkoobchod a maloobchod, najmä bude aj naďalej pod tlakom s 25-rok spotrebiteľské pôžičky a výdavky flámu teraz nahradené úspory vyčíňanie (graf 5). Že zníženie výdavkov, rovnako ako pretrvávajúce obmedzenia podnikových výdavkoch bude aj naďalej spomaľovať prácu vo voľnom čase a pohostinnosť.

Finančné činnosti pracovných miest stabilizovaný s marcom 2009-marec 2010 oživenie na Wall Street, ale pravdepodobne pokračovanie novších slabosť v mnohých trhoch cenných papierov povedie k väčšej prepúšťanie a znižovanie bonus. Federálna vláda, samozrejme, pridal ľudí, 262 tisíc od decembra roku 2007, ako to expanduje v reakcii na slabú ekonomiku. Ale štátna vlády znížiť 6.000 na rovnováhu a miestnej obce 128.000, prevažne vo vzdelávaní.

Usilovný Cost-rezanie

Americký obchod bol starostlivo znížiť náklady, pretože recesia začala v decembri 2007, a to najmä náklady na pracovnú silu. Nedávny prieskum ukazuje, že viac ako polovica dospelých boli ovplyvnené nejakú kombináciu prepúšťania, mzdy a dávok strihy, nedobrovoľné dovoleniek a nedobrovoľné presuny na brigády. Mnohé môže nikdy byť obnovené na ich predchádzajúce stavy. Tí prepúšťanie šťastia pri hľadaní nového zamestnania sú často platení menej, než predtým.

Asi 20% z hlavných zamestnávateľov s viac ako 1.000 zamestnancami znížiť alebo úplne eliminovať ich 401 (k) plán príspevky počas hospodárskeho útlmu, ale polovica sa nepodarilo obnoviť je tak ďaleko. Z tých, s 500 a menej zamestnancami, ktoré znižujú príspevky, len 36% sa znovu, alebo plánujú v najbližších 12 mesiacoch, podľa prieskumu Fidelity Investments. Navyše 10% všetkých zamestnávateľov plán na zníženie alebo odstránenie zodpovedajúcej 401 (k) príspevky v budúcom roku.

Spotrebiteľské výdavky

Všetky prepúšťania, nedobrovoľné dovoleniek, a dočasných pracovných miest a prínosov a znižovanie miezd boli nápomocní oživenie ziskov podnikov, ale zničujúce pre odmeňovanie zamestnancov. Táto kúzla slabosť pre spotrebiteľské výdavky. Tiež spotrebitelia sú už menej úspor a pôžičiek viac na kreditné karty, domáce kapitálové a iné pôžičky na preklenutie medzery medzi príjmami a výdavkami požadovaný rast. Okrem toho sa domáce kapitálové odparí (Graf 6) a pevne úverové štandardy na kreditné karty a ďalších úverov prednosť. Takže oni sú na úsporu Spree a znižovanie dlhu flámu, ďalej sekanie výhľad na spotrebiteľské výdavky, tretie valce, ktoré normálne požiare poháňať ekonomické zotavenie z recesie.

V skutočnosti by bez masívne fiškálne stimuly, tlmený odškodnenie a recesia tlačí nadol spotrebiteľské výdavky výrazne. Naše výpočty ukazujú, že spotrebitelia zachránil 80% daňové úľavy, ktoré dostane v lete 2008. A oni pôvodne uložené 100% v roku 2009 je zníženie daní a osobitnej platby $ 250 za každého príjemcu sociálne zabezpečenie. Tieto akcie vyústila v klincami miery úspor je uvedené v grafe 5. To je pozoruhodné, pretože daňové škrty nešiel do highincome ľudí, obyčajne len veľké displeje. Aj tí ľudia sú pomerne početné, takže oni prijali niekoľko ďalších sociálneho zabezpečenia kontroly. V dôsledku toho strednej-a nižšie-domácností vystúpil z charakteru zachrániť ťažko.

Domácnosti sú znižovania zadlženosti svojich súvahách s pomstou. Od konca štvrtého štvrťroka 2007, kedy akcie začali prepadať, osobný majetok sektora klesli 3,0 dolárov bilióna dolárov. Niektoré 1,8 bilióna dolárov bolo do akcií a 277 miliárd dolár v podielových fondoch v dôsledku straty rovnováhy a výbery z vlastného priameho vlastníctva a z podielových fondov. Investori dať peniaze do podielových fondov na bilancie v januári, marci a apríli, ale znížiť ich držanie, a to najmä v akciových fondoch, v máji a júni. Tiež súkromné dôchodkové rezervy klesli 754000000000dolar od konca roka 2007 do konca marca 2010 a vyhradzuje si vláda dôchodok účty domácností klesli 290000000000dolar. Zvyšuje držaných dlhopisov štátnej pokladnice 533 dolár len čiastočne kompenzovať pokles vládna agentúra a cenných papierov, 593 miliárd dolárov. Medzitým sa pasívami sektora poklesli osobné 500 miliárd amerických dolárov, prevažne kvôli poklesu hypotekárnych a spotrebiteľských dlhov, pretože niektoré dlhy boli splatené, zatiaľ čo iní boli odpísané ako beznádejné.

Podpora podľa vlády

Vzhľadom k tomu, recesia začala v decembri roku 2007 do júna 2010, osobné príjmy z miezd a platov, odmeny majiteľov ', prenájmy, úroky, dividendy a prevody, ako sú dôchodkové dávky, sociálne zabezpečenie, Medicare a Medicaid platby a poistenie pre prípad nezamestnanosti zvýšila 285000000000dolar. To by sa znížil 247 miliárd dolárov, bez 532 miliárd dolárov zvýšenie vládnej transferové platby. Toto zvýšenie vládne transfery aj pretekala disponibilného príjmu fyzických osôb (po-daňový výnos), ktorý ďalej ťažil nižší osobné dane, ktoré spadali 382 miliárd dolárov v dôsledku zníženia daní a nižšie zdaniteľné príjmy v dôsledku prepúšťania, znižovanie miezd a bonusov rezy.

Celkom bolo DPI umocňuje 532 miliárd amerických dolárov zo zvýšenia vládne transfery a 382 miliárd dolárov z nižších daní. Bez týchto významných zvyšuje, by DPI klesol 247000000000dolar od decembra 2007 namiesto rastu 667000000000dolar. Bez otázok, a oveľa viac ako v ktoromkoľvek predchádzajúcom pošte-svetová vojna II recesii, má spotrebiteľ bol podporený masívnou vládne peniaze v podobe zvýšenia transferov a daňové škrty. A tieto čísla nezahŕňajú mzdy od pracovných miest vytvorených federálnych výdavkov na infraštruktúru alebo uložiť federálnej transfery na štátnej a miestnej vlády obmedziť prepúšťanie učiteľov a ďalšie zníženie počtu zamestnancov.

Kde sa tie peniaze idú?

Čo sa stalo, že 667 miliárd amerických dolárov zvýšenie DPI a čo to povedzte nám o nebezpečenstvo chronickej spotrebiteľských úspor vyčíňania? Asi 43% z toho sa minulo 64% a uložený, takže možno niektoré z predchádzajúcich znížení daní boli vynaložené, ale s oneskorením. Avšak, 64% limitnej miera úspor nezdá sa, že podporuje naše chronické úspory vyčíňania práce.

Tiež, pokiaľ ide o výdavkoch a úsporách, na vedomie, že čokoľvek sa deje v spotrebiteľských aréne bol podporený masívnou federálnej podnety. Tieto podnety môže pretrvávať v blízkosti súčasných úrovniach v najbližších rokoch z dôvodu chronického vysokej nezamestnanosti, ako je uvedené v predchádzajúcich Obrázok, ale zdá sa nepravdepodobné, že by rast v sadzbách oni robili, pretože recesia začala kvôli ich vplyv na už masívne deficity federálneho rozpočtu. Republikáni, a dokonca aj niektorí demokrati v Kongrese sa tak obávajú, že súčasný deficit hubárčenie podnetov je nepravdepodobné, že by obnovená aspoň do nezamestnanosti skoky ďalej. V takom prípade môže byť výsledný zrušenia podpory pre spotrebiteľa výdavkov tlačiť ich dole. Takže skok spotrebiteľských výdavkov ako podiel z príjmov fyzických osôb (graf 7), ktorý bol poháňaný daňové škrty, ktoré boli len čiastočne kompenzované úspor zvyšuje, je veľmi nepravdepodobné, že pretrvávajú.

Dôkazy o nedávne zníženie výdavkov spotrebiteľov je nekontrolovateľné. Dôvery spotrebiteľov má sploštené, ako sa ľudia obávajú zamestnanie a šance na výnosy, rovnako ako straty zo svojich zásob a domy. Kreditná karta nesplatených úverov klesol o 10% v minulom roku a sľubujeme, že ďalší pokles ako spotrebitelia splatiť dlh, úverové štandardy dotiahnuť a nový federálny zákon znižuje výnosnosť úverov kreditnej karty. Medzitým, banky uvádzajú, že záujem o spotrebiteľské úvery aj naďalej klesať, aj keď klesajúce ceny.

Zvýšená úspora nie je len neboli použité na splatenie dlhu, ale aj k obnove 401 (k) s. Fidelity Investments zistil, že v druhom štvrťroku, 5,3% účastníkov zvýšil svoj podiel, zatiaľ čo 2,9% znížilo. Že prebytok rastie cez zníženie pretrváva po dobu piatich štvrťroku a sleduje tri štvrtiny zvrátiť. Napriek tomu, že čísla, ktoré poklepal ich účty za pôžičky alebo utrpenie stiahnutie tiež vzrástol.

Tlmený výdavky

Na strane výdavkov, predaja automobilov v júli boli na 11,5 milióna ročnej sadzby, a to až od sub-10000000 úrovňou z rokov 2008-2009, ale výrazne nižšia ako pred recesiou úrovniach. Spotrebiteľské výdavky na televízory, počítače, videá a telefónne zariadenia vzrástli o 1,8% v prvom polroku 2010 v porovnaní s predchádzajúcim rokom, zatiaľ čo spotrebič nákupy klesli o 3,6% a nábytku výdavky klesli o 11%. Oblečenie predaja aj prehral s elektronické prístroje. Tento posun odráža dve sily. Po prvé, spotrebitelia sú viac šetriť a menej utrácať na vybavenie ich domov, ktoré sú už oceniť, ale teraz znehodnocovanie aktív. Po druhé, stále chcú spokojnosť nákupu iPads a iných drobných Přepychy, investičné tému sme identifikovali rokmi a vysvetlené plne v našej augusta Insight.

Bývanie zostáva stlačené

Bývanie je dôležitým generátor normálneho hospodárskeho oživenia, aj keď bytovej výstavby tvoria len 4,7% HDP v priemere v rokoch post-druhá svetová vojna. Je to volatility, na čom záleží. Bytovej výstavby bola 6,3% HDP v jej súčasnej maximálnej hodnoty vo štvrtom štvrťroku 2005, ale klesol na 2,4% pri jeho nízkej v prvom štvrťroku 2010. Tento 3,9 percentuálneho bodu pokles je veľmi významný, pretože sa domnieva, že 3% zhora nadol pokles reálneho HDP predstavuje hlavnú recesie.

Štátne a miestne vládne výdavky

Výdavkov štátnej správy a samosprávy nie je jedným zo zdrojov hospodárske oživenie po skončení recesie, pretože to bol taký stabilný 12% až 13% podielu na HDP, od začiatku 1970. V prvých desaťročiach po-druhej svetovej vojny, to stalo sa rýchlo na financovanie vzdelávania detí a povojnového rastu hubárčenie predmestí. Obce majú tiež k dispozícii stabilný zdroj pracovných miest, pretože až do nedávnej doby, mnoho menej zamestnanci boli prepustení, alebo vystrelil, než v súkromnom sektore a relatívne málo prestať. Rokmi, "spoločenskej zmluvy", rozhodol, že tí zamestnanci dostali nižšie mzdy ako pracovníci v súkromnom sektore, tak predčasného odchodu do dôchodku ustanovenia a svieža dôchodky dovolil im dohnať v neskoršom veku. Ale od začiatku roka 1980, má súkromný sektor bol globalizovanom s veľmi malým rastom reálnych príjmov. Medzitým, štátnej a miestnej štátnej zamestnanci majú naďalej prijímať platiť vznáša nad infláciu a teraz majú mzdy, ktoré sú o 34% vyššia ako u zamestnancov súkromného sektora (graf 8).

Federálne Pomocník

Ako súčasť svojho fiškálneho stimulu program, federálna vláda je prevádzajúcej 246 miliárd amerických dolárov, aby vlády jednotlivých štátov, aby sa zabránilo ďalšie prepúšťanie učiteľ školy, pomoc pri financovaní Medicaid zvýšenie nákladov a pripojte ďalšie diery v štátnych rozpočtoch. Federálnych peňazí je náplň 30% až 40% nedostatkov štátneho rozpočtu, ale 46 štátov sa vrhajúce kolektívnej deficit 121000000000dolar pre rok 2011 fiškálny rok, ktorý začína budúci 1. júla, čo zodpovedá 19% svojich rozpočtov. A 39 uvádza, pozri medzery, ktoré celkovo 102 miliárd amerických dolárov pre fiškálny rok 2012. Ak federálnu pomoc aj naďalej, budú tieto deficity byť oveľa väčšie. Všetky štáty, ale Vermont sú povinní na vyrovnanie ich rozpočtov v tej či onej podobe, ale väčšina z nich je neslúži v rozpore tak daňové triky a kreatívne účtovníctvo naozaj kreatívny.

Rozpočet eskamotérstvo nepochybne súvisí s rýchlym rastom štátnych výdavkov v posledných rokoch, a skokom do dlhu. Štátne a miestne vlády teraz používajú dlhu na financovanie investícií, ktoré slúžia k byť vykonané na základe súčasného rozpočtu, a na nejaké problémy, dlhy zakryť bežné rozpočtové deficity. Celkový objem štátnych dlhopisov a miestne nesplateného dlhu, skočil 93% medzi rokmi 2000 a 2009, z 1,2 bilióna dolárov na 2,3 bilióna dolárov.

To samozrejme vyžaduje veľa škrípanie zubov vo vonkajšej temnote pre štátnej a miestnej správy porovnať, nieto znížiť ich výdavky po desiatich rokoch o 6% až 7% ročný rast. Skákanie obecnej zamestnania je hlavným dôvodom pre hubárčenie výdavkov v predchádzajúcich rokoch, a rezanie často odborov štátnej a miestnej pracovnej sily je veľmi ťažké. Vzhľadom k tomu, Veľká recesia začala v decembri 2007 do apríla, súkromné mzdy zamestnanosť klesla o 6,8%. Napriek tomu, štátne a miestne pracovných miest znížil, ale oveľa menej, len 1,4%. V júli, štátne a miestne vlády, ktoré zamestnávajú 9,5 milióna, strih 48.000 pracovných miest, 102.000 v posledných troch mesiacoch a 169,000 zatiaľ v tomto roku.

Zvýšiť dane

V reakcii na ich finančné ťažkosti, majú mnoho štátnych a miestnych vlád pokúšal sa zvýšiť dane a poplatky. The usual suspects include higher sin taxes on tobacco and alcoholic beverages as well as taxes on companies based out of state but doing some business in the state. Attempts to raise taxes and cut spending have proved wholly inadequate to solving state and local government funding problems. And those woes appear chronic, especially if our forecast of slow economic growth and even deflation is valid. Rises in taxable personal and corporate incomes will be muted. Retail sales and taxes on them will be sluggish as consumers persist for the next decade in their saving spree, replacing the borrowing and spending binge of the last decade.

House prices are likely to fall further in the next year or so, under the weight of gigantic excess inventories. Even when those inventories are worked off, house prices will probably rise little, if at all, in a low inflation or deflationary climate. Historically, they've been flat after correcting for overall inflation and the growing size of houses over time. And now that house prices have fallen nationwide for the first time since the 1930s, home buyers no longer see their abodes as also great, leveraged investments, and want smaller, cheaper houses. That will also reduce assessments on property taxes.

Meanwhile, commercial real estate high vacancies and severe financial problems will take years to resolve, keeping prices depressed for some time (Chart 9 ). So, all things considered, local government property taxes are likely to be curtailed for many years. Meanwhile, municipal expenses will be hard to cut. Chronic high unemployment will spawn high Medicaid enrollment and costs. Welfare and unemployment benefit costs will no doubt rise as well.

Deteriorating finances are raising the risks of defaults on state and local obligations and even municipal bankruptcies. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania's capital, will not make a $3.3 million municipal bond payment on $51.5 million debt that's due in two weeks, and earlier this year, city officials discussed bankruptcy. Harrisburg also lacks the funds to continue payments for the $288 million debt on an incinerator project. Earlier, Jefferson County, Ala., home of Birmingham, defaulted on $227 million due on its disastrous sewer upgrades.

Taxpayer Revolt?

People working in the private sector apparently were willing to accept the higher pay, more job security and better retirement benefits for state and local employees in past years. High employment in the private sector and robust economic growth at least held out the hope that their lots would improve tomorrow. But with slow economic growth, limited income expansion and high unemployment now expected by them for years, voter attitudes appear to be changing.

Americans still want basic municipal services like police and fire protection, good schools for their kids, clean streets and garbage collection. But they apparently are deciding they're paying too much for those services; that 34% higher wages for state and local employees compared to private sector workers isn't justified as pay cuts multiply in the private sector and those laid off earn much less if and when they can find another job; that 66% higher benefit costs is over the top, especially as private sector employees are paying more of their health care premiums and seeing their defined benefit pension plans replaced by much more uncertain 401(k)s.

As taxpayers revolt, there are plenty of things that can be done to reduce state and local government costs in an orderly way. Following in the footsteps of bankrupt GM, two-tier wage structures are being established with existing employees continuing at current salary levels, but new hires paid the much lower wages adequate to attract qualified people. And the new people are enrolled in defined contribution pension plans that require employee contributions, not defined benefit plans, while their retirement ages are increased.

Foreign Trade

Another economic sector that normally isn'ta significant engine of economic recovery but is important at present is exports since the Administration hopes they will double in the next five years and provide meaningful economic growth. The President's zeal to achieve that goal rises as he realizes that massive fiscal stimuli have not revived the economy, and already-huge federal deficits impede further rounds of big spending.

But two significant problems are likely to retard export growth in future years – rising protectionism that clearly impedes foreign trade, and finding foreign countries that will buy this doubling of American exports. It's like the story of the stockbroker who calls his client during May's Flash Crash to tell him that stocks are collapsing. “Sell my entire portfolio!” yells the distressed client. “Sure,” retorts the broker, “but to whom? There are no buyers.”

Foreign Buyers?

As far as foreign buyers of US exports is concerned, the reality is that many of those markets that are showing robust growth and therefore might be able to absorb American products, lands like China and Germany, are major exporters themselves, not importers on balance. Indeed, it's no surprise that the EU's measures of both industry and household confidence shows that export-led Germany has the highest level while the economically weak Club Med net importers are at the bottom of the pile (Chart 10).

Currency changes have only limited effects on export or import prices. The volatility of US import prices is only about one-fourth that of the dollar and a third in the case of American export prices. Prečo? Many products are sold under long-term contracts and immune from most currency fluctuations. Also, importers and exporters resist reflecting the full extent of exchange rate changes in their prices. If the yen is strong against the dollar, importers of Lexus cars shave their profit margins to offset some of the higher prices in dollars to avoid losing market share. Conversely, US exporters to Japan don't pass on in lower yen prices the full extent of the dollar's decline in order to increase their profits.

The “processing trade” in which components are imported, assembled and then re-exported makes up about half of Chinese exports. This reduces the importance of the yuan's exchange rates. Furthermore, even goods with more domestic content aren't completely sensitive to exchange rates in a global world. About 50% of a Chinese manufacturer of children's clothes costs are fabric and around 50% of the fabric's costs are cotton, a globally-traded commodity priced in dollars. So, 25% of the total cost is not affected by yuan fluctuations. Also, another 25% might be in the combined profits of the clothing and the fabric producers, and could be adjusted to offset currency fluctuations – or production moved to lower-cost Vietnam or Bangladesh if the yuan leaped in value.

Double Dip Recession?

We've made our case for very slow US economic growth in the quarters, indeed the years, ahead. The economic rebound due to the inventory cycle is over. Employment and consumer spending remain weak. Housing is too overburdened with excess inventory and the resulting price weakness to revive any time soon. State and local government spending and employment are retreating. And meaningful export gains are unlikely as economic growth abroad slips. Interestingly, the consensus forecast is moving toward our position as growth estimates have been reduced rapidly in recent months. In both April and June, the Wall Street Journal's poll of economists (not including us) expected 3% economic growth in the second half of this year. We wonder if they still do.

Will slow growth deteriorate into another recession, the so-called double dip scenario? Before exploring that question, let's define a double dip. It seems to mean a second period of economic decline following the 2007-2009 nosedive. That could imply that the recession that the accepted authority, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research, pinpointed as commencing in December 2007, is still underway. Sure, real GDP grew in the last four quarters, but it's common to have quarters of gain within recessions. In the 11 post-World War II recessions so far, seven, including the 2007- 2009 decline, had at least one quarter of rising real GDP within the recession. In fact, two – the 1960-1961 and the 2001 declines – didn't even have two quarters of consecutive decline. Even in the 1929-1933 economic collapse, GDP rose in six quarters.

Still, to have a four-quarter interlude between the declining phases of the same recession would be unprecedentedly long, assuming that real GDP declines in the current quarter. So another period of economic weakness could be classified as a second recession, much as the 1981-1982 decline, which started in July 1981, only 12 months after the 1980 recession ended.

Slow Growth to Recession

We're on record for a 50% or higher probability of a second dip or another recession, whatever it would be called. The composition of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index remains proprietary, but its growth rate has fallen to the level that in the past was always associated with recessions (Chart 11). Historically, however, recessions have been propelled by shocks. The post- World War II downturns prior to 2001 were caused by Fed tightening in response to threats of economic overheating and the resulting higher inflation. Since then, other shocks have been responsible. The 2001 recession resulted from the 2000 collapse of the dot com bubble augmented by the 9/11 shock. The 2007-2009 downturn resulted from the collapse in subprime residential mortgages that commenced early in 2007.

V súčasnej hospodárskej a finančnej situácie, je to veľmi nepravdepodobné, že Fed bude sprísniť úverové rokov. V skutočnosti, má centrálna banka preradila z plánovania vlani na jar, aby stiahla likviditu, pretože ekonomika rástla obnoviť kvantitatívne uvoľňovanie a obáv z deflácie a subpar rast. To povedal po augustovom 10 strategických stretnutí, ktoré výdavky domácností je spomalené tým, vysoká nezamestnanosť, pomalý rast príjmov, nižšie vlastného domu a tesné úverové podmienky bankových úverov a zároveň "má aj naďalej zmluvu."

Tlačenie na provázku

Konvenčné monetárnej ľahké je teraz bezmocný s sadzbu federálnych fondov blíži nule, peňažný multiplikátor sa zrútil a banky sedia na hromady peňazí (graf 12) a viac než 1 bilión dolárov nadmerných rezerv. Iste, veľké banky Fed správu, že sú uvoľneniu úverových štandardov pre malé firmy, ale po vedľajšej finančnej krízy, mnoho menej potenciálnych dlžníkov považuje za bonitné než vo voľnej vypožičiavanie dní. Navyše malé firmy obchodná skupina, Národná federácia nezávislého podnikania, uvádza, že 91% vlastníkov malých podnikov mali svoje úverové potreby boli uspokojené alebo podnikania je tak pomalé, že nechcú požičať. Fed sa tlačí na príslovečný reťazec.

The Fed also worries about deflation, which means that even zero interest rates are positive in real terms, as has been the case for years in deflationary Japan. Also, deflation encourages buyers to wait for still-lower prices in a self-feeding cycle, as is seen in Japan and as we have discussed often in conjunction with our forecast of 2% to 3% per year chronic deflation. In it s post- August 10 meeting statement, the Fed said that “measures of underlying inflation,” already low, “have trended lower” lately and are “likely to be subdued for some time.” James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, recently warned of the risks of deflation.

Deflation is a scary phenomenon, but we can't resist noting that the Fed as well as many other forecasters are moving in the direction of our forecast. In contrast, an April 6 Wall Street Journal piece by Peter Eavis stated unequivocally, “No one in their right mind would bet on inflation remaining substantially below 4% for the next 10 years.” Maybe we better have our head examined.

A Baby Step

So, with conventional monetary ease exhausted and further fiscal stimulus on hold because of the already-huge federal deficit, the Fed at its August 10 meeting took a baby step toward more quantitative ease by deciding to buy Treasury bonds to replace the maturing and refinanced Treasury and mortgage-backed securities in the $1.7 trillion hoard it finished buying earlier this year. With low mortgage rates, refinancings were projected to raise the Fed's portfolio contraction from an earlier estimate of $200 billion by the end of 2011 to $340 billion, with another $55 billion coming from retirement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt held by the Fed.

Furthermore, the Fed is open to further steps if the economy continues to slip. It could buy even more Treasurys or mortgage debt. But would the resulting lower interest rates encourage prospective home buyers who now know that house prices can and do fall? Would another $1 trillion in excess reserves induce more bank lending than the first $1 trillion? The Fed could also promise to keep short-term interest rates low, but it's already said it would for an “extended period.”

It could cut out the 0.25% it pays the banks on their reserves, but would that induce reluctant banks to lend? Finally, the Fed could set an inflation target over its formal 1.5% to 2.0% range. That would be anathema for inflation-wary central bankers, and how could the Fed hit that target in a deflationary world where ample supply exceeds weak demand? Despite all the credit easing actions that Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his famous November 2002 speech, said the Fed could take if the federal funds target reached zero, the credit authorities are about out of ammo – except for dumping money out of helicopters. Remember the “Helicopter Ben” moniker?

Other Shocks

If the Fed is highly unlikely to shock slow growth into recession, what could? This brings us back to the series of seemingly isolated events that are occurring on the deleveraging road, such as further financial woes in Europe, a crisis in commercial real estate, a nosedive in the Chinese economy and a slow motion train wreck in Japan. They are all possibilities – as are other shocks here or abroad that we don't foresee. Maybe the exhausting of federal stimulus will be enough to trigger an economic downturn. Keep your eyes pealed, however, because it won't take much disruption to push the fragile global economy back into decline.

Gary Shilling

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John Mauldin…

Houston, My Book, and New York

Tuesday was a very special day. My co-author, Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception (based in London), and I spent the entire day reading the first complete rough draft of our forthcoming book, The End Game. We went cover to cover, making comments and notes. Of course, I had read the bits and pieces, but not in one sitting. I have to say that I am more than happy. It is a very good first draft, much better than I thought it would be. There is a lot of work ahead, of course, to try and make it a great book, but I can “feel” it. And I think we have managed to capture some very difficult topics and make them simple and maybe even a fun read. We are on target for a January 1 launch.

We make what I feel is an overwhelming case for a period of slow growth in the developed world, with more volatility as the base case. The research we review is very strong. But there are pockets of potential if you step back and take off your localized blinders.

I will be in Houston (along with Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Bill King, and Jon Sundt) at the one-day X-Factor Conference on October 1. Quite the lineup. You can learn more by going to www.streettalklive.com . Then I will be in New York in late October, speaking at the BCA conference and a few media events.

It has been interesting talking with investment types in Europe. They are very curious about the US and what they perceive as our lack of seriousness about the deficit. It appears that Greece has focused their attention. And of course, I get off the plane from Malta yesterday and the headline in the Financial Times says, “Greece rules out possibility of default.” I know that made me feel better. And gave us all a laugh. If you have not, read the piece from Michael Lewis in Vanity Fair on Greece. And then share my amusement about the chances of no default.

It is time to hit the send button. I feel a nap coming on. Jet lag has been worse than normal this trip. And maybe another glass of Prosecco to ease me into slumberland.

Your excited about almost finishing this book analyst,

John Mauldin
John@FrontLineThoughts.com

Copyright 2010 John Mauldin. Všetky práva vyhradené

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We visited the Ojai, California high school set of the sassy new comedy Easy A last year and saw pretty actress Emma Stone doing a come hither song and dance in a high school gym wearing a hot, lacy bustier and some sexy black stockings. Now… after finally seeing the film, we get it!

Emma plays Olive, a good student/good girl who agrees to help out a male pal by pretending to hook up with him to build his rep with his buds. It works great but the word spreads that Olive is easy and more. How does she beat the rep and get the guy of her dreams? Check out the film opening Sept. 17th.

We're at the 4 Seasons Hotel in Beverly Hills for a sitdown with witty, funny flash websites fellow red-head Emma who is always friendly and ready to spill all! With her hair up and wearing a dark, flower-patterned dress by McQ and 6 inch (at least) beige platform stiletto s by Valentino, the star looks very Hollywood glam. We like her mauve nail polish and big, gold, filigree disc earrings.

As Emma comes in for our chat about her role and the classic '80′s films she loves, we notice that the petite girl is suddenly at least as tall as we are (5'7″). It's those shoes! She puts down her coffee and models them for us.

Emma: Tallest shoes I've ever worn in my life! Wanna know how tall I really am? This is messed up. Check this out [she takes off the shoes and sinks about a foot. We laugh].

TeenHollywood: Okay so super high heels are in with you. After doing the movie, are you a big fan of bustiers now?

Emma: [laughs] Oh yeah. I'ma real 'supporter' of bustiers. I'ma real supporter of that which supports me. Those were from my own personal collection.

TeenHollywood: You seem to be such a thorough preparer for your work. So, did you read Nathaniel Hawthorne's “The Scarlet Letter”?

Emma: No. It's embarrassing to say but I can not tell a lie. I did not. Here's how I'll justify it. Once I got the part, it was go time. We were starting about two weeks after I wrapped Zombieland so, to me, it was so important to have the script completely memorized before we started like you would a play or something so I was so obsessed with reading the script over and over and getting those words down that there were no other books I was reading at the time.

TeenHollywood: It's cool how the book ties in with the movie. Did books effect you a lot as a teen?

Emma: I feel like, when you're a teenager or when you're young, do you remember when you read books or watched movies or listened to music and you made it apply to your life no matter what it was? You're like 'Oh, this book really gets me.' Or 'The Beatles really understand me, specifically' [we laugh]. You made it your own.

TeenHollywood: When you were a teen, were you in the “Let's not and say we did” group of girls?

Emma: Well, I didn't have that traditional high school experience and I was kind of on my own. I was in LA and most of my friends from theater were a bit older than me and in college or whatever. When I was 16 I was friends with some of the people I'm friends with now, and it was a different thing. I talked to my mom more about stuff like that than I did my friends because I wasn't really hanging out with girls my age. So, that [doing it or not] was really more a conversation between my mom and I so you can probably tell where I fell in what category [laughter].

TeenHollywood: Did you do anything when you were a teen to get attention because Olive likes the attention she is getting for a while?

Emma: Only theater and what I do now [laughs]. I was such a ham.. such a ham [she rolls her eyes]. I was awful! Oh my God, always loud. I was _that _kid.

TeenHollywood: With friends or out in public? Would you be at the mall and suddenly just break into song?

Emma: Oh no, no, definitely not that. That would be embarrassing but it was with friends. I was pretty hammy. But, this hopefully, has curbed. When I was a kid I was also bossy and that's a bad combination; a hammy, bossy kid. So, my mom tried to get that out of me pretty quickly.

TeenHollywood: Are you the oldest child?

Emma: Yeah and my brother is just so sweet. He's great and quiet and I've always wanted to be more like him; only speak when you have something really important to say. I'm just like 'wa, wa, wa, wa, wa' and none of it matters.

TeenHollywood: We've talked before and I think you were home schooled. Did you ever have the chance to be the “cool girl”, the “drama girl” or anything?

Emma: Áno, bol som doma vzdelaný, takže všetky vyššie uvedené. I didn't really have a traditional high school experience. I did go to a high school for a semester of my Freshman year but it wasn't really long enough to be able to gage all that.

TeenHollywood: So then was it difficult to get into this character not having a high school experience?

Emma: Not really because I didn't feel it was a high school movie parse. We're not really dealing with any of the traditional things; graduation or prom or any of the rights of passage of high school. It was more a story about reputation and technology [fast rumor spreading] and judgment and it just happened to be through the eyes of a 17-year-old girl but you don't really see us doing too much 'school-ish' stuff even though we're in the hallways a lot.

TeenHollywood: That's true. But, as a young actor, you go through a similar thing; you're always being scrutinized by the media and your reputation is kind of out there for better or worse. Can you relate to it on that level?

Emma: Probably. There's definitely an element of that. I wouldn't say as much personally because my life is a pretty standard, livable life. There's a lot of other actresses my age that wouldn't be able to say that so I'm lucky but, seeing that and watching that happen, there's probably definitely an element of that.

TeenHollywood: This is really your film. Did you feel extra pressure or go about it like any acting role?

Emma: For me it was less about the size of the role and trying to bring Olive to life in the most accurate way I could to the script. That pressure was what I was thinking about. It wasn't how many lines there were or how many scenes I was in, it was more playing her accurately and making sure that she stayed how she was on the page because she was so fleshed out and fantastic in writing. I don't know if I did her justice but I tried. [we tell her she did].

TeenHollywood: Was the family dog in the film as lovable as he looked?

Emma: Yes. It had halitosis, so incredibly lovable….but smelly!

TeenHollywood: We understand that you went home after your audition for the part and made a webcam video? Was that just on your own?

Emma: No. [Director] Will [Gluck] asked me to do that.

TeenHollywood: It worked great. You're a computer person, right?

Emma: Bigtime, yeah. But I was horrified when he asked me, 'Can you go home after you've been working on this audition and memorizing these things, can you go home and send me a webcam of you?' I was like 'Oh God'. Because it's one thing in the audition room when you're like 'Oh, I wish I hadn't done that but they're making me leave'.

When you go home and you have to record yourself and have so many opportunities to watch it again and beat yourself up and delete it and do it again and again and again before you finally send it in, it feel like you put a stamp on it, 'This is what I think is the best thing I could do'. It was the first monologue of the movie. It was like a minute long.

TeenHollywood: Are you on Facebook and do you tweet?

Emma: No. I love it. I completely understand it. I was into websites when I was a kid, making them and I thought that was what I wanted to do but that was 1999 and 2000 and there weren't blogs yet. It was the age of e-zines; you would sign up and get them in your e-mail. It was just when Flash had come around and I was dabbling in Flash but it's such a complicated program so I kind of faded out.

TeenHollywood: So, you love computers and the internet but no Facebook or tweeting? I'm confused.

Emma: Social networking and blogs are so fascinating to me but I have an addictive personality and the second I get involved in something like that it will consume me. I didn't want to be consumed by Twitter. I didn't want to be a slave to Twitter so I've had to limit myself and have a little phone detox time and take a little hit of IM once in a while.

TeenHollywood: Makes total sense! Your co-star Penn said he hadn't seen most of the John Hughes '80′s movies this film references. Had you?

Emma: [She nods big "yes"]. Are you serious? He hadn't seen them? I didn't know that. Had he seen Say Anything ? [NOTE: This was actually a Cameron Crowe movie,.. written and directed by.. not John Hughes]

TeenHollywood: He said no but he knows the [famous] photo [of John Cusack holding up the boom box].

Emma: He'd seen it on a t-shirt? Oh my Lord, that's all I watched when I was a kid. My dad, when it comes to comedy, that was his favorite. The first movie I ever remember watching was The Jerk then Planes, Trains and Automobiles, Animal House, Ferris Bueller's Day Off and The Breakfast Club. Planes, Trains and Automobiles is a John Hughes movie, don't forget. The brilliance of John Hughes was so exciting.

I know Will feels the same way because he's his favorite director. It was so exciting to get to pay tribute and homage to John Hughes because he told his stories in the most empathetic way. That's why they still resonate [when you're] an adult. They might be set in high school but that's a universal truth. He was just absolutely phenomenal.

TeenHollywood: In Easy A , you had the musical number for no reason what-so-ever, like in “Ferris Bueller”. How hard was that to shoot for you?

Emma: It was a little interesting being dressed like that and singing and dancing in front of your peers but I must admit it was actually pretty fun because I grew up doing musical theater so, even though I'm not really a big singer or dancer anymore, it was fun to get to do that. My “hammy' side is coming back in. [She wiggles her shoulders in "sexy" mode] 'Oh yeah! I got a boa. I get to do this'. Oh Lord.

TeenHollywood: What interested you about the character of Olive?

Emma: Everything. I thought she was just layered and realistic and funny flash websites, clever and confused and, the story that she goes through was very interesting to me thematically and her relationship with her parents and her friends and how she takes the matter into her own hands [was great].

Usually a false rumor gets started about you and all you want to do is deny it and she decides to take it to the next level and see what it's like to go for it full-throttle because she knows the truth. And, I like that she was bold enough to know that if it's not hurting anybody, then why does it matter? When it starts to hurt people, that's when things start to spiral out of control but, when it's only her dealing with it, she just has fun with it and is a confident girl that knows herself well enough to know the truth and be comfortable with that.

TeenHollywood: How many takes for the bedroom scene to end all bedroom scenes? [She and her guy friend are jumping around on a bed pretending to be getting it on].

Emma: Oh my God. Too many. There were so many angles in that scene. It went on and on but it was one of my favorite scenes when I read the script. I thought it was so funny flash websites. You've got to be a pretty bold girl and guy to go to a party with all those people dressed like that acting like that. She doesn't even drink and she's so “drunk”.

TeenHollywood: Were you really out of breath doing that scene and needed oxygen. It was in the press kit…

Emma: I love that it was in the press kit. Will Gluck is an ass! Yes, I had an asthma attack without having asthma. I've been making an Olive pun about it, saying I have adult “on set” asthma [groans]. I've only had one asthma attack in my life and it was that day. They just showed me the behind-the-scenes thing from the DVD where Will is talking about my asthma attack and he goes 'I don't even think Em's ever even seen the inside of a gym so..' He's such an ass. Of course he's gonna tell that story [she laughs].

TeenHollywood: What's coming up for you?

Emma: There's a movie coming out in April called Crazy Stupid Love and I'm shooting a movie called The Help based on the book, in Mississippi. We're shooting right now. It's incredible. You've got to read the book. It's just fantastic.

TeenHollywood: So you did read that one.

Emma: Yes. I was talking to Viola Davis who plays one of the lead characters. She's so unbelievable saying the other day. 'when we're on the press tour for The Help I think we should say, 'and then halfway through shooting, someone said there's a book and we thought we should read that'. So, if we see you next year we won't be able to pull that fast one on you. But I might try to pull it a couple of times.

TeenHollywood: Do you have scenes with Bryce Dallas [Howard]?

Emma: Oh yeah. She's got flippy bright red hair in the movie but I wear a blonde wig. We're in these crinolines and we all have our Maidenform bras and girdles. it's fantastic. [Southern accent] We're all talkin' like that.

By Niall Kitson

The other day I came across a t-shirt in a shop on Grafton Street that gave me a chuckle. In nice bright writing across the chest it read “Don't Google it, just ask me”.

It's funny flash websites but it also sums up the current state of the internet, specifically the ways we find information and how reliable we consider it. Academics would call what's going on a 'paradigm shift' – a fundamental change in the way we understand something.

Reklama

But, unlike the fields of science and literature the term was initially applied to, the web is an exponentially expanding phenomenon, equal parts process and discourse. It's the merging of these two occasionally opposed elements that consist of a new understanding of how to navigate the web for content that's relevant to the user but also immersive, engaging and trustworthy.

The main players in the game are also somewhat unlikely bedfellows: Google and its scientific, orderly methodology, and social networks with their subjective noise and narrow personal networks (note: the average number of friends per user on Facebook is 130).

From these apparently opposed perspectives we are expected to make sense of the world? Well…yes. But it's not as awful as it sounds.

To go back to my t-shirt at the start of this piece let's take the first half of the print: “Don't Google it”. Why wouldn't you Google something? Well aside from appearing completely uninterested in engaging another human being in conversation, using a search engine to find information comes with certain risks.

Google's mission statement is all about the organisation of all the information in the world across all media – print, audio, video and whatever comes over the horizon. Since its founding Google has been about process; the sorting and organisation of other people's content based on an algorithm that looks for value not solely on the proliferation of keywords in body text (although that does help) but the links between websites.

If this piece were to appear on a random blog in the ether you probably would not be able to find it. Put it in a highly organised and optimised environment as this website and you can find it in a flash. That's the way Google works at its most efficient – letting the hive mind of the internet (ie the users) decide what's interesting (if not accurate) and giving it prominence by a democratic process of linking.

The problem with this model, which has served the web for so long, is that raw information is not what the web thrives on anymore, it's discourse.

Shaping the conversation

This brings us to the second half of the print: “Just ask me”. When in doubt who better to ask that a trusted source like a friend or newspaper of record? If you have a problem why would you shout your question into a crowded room of faceless strangers when you could ask your friend – who you know is an expert – or read a newspaper whose level of reporting you rate.

If you would rather do that then welcome to the world of social media – where networks are small, exposure to information managed and the people you share it with less likely to be arbitrarily abusive.

Anyone who uses social networks like Twitter and Facebook knows that, as valuable as they are for keeping up with friends and fostering connections, they make excellent walled gardens for spreading news, asking advice and seeking recommendations for just about anything.

In fact it could be argued that the top thing people do online now is not search but engage in dialogue. The challenge for 'old fashioned' search engines like Google and Bing is how to integrate the wisdom of crowds in finding sources of information (process) with conversation from multiple social sources as quickly as questions can be asked or stories broken (conversation).

The development of such a 'real-time web' of instant reportage and analysis is a complex problem but it seems Google has an answer.

Launched this week, Google Instant has been touted as one way to speed up searches based on combinations of letters as they are input into the search bar. Consider it something like what happens when you type in an address and it completes itself based on your browsing history.

It's a simple move designed to cut down on search times. Another component to Google's real-time search formula is 'Trends'. Already familiar to Twitter users (who tag contributions to specific topics with a '#' symbol so developments can be easily followed) the idea here is that information from social networks can be integrated into regular search to give a sense not only of the raw material but its interpretation in real time.

For example if a political or financial story breaks and is reported on this site you can gauge the progress of the conversation around it and its popularity. Consider it the equivalent of posting a link to a story on your Facebook wall and having your friends comment on it…only on a global scale. Tweets, status updates, discussion forums, anything with open access can be aggregated and delivered as part of a concise package of results that changes as soon as new content is published making for a constantly evolving resource.

Such is the new model of search that analysis and bare fact will be treated as complementing instead of competing sources of information. “Don't Google, just ask me” won't be about choosing between processes, just scale.

Niall Kitson is editor of PC Live! and co-host of TechLife

For more on technology, listen to the podcast at www.pcliveradio.ie

Lately, I've been feeling very self-conscious when talking on the phone in public, and it's not because I'm worried about strangers listening in on my private conversations.

Rather, it's because the cellphone I'm using — the recently released Dell Streak — is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin — a fraction the size of Apple's popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display.

Yet Dell insists it is also a phone and, as such, it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google's Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's big size is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth to me. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smartphone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smartphones, though.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software — version 1.6 — which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos.

Dell says the Streak will get what is currently the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by the decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available on a number of current smartphones.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease.

Fortunately, the Streak comes with a fully functional 5-megapixel digital camera on its back. The camera takes sharp images and has a bright flash, and the display functions as perhaps the biggest viewfinder you've ever used. There are plenty of options for adjusting your shots, and I was able to take a bunch of crisp shots. You'll need to hold it steady while snapping, though, because the Streak takes a long time to take a photo after you've pressed its shutter button.

And you'll probably want to use headphones with the Streak, as the quality of its built-in speaker is dismal. When watching a Ted Leo And The Pharmacists music video online, the sound was muddled, even at a low volume. Because the speaker is located on the Streak's back, it gets even harder to hear when you set the gadget down.

Fresher software will surely improve the Streak, but whether you're looking for a phone, a tablet computer or both, the Streak falls short. Performance-wise, that is; in reality, it's anything but.

Motorola has published another full-page ad for one of its Android devices, and takes a poke at the iPhone's inability to access Flash.

By <!– –>
Eric Zeman

InformationWeek
September 3, 2010 02:21 PM

By RACHEL METZ Associated Press
Published: 8/31/2010  2:20 AM
Last Modified: 8/31/2010  7:49 AM

Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using – the just-released Dell Streak – is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak – $300 with a two-year AT&T contract – is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it's fairly small and thin – a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display.

Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, they streamed well

from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen, but they didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software – version 1.6 – which means it's missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching videos.

Dell Inc. says the Streak will get what is currently the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only currently enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update.

Fortunately, the Streak comes with a fully functional 5-megapixel digital camera on its back. The camera takes sharp images and has a bright flash, and the display functions as perhaps the biggest viewfinder you've ever used.

And you'll probably want to use headphones with the Streak, as the quality of its built-in speaker is dismal. And because the speaker is located on the Streak's back, it gets even harder to hear when you set the gadget down. Fresher software will surely improve the Streak, but whether you're looking for a phone, a tablet computer or both, the Streak falls short.

Original Print Headline: Dell Streak is awkward phone, so-so tablet

SAN FRANCISCO — Lately I've been feeling very self-conscious when talking on the phone in public, and it's not because I'm worried about strangers listening in on my private conversations.

Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using — the just-released Dell Streak — is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin — a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display. Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones, though.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded kind of fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software — version 1.6 — which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos.

Dell Inc. says the Streak will get the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by the decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available now on a number of smart phones.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease.

SAN FRANCISCO — Lately I've been feeling very self-conscious when talking on the phone in public, and it's not because I'm worried about strangers listening in on my private conversations.

Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using — the just-released Dell Streak — is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin — a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display. Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones, though.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded kind of fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software — version 1.6 — which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos.

Dell Inc. says the Streak will get the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by the decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available now on a number of smart phones.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease.