有趣的失眠症博客

它每年都会发生，但它仍然像一个惊喜的感觉。

一些超级杯争夺本赛季开始0-2，感觉就像天塌下来。这是一件好事，那么，北欧海盗起到一个圆顶。

这里的明尼苏达州后的营业额填充14-10输给迈阿密布拉德尔德里斯和布雷特法夫尔。

9月19日

MaineToday媒体调查给出了候选人的常设快照，关注选民

由马特Wickenheiser mwickenheiser@mainetoday.com
撰稿人

一个新的种族的独立调查显示在缅因州州长很少运动从以往的调查，与共和党保罗莱佩奇保持可观的前面，他的竞争对手，民主党人伊丽莎白“利比”米切尔。

批判的见解民调百分之38的受访者对莱佩奇投票，百分之25的米切尔之后。 Unenrolled候选人艾略特卡特勒 ， 肖恩穆迪和凯文斯科特跟进11个百分点，4个百分点和1个百分点，分别为。

至少有一个从过去的民意调查显着的区别：所谓有百分之21表示，他们不知道他们会投票给谁。

“这显示了他对那里的人谁是要抓住好了一些，”迈克尔说弗兰兹，是政府在鲍登学院教授。

这项调查还详细选民的顶级心灵的关注和支持他们为什么某些候选人，一部分进入了选民的整体思维洞察力的信息。

缅因州的选民登记的603调查是星期一，问他们是谁，如果将投票选举“分别被关押的明天。”投票有信心在95百分之间隔4个百分点的误差。 这意味着，如果调查95例，重复100次，其结果将在4个百分点的报道。

关键的启示进行了MaineToday媒体，出版社，出版波特兰先驱报的民调/缅因州星期日电报，肯内贝克哨兵日报和每日上午和周日的报纸，周刊杂志在巴斯和沿海各自的网站。 媒体公司计划赞助一两个额外的选民投票。

敏锐洞察力的民意测验专家马里尔伦杰拉德说，百分之21的选民尚未决定是在投票最引人注目的方面，称它是“传统政党刺痛了起诉书。”

有一个高层次的选民的不满与人们现在非常关注就业机会的缺乏和整体经济状况的不满，她说。

根据调查，百分之30的受访者列出了/作为他们最关注的“坏经济”在24和税收其次为百分之百分之十二，失业就业不足。

选民们有机会听到州长候选人会是谁在有能力实施变革，她说，五个人中会有尚未作出决定。

“我觉得它像是推进器更好的独立，即使没有独立公正以及在本次调查中，”杰拉德说。 “我希望这将改变在未来几周内急剧下降。”

缅因大学的政治科学家马克布鲁尔说，百分之二十未定是一个“相对大数目六个半星期了。”

“有一个房间的东西搬到这里仍然很多，”布鲁尔说。 “我认为，百分之二十真的讲了这一点。”

而且有可能在那里东张西望，甚至更多的选民，他说。 据调查，69莱佩奇的支持者百分之是“肯定”的莱佩奇投票，有百分之29相比，“可能”。

调查人员还发现，54米切尔的支持者被definites百分之，百分之44的可能支持她。

和25 Cutler的支持者百分之是明确的，百分之74相比，谁可能会投他的票。

虽然莱佩奇的支持者是“稳如磐石，”布鲁尔说，米切尔的和卡特勒的支持是“不是很扎实。”这些选民是移动的，他说。

“米切尔的支持是不一样的热情保罗莱佩奇的支持下，“同意弗朗茨。 他说：“她好消息是艾略特卡特勒的支持似乎更柔和。”

这些数字说话的“热情的差距”那已经注意到在全国范围内具有较高能量的共和党，民主党人士和较少的热情，他说，。

有需要为莱佩奇，米切尔和卡特勒在赠品的结果，弗兰兹说。

该调查于上周一，在同一天，莱佩奇超过税务问题和他妻子的居留身份，媒体缅因州扭打。 因此，调查不一定反映最新的争议。 但是，弗朗茨说，比赛已通过夏热，和Lepage一直打到其他候选人和民主党，以及硬。

即便如此，他的数据已经稳定，弗兰兹说。

“他不动了，他不动了，但这种支持基础相当稳定，”弗兰兹说。 “这可能是他只需要赢得选举。”

米切尔可以针对卡特勒的选民，弗兰兹说，使其认识到对unenrolled候选人投票，将有助于共和党的候选人。

民调应该告诉卡特勒说，“独立”的消息是不打选民回家。

“你真的越来越少日新月异的时间来改变人们的头脑登特，”弗兰兹说。 “它只是似乎没有奏效。”

候选人之间的相对空间没有多少变化在本次调查中，比公布的9月8日投票公共政策之一。 早先的调查已莱佩奇14分领先米切尔，米切尔卡特勒18分领先。

批判的见解投票看见一对米切尔13分的领先优势莱佩奇。 米切尔是14分，提前卡特勒。

早先的调查有百分之12未定池。 莱佩奇率领由43百分之29百分之米切尔其次，卡特勒场的5个百分点和1个百分点斯科特在11个百分点，穆迪。

加里先令以下注意从已转交由约翰思想莫尔丁为一线。 约翰包括开始和结束在一个简短的说明。 -埃德。

我在飞机上（再次）由苏黎世马洛卡，在那里我会跟我的欧洲和南美的合作伙伴，有一些乐趣，放松，然后前往丹麦和伦敦。 由于疯狂地完成我的书（稍后更多），繁忙的日程这个星期，我还没有来得及写的信。 但是，不要害怕，我留在你的手中最好的。 加里先令博士欣然同意他的九月来信凝结，在那里他在另一个美国经济衰退风险的样子。

我期待在每个月初着越来越加里的最新来信。 我经常把它打印出来，并从我离开办公桌花一些时间读他的思想品质。 他是我的一个“必须读”分析。 我总是学到一些东西非常有用和有见地的。 我很感谢他让我告诉你这一点。

如果您有兴趣得到他的信，他的网站已关闭被重新设计，但你可以写更多的信息insight@agaryshilling.com 。 如果您想订阅（为275美元），你可以调用888-346-7444。 告诉他们，你读到它从前线的思考，你就会在你的订阅额外一个月。 现在，让我们谈谈加里。

- 约翰莫尔丁

由加里先令

投资者的态度在最近几个月突然逆转。 迟至今年三月，大部分翻译的股票，外汇，商品和美国国债的弱点，已经开始了强劲的经济增长较上年同期长达一年的强劲崛起 - “V”型复苏。

因此，投资者认为，今年初迅速创造就业和消费者信心的恢复将刺激零售消费。 他们还看到了住房市场的稳定让位给复苏的证据，和强劲的出口增长也推动了经济。 资本支出，由高科技主导，是另一个强项，许多人认为。

没有那么快

但是，一个有趣的Flash网站，或不那么有趣的Flash网站，事情发生的道路上超收费，能力紧张的增长。 今年四月，投资者开始认识到，欧元区的金融危机，已在一年中的开始，预示欧元下跌，是一个严重的威胁，全球经济增长。 股市回落（图1），商品下跌和美国国债上涨，美元上涨。 这是，毕竟只是一个在这四个大的贸易市场，所以他们的行动对相关下以及向上方并不令人吃惊。

此外，投资者开始担心美国经济健康和大萧条中的二次探底，在2007年12月开始的前景。 巨大的2009年接近1万亿美元的财政刺激措施不多了，威胁要在经济生活中这是政府支持运行复发。 对新购房者8,000美元的税收回扣是4月30日到期可能由在随后的房屋销售下降有其前身是2009年11月到期的活动作为穗今只能从未来的销售借来的一年。 对出口前景已变成负数，健全降压，欧洲经济疲软和当前的“一站式”中国的“走走停停”的货币和财政政策的阶段。 去年春天，剩余的高失业率，投资者开始担心，消费开支将动摇作为财政刺激被耗尽。

去杠杆化

尽管投资者对经济的看法在过去五个月逆转，现实可能还没有。 美好的生活和快速增长，在20世纪80年代初开始是得益于大规模的金融杠杆和过度负债，在全球金融业第一，在20世纪70年代开始，美国消费者和80年代初。 这杠杆推动了科网在90年代末股市泡沫，然后房地产泡沫。 但现在这两个部门都被迫delever和债务转移过程中向各国政府和中央银行。

这种去杠杆化将可能需要十年或更多 - 这是个好消息。 地面覆盖是如此之大，如果它是在一两年走过，主要经济体将经历萧条比上世纪30年代更糟。 这种去杠杆化和其他部队将导致经济增长放缓，可能多年的通货紧缩。 而日本已经表明，这些都是困难的条件下，以抵消货币和财政政策。

全球金融业和美国消费领域的deleveragings是巨大的和持续的。 家庭债务下降了三千七百四十○亿美元自2008年第二季度。 信用卡及其他旋转部件以及非周转件，其中包括汽车和助学贷款都在下降。 企业债务总额下降，如商业和工业贷款下降见证。

与此同时，联邦政府债务爆炸就从五八〇〇〇〇〇〇〇〇〇〇〇美元08年9月30日至88万亿八月下旬。 很多人担心有关这飙升的通胀影响，但实际情况是，公共债务只是将私人债务。 联邦赤字已经跃居为消费者和企业被裁减，其中削减联邦税收收入，而财政刺激措施，在私营部门的弱点，旨在取代已激增。

四个气缸

正如在我们2010年5月在典型的后透视二战经济复苏，四缸火推动经济走出衰退车辆泥浆和重新放到了经济增长的高速公路。 目前，只有一个 - 库存清理结束 - 是产生巨大影响力。 其他三个 - 就业增加，消费开支增长和住宅建筑的复兴 - 是溅射最好的。

库存周期

从历史上看，过剩的库存量在经济衰退的主要活动在经济衰退股账户清算。 围绕业务周期高峰，制造商，批发商和零售商的销售开始削弱，但他们的管理者不能断定这是一个重大的业务下降或有上升趋势，只是一个小倾角的开始。 因此，他们削减生产和订单的延迟，直到下降趋势已经确立。 与此同时，库存销售比率为分子，存货，上升和分母，销售，秋天的飞跃。 这使得生产和订单必须削减和推动了经济的过程中呈下降趋势。

这也是在大萧条的情况。 在我们看来，它真的在2007年初开始在次级住宅抵押贷款的崩溃，然后蔓延到华尔街，与贝尔斯登的两个对冲基金在六月内爆的夏天。 但是，这些是金融下滑，经济衰退是由生产，就业和消费，这是由商品和非金融服务领域占主导地位的经济衡量。 因此，经济衰退没有正式开始，直到2007年12月。

消费者罢工

此外，直到2008年底，在家庭资产的崩溃，房价暴跌（图2），裁员上升（图3）和干涸的消费贷款开进裁员消费者。 但是他们突然罢工去了一个买家，在过去四个月，其结果是在库存销售比率飞跃。 因此，在削减库存摆脱不必要的库存远远走在后二战时代最大的。

在清理库存减少是经济增长的关键在2009年下半年开始。 在去年第三季度，占66％的1.6％的年收益率实际国内生产总值和58年第四季度的5.0％，提前％。 库存在今年第一季度的建筑是67％的实际国内生产总值的3.7％按年率计算上升和36 1.6％，第二季度上升％负责。 总的来说，在过去的四个季度，库存摆动提供了实质本地生产总值3.0％的升幅58％。

无论是库存将继续炒作经济仍然有待观察。 截至今年6月，为零售商的库存销售比恢复到下跌趋势，但仍高于批发商趋势，特别是生产厂家。 此外，它是一回事，完成清算，但不需要的库存重建它们的另一个显着。 后者有可能需要销售力量的其他经济发达地区的，和其他三个经济引擎并没有提供有意义的方式它缸。 恰恰相反。 看来，最近令人失望的零售销售都坚持不想要的商品，可能会被平仓，如果消费者继续裁减商人。

就业滞后

在后二战前的1990-1991年经济衰退的下降，非农就业的底部来到接近最低点，在整体业务量下降，被随后迅速回升（图4）。 在温和1990-1991年和2001年经济衰退甚至较浅，但就业市场依然较去年弱到经济复苏。 同样是真实的这个时候，假设2009年7月经济衰退结束后，许多人认为。 有什么变化？

这并不是说，在疲软的就业复苏轻微的衰退的结果，因为即使在1990-1991年和2001年为轻度衰退，大衰退肯定是在就业（图4）条款不能。 更可能的解释是，全球化，在20世纪80年代开始，美国企业被迫削减成本，大力所有，包括人力成本的外包给国内和国外供应商，促进生产力和削减雇用。 这已经在过去十年中，特别是普遍。

乔布斯永远消失

尽管自2007年底巨大的就业损失，这些工作很多都是不可能返回。 在这770万净非农2007年12月至今年七月淘汰工作，86％是在建造业，制造业，批发和零售贸易，金融，休闲和招待。 这六个行业占44.5％，七月份非农就业人数，只有大约只要他们的损失的一半。 此外，在这些行业的就业产生的就业损失损失在服务和其他依赖于它们的部门。 住宅建筑，例如，马刺在家电，家具，家居摆设和房主保险提供生产性就业和收入，支持国家和地方就业。

鉴于房屋库存过剩造成巨大的威胁和价格进一步下跌，这将需要几年时间才能显示任何有意义的住宅建筑的复兴，正如我们在过去的见解和解释，将在下个月更新。 同样，经济动荡和大规模空置的商业地产将抑制多年的建设和新的就业机会。

库存周期也稳定在近几个月来制造就业，但库存相关的反弹已经结束，制造业失去了200万2007年12月，如果有的话，很可能会成为一个更大数量的就业机会。 商品生产继续转移到海外。 就业减少生产率继续在制造业，消费紧缩，通货紧缩将继续削减消费者的消费耐用品。 特别是批发和零售贸易将继续受到压力与25年消费者的借贷和消费狂潮现在采用节能狂欢（图5）取代。 这一裁员以及持久性业务支出控制将继续阻碍在休闲和招待工作。

财务活动与稳定工作2009年3月，2010年3月华尔街复苏，但最近在市场中的许多证券疲软可能继续将导致更多的裁员和削减奖金。 联邦政府，自然增加了人，262,000 2007年12月，因为它是在应对疲弱的经济扩张。 但州政府削减平衡和地方市政当局128,000 6000，主要是在教育方面。

勤奋削减成本

美国企业一直努力削减成本，因为2007年12月的经济衰退，特别是劳动力成本开始。 最近的一项调查显示，超过一半的成年人被一些裁员，减薪和削减福利，休假和非自愿非自愿组合转向临时职位受到影响。 很多人可能永远无法恢复到其以前的状态。 这些裁员幸运地找到新工作的薪水比通常早。

大约20年的1000多工人的主要雇主％的削减或消除，但在经济衰退期间一半的401（k）计划的捐款未能恢复他们这么远。 与500或更少的削减贡献，只有36％恢复了他们或计划在未来12个月，根据一项调查，富达投资员工的。 此外，所有雇主的10％的人计划，以减少或消除在明年匹配401（k）的捐款。

消费支出

所有的裁员，非自愿休假和临时就业机会和利益，减薪已在企业利润回升的工具，而是毁灭性的员工补偿。 这个法术对消费者支出疲软。 此外，消费者不再储蓄少，借贷信用卡，房屋净值贷款和其他更多的桥梁和理想之间的收入支出的增长差距。 此外，家庭资产已经蒸发（图6），信用卡及其他贷款紧缩贷款标准为准。 因此，他们是在一个节约和减债狂欢狂欢进一步削减消费支出，第三个汽缸，通常大火推动经济从衰退复苏的前景。

事实上，如果没有大规模的财政刺激，制服补偿和经济衰退将推动消费支出大幅下降。 我们的计算表明，消费者就节省80退税他们在2008年夏天收到％。 他们最初保存100 2009年的减税和特别支付250元为每个社会保障受益人％。 这些行动导致在图5所示的储蓄率的峰值。 这是值得注意的，因为减税没有去高收入的人，通常是唯一的大储户。 此外，这些人都是相对数量较少，使他们收到了一些额外的社会安全检查。 因此，中，低收入家庭走出了节约大量的字符。

家庭是去杠杆化与报复其资产负债表。 自2007年当股市开始崩溃第四季度末，个人部门资产下降三点零美元万亿美元。 约一百八十万亿美元的股票和$ 277由于对平衡和公平的直接损失提款所有权和共同基金共同基金亿元。 共同基金投资者投入的资金余额为一月，三月和四月，但将其持有的，尤其是在股票基金，五月和六月。 此外，私人养老储备下降到2007年底七千五百四点零亿美元到2010年3月底，政府和家庭账户养老金储备下跌$ 2900亿美元。 作者：533美元国债持有只增加部分抵消了政府机构的下降以及五千九百三点零亿美元证券。 同时，个人贷款负债下降了5000亿美元，主要是由于抵押贷款和消费者债务下降，因为一些债务偿还，而其他人写成绝望了。

支持政府

自2007年12月经济衰退开始通过2010年6月工资，薪金个人所得税，私营企业主的收入，租金，利息，股息，退休金等福利转移，社会保障，医疗保险和医疗补助金，失业保险增加二千八百五十万点零零万美元。 这将有下降，在没有政府转移支付五千三百二十万点零零零万美元增加二千四百七十〇万点零零万美元。 在政府的财政转移也流经这些增加可支配个人收入（税后收入），这进一步降低的下跌三千八百二十零万点零零万美元由于减税和降低应税收入裁员，削减工资和奖金下降导致个人所得税受益。

总体而言，新闻部是增强5320亿美元从政府转移支付的增加和三八二美元从降低税收亿元。 如果没有这些重大提升，新闻部将下降2007年12月，而不是上升六千六百七点零零亿美元二千四百七十万点零零万美元。 毫无疑问，和程度远远超过了以往任何后二战衰退，消费者已经得到了大量的政府资金在增加转移和减税的形式。 而这些数字还不包括从创建的基础设施开支或由联邦向州和地方政府削减联邦转移保存到教师裁员和削减职位的工资其他就业。

那些钱去？

发生了什么事该六千六百七十零万点零万美元新闻部增加，这是什么告诉了消费者的一种慢性节能热潮的可能性呢？ 约43％是用于保存和64％，因此可能是其早期的减税政策，有些是花了，但延误。 然而，64％的边际储蓄率似乎支持我们的长期储蓄热潮论文。

此外，在消费和储蓄，请注意，无论是在消费领域将条款已经得到了大量的联邦刺激。 这些刺激可能会持续在因长期高失业率未来几年接近目前的水平，因为在早期Insights指出，但似乎不太可能在利率上升，他们没有经济衰退开始以来，由于对已经非常庞大的联邦赤字的影响。 甚至一些共和党和民主党在国会很担心赤字的迅速增长，目前的刺激不太可能延长至少要等到失业的进一步飞跃。 在这种情况下，导致消费者支出的支持撤军可能会使他们失望。 因此，在消费支出的个人收入（图7），已获税，只有通过节约增加部分抵销削减的推动下，共享的飞跃不大可能持续下去。

最近的消费紧缩的证据是猖獗。 消费者信心已夷为平地，人们对就业和收入前景，以及对他们的股票和房屋损失担心。 信用卡贷款余额下降了10％，去年进一步下降，并承诺为消费者偿还债务，贷款标准收紧，新的联邦法律削减信用卡贷款的盈利能力。 与此同时，银行报告指出，消费者贷款的需求继续下降，虽然在利率下降。

增加储蓄不仅被用来偿还债务，但也重建的401（k）第 富达投资发现，在第二季度5.3％的参与者提出了自己的贡献，同时也减少了2.9％，其中。 这超过了下跌的增加为五个季度过剩依然存在，反如下三个季度。 尽管如此，这些数字是挖掘的贷款或提取其帐户困难也上涨。

消费疲弱

在开支方面，七月份汽车销售额为11.5万套率，从小组2008-2009年1000万，但远低于衰退前的水平层次。 消费者对电视，电脑，视频和电话设备支出增长2010年上半年1.8％，与上年同期相比则下降了3.6％，购买家电和家具支出下降11％。 服装销售也输给了电子产品。 这一转变反映了两种力量。 首先，消费者更多的储蓄和消费的装备自己的房子不再欣赏较少，但现在贬值的资产。 其次，他们仍然希望购买ipad公司和其他小奢侈品，我们确定了一个投资主题年前，我们的解释完全满意八月洞察。

房屋仍然低迷

住房部门是一个正常的经济复苏，尽管住宅建筑平均只占国内生产总值的4.7％，在后二战年重要发生器。 这是波动的事项。 住宅建筑为6.3％的GDP在其2005年第四季度的近期高位，但其低下跌至2.4％，而2010年第一季度完成。 下降3.9个百分点，这是非常重要的，考虑到3％的顶部底部的实质本地生产总值的下降是一个重大的经济衰退。

州和地方政府开支

由州和地方政府开支没有经济衰退结束后经济复苏的来源之一，因为它已被20世纪70年代初以来，这种稳定的12％至13％的国内生产总值的份额。 在早期的后二战几十年，迅速成长，以资助战后婴儿教育和郊区如雨后春笋般成长。 各市也提供了稳定的来源，因为工作，直到最近，许多下岗职工较少或较私人部门相对较少的发射和退出。 几年前，“社会契约”认为，这些雇员收到比私营部门的工人，因此提前退休养老金的规定和郁郁葱葱的低工资使他们能够在他们的晚年赶上了。 但20世纪80年代初以来，私营部门已经全球化很少实际收入的增长。 与此同时，州和地方政府的雇员继续得到超额支付引发通货膨胀，现在已经有34％的工资比私营部门雇员（图8）中较高。

联邦帮助

作为其财政刺激计划的一部分，联邦政府正在传输二千四百六点零零零亿美元给州政府，以防止更多的中学教师裁员，医疗费用增长提供资金和插件在国家预算的其他漏洞。 为填补联邦资金30％至40％的国家预算缺口，但预计46个国家是一个一千二百一十点零零亿美元2011年财政年度开始下一个7月1日，相当于其预算的19％，集体赤字。 与39个国家看到差距，总额为2012财年102亿美元。 除非联邦政府继续提供援助，这些赤字将会更大。 佛蒙特州的所有国家，但必须以平衡这种或那种形式的预算，但大多数是在违反被誉为财政噱头和创造性会计得到真正的创意。

预算花招无疑是关系到国有支出的迅速增长，在近几年的债务的飞跃。 国家和地方政府现在使用债务资金用于投资，须以目前的预算基础上进行，而一些发行债券来掩盖日常预算短缺。 共有国家和地方债券债务余额从2000年跃升至2009年，1.2万亿美元二三○○○○○○○○○○○美元93％。

这显然需要一个在咬牙切齿为国家和当地政府扁平化，更切，他们经过了6％至7％的年增长率十年开支外面的黑暗很多。 跳市就业是前几年迅速增长的消费的主要原因，工会和削减经常州和地方的劳动力是非常困难的。 由于大衰退2007年12月开始到四月，私营非农就业人数下降了6.8％。 尽管如此，州和地方工作已经下降，但要少得多，只有1.4％。 今年七月，国家和地方政府，雇用950万，就业机会减少4.8万，10.2万在过去三个月，今年到目前为止，169,000。

加税

In reaction to their financial woes, many state and local governments have attempted to raise taxes and fees. The usual suspects include higher sin taxes on tobacco and alcoholic beverages as well as taxes on companies based out of state but doing some business in the state. Attempts to raise taxes and cut spending have proved wholly inadequate to solving state and local government funding problems. And those woes appear chronic, especially if our forecast of slow economic growth and even deflation is valid. Rises in taxable personal and corporate incomes will be muted. Retail sales and taxes on them will be sluggish as consumers persist for the next decade in their saving spree, replacing the borrowing and spending binge of the last decade.

House prices are likely to fall further in the next year or so, under the weight of gigantic excess inventories. Even when those inventories are worked off, house prices will probably rise little, if at all, in a low inflation or deflationary climate. Historically, they've been flat after correcting for overall inflation and the growing size of houses over time. And now that house prices have fallen nationwide for the first time since the 1930s, home buyers no longer see their abodes as also great, leveraged investments, and want smaller, cheaper houses. That will also reduce assessments on property taxes.

Meanwhile, commercial real estate high vacancies and severe financial problems will take years to resolve, keeping prices depressed for some time (Chart 9 ). So, all things considered, local government property taxes are likely to be curtailed for many years. Meanwhile, municipal expenses will be hard to cut. Chronic high unemployment will spawn high Medicaid enrollment and costs. Welfare and unemployment benefit costs will no doubt rise as well.

Deteriorating finances are raising the risks of defaults on state and local obligations and even municipal bankruptcies. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania's capital, will not make a $3.3 million municipal bond payment on $51.5 million debt that's due in two weeks, and earlier this year, city officials discussed bankruptcy. Harrisburg also lacks the funds to continue payments for the $288 million debt on an incinerator project. Earlier, Jefferson County, Ala., home of Birmingham, defaulted on $227 million due on its disastrous sewer upgrades.

Taxpayer Revolt?

People working in the private sector apparently were willing to accept the higher pay, more job security and better retirement benefits for state and local employees in past years. High employment in the private sector and robust economic growth at least held out the hope that their lots would improve tomorrow. But with slow economic growth, limited income expansion and high unemployment now expected by them for years, voter attitudes appear to be changing.

Americans still want basic municipal services like police and fire protection, good schools for their kids, clean streets and garbage collection. But they apparently are deciding they're paying too much for those services; that 34% higher wages for state and local employees compared to private sector workers isn't justified as pay cuts multiply in the private sector and those laid off earn much less if and when they can find another job; that 66% higher benefit costs is over the top, especially as private sector employees are paying more of their health care premiums and seeing their defined benefit pension plans replaced by much more uncertain 401(k)s.

As taxpayers revolt, there are plenty of things that can be done to reduce state and local government costs in an orderly way. Following in the footsteps of bankrupt GM, two-tier wage structures are being established with existing employees continuing at current salary levels, but new hires paid the much lower wages adequate to attract qualified people. And the new people are enrolled in defined contribution pension plans that require employee contributions, not defined benefit plans, while their retirement ages are increased.

对外贸易

Another economic sector that normally isn'ta significant engine of economic recovery but is important at present is exports since the Administration hopes they will double in the next five years and provide meaningful economic growth. The President's zeal to achieve that goal rises as he realizes that massive fiscal stimuli have not revived the economy, and already-huge federal deficits impede further rounds of big spending.

But two significant problems are likely to retard export growth in future years – rising protectionism that clearly impedes foreign trade, and finding foreign countries that will buy this doubling of American exports. It's like the story of the stockbroker who calls his client during May's Flash Crash to tell him that stocks are collapsing. “Sell my entire portfolio!” yells the distressed client. “Sure,” retorts the broker, “but to whom? There are no buyers.”

Foreign Buyers?

As far as foreign buyers of US exports is concerned, the reality is that many of those markets that are showing robust growth and therefore might be able to absorb American products, lands like China and Germany, are major exporters themselves, not importers on balance. Indeed, it's no surprise that the EU's measures of both industry and household confidence shows that export-led Germany has the highest level while the economically weak Club Med net importers are at the bottom of the pile (Chart 10).

Currency changes have only limited effects on export or import prices. The volatility of US import prices is only about one-fourth that of the dollar and a third in the case of American export prices. 为什么呢？ Many products are sold under long-term contracts and immune from most currency fluctuations. Also, importers and exporters resist reflecting the full extent of exchange rate changes in their prices. If the yen is strong against the dollar, importers of Lexus cars shave their profit margins to offset some of the higher prices in dollars to avoid losing market share. Conversely, US exporters to Japan don't pass on in lower yen prices the full extent of the dollar's decline in order to increase their profits.

“加工贸易”，其中部分是进口的，组装，然后再出口构成了对中国出口的一半。 这降低了人民币汇率的重要性。 此外，与更多的国内外内容甚至完全不敏感的商品交换率在一个全球化的世界。 约有50的儿童的衣服成本中制造％是面料和周围的50面料％的成本是棉花，一个全球交易的大宗商品以美元计价的。 因此，总成本的25％是不会受到人民币波动。 此外，另外25％可能是在服装和面料生产商的合并利润，并可以调整，以抵消币值波动 - 或生产转移到成本较低的越南和孟加拉国，如果人民币的价值跃升。

双底衰退？

我们做了我们对美国非常慢在宿舍，确实是近年来经济增长的情况下，超前。 由于经济回升的库存周期已经结束。 就业和消费开支依然疲弱。 房屋是太库存过剩以及由此产生的价格的疲软在短期内恢复不堪重负。 State and local government spending and employment are retreating. And meaningful export gains are unlikely as economic growth abroad slips. Interestingly, the consensus forecast is moving toward our position as growth estimates have been reduced rapidly in recent months. In both April and June, the Wall Street Journal's poll of economists (not including us) expected 3% economic growth in the second half of this year. We wonder if they still do.

Will slow growth deteriorate into another recession, the so-called double dip scenario? Before exploring that question, let's define a double dip. It seems to mean a second period of economic decline following the 2007-2009 nosedive. That could imply that the recession that the accepted authority, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research, pinpointed as commencing in December 2007, is still underway. Sure, real GDP grew in the last four quarters, but it's common to have quarters of gain within recessions. In the 11 post-World War II recessions so far, seven, including the 2007- 2009 decline, had at least one quarter of rising real GDP within the recession. In fact, two – the 1960-1961 and the 2001 declines – didn't even have two quarters of consecutive decline. Even in the 1929-1933 economic collapse, GDP rose in six quarters.

Still, to have a four-quarter interlude between the declining phases of the same recession would be unprecedentedly long, assuming that real GDP declines in the current quarter. So another period of economic weakness could be classified as a second recession, much as the 1981-1982 decline, which started in July 1981, only 12 months after the 1980 recession ended.

Slow Growth to Recession

We're on record for a 50% or higher probability of a second dip or another recession, whatever it would be called. The composition of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index remains proprietary, but its growth rate has fallen to the level that in the past was always associated with recessions (Chart 11). Historically, however, recessions have been propelled by shocks. The post- World War II downturns prior to 2001 were caused by Fed tightening in response to threats of economic overheating and the resulting higher inflation. Since then, other shocks have been responsible. The 2001 recession resulted from the 2000 collapse of the dot com bubble augmented by the 9/11 shock. The 2007-2009 downturn resulted from the collapse in subprime residential mortgages that commenced early in 2007.

In the current economic and financial climate, it's highly unlikely that the Fed will tighten credit for years. In fact, the central bank has shifted from planning last spring to withdraw liquidity as the economy grew to renewing quantitative easing and worrying about deflation and subpar growth. It said after its August 10 policy meeting that household spending is being retarded by high unemployment, slow income growth, lower home equity and tight credit conditions while bank lending “has continued to contract.”

Pushing On A String

Conventional monetary ease is now impotent with the federal funds rate close to zero , the money multiplier collapsed and banks sitting on hoards of cash (Chart 12) and over $1 trillion in excess reserves. Sure, large banks report to the Fed that they are easing lending standards for small business, but after the intervening financial crisis, many fewer potential borrowers are deemed creditworthy than in the loose lending days. Furthermore, the small business trade group, the National Federation of Independent Business, reports that 91% of small business owners have had their credit needs met or business is so slow that they don't want to borrow. The Fed is pushing on the proverbial string.

The Fed also worries about deflation, which means that even zero interest rates are positive in real terms, as has been the case for years in deflationary Japan. Also, deflation encourages buyers to wait for still-lower prices in a self-feeding cycle, as is seen in Japan and as we have discussed often in conjunction with our forecast of 2% to 3% per year chronic deflation. In it s post- August 10 meeting statement, the Fed said that “measures of underlying inflation,” already low, “have trended lower” lately and are “likely to be subdued for some time.” James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, recently warned of the risks of deflation.

Deflation is a scary phenomenon, but we can't resist noting that the Fed as well as many other forecasters are moving in the direction of our forecast. In contrast, an April 6 Wall Street Journal piece by Peter Eavis stated unequivocally, “No one in their right mind would bet on inflation remaining substantially below 4% for the next 10 years.” Maybe we better have our head examined.

A Baby Step

So, with conventional monetary ease exhausted and further fiscal stimulus on hold because of the already-huge federal deficit, the Fed at its August 10 meeting took a baby step toward more quantitative ease by deciding to buy Treasury bonds to replace the maturing and refinanced Treasury and mortgage-backed securities in the $1.7 trillion hoard it finished buying earlier this year. With low mortgage rates, refinancings were projected to raise the Fed's portfolio contraction from an earlier estimate of $200 billion by the end of 2011 to $340 billion, with another $55 billion coming from retirement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt held by the Fed.

Furthermore, the Fed is open to further steps if the economy continues to slip. It could buy even more Treasurys or mortgage debt. But would the resulting lower interest rates encourage prospective home buyers who now know that house prices can and do fall? Would another $1 trillion in excess reserves induce more bank lending than the first $1 trillion? The Fed could also promise to keep short-term interest rates low, but it's already said it would for an “extended period.”

It could cut out the 0.25% it pays the banks on their reserves, but would that induce reluctant banks to lend? Finally, the Fed could set an inflation target over its formal 1.5% to 2.0% range. That would be anathema for inflation-wary central bankers, and how could the Fed hit that target in a deflationary world where ample supply exceeds weak demand? Despite all the credit easing actions that Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his famous November 2002 speech, said the Fed could take if the federal funds target reached zero, the credit authorities are about out of ammo – except for dumping money out of helicopters. Remember the “Helicopter Ben” moniker?

Other Shocks

If the Fed is highly unlikely to shock slow growth into recession, what could? This brings us back to the series of seemingly isolated events that are occurring on the deleveraging road, such as further financial woes in Europe, a crisis in commercial real estate, a nosedive in the Chinese economy and a slow motion train wreck in Japan. They are all possibilities – as are other shocks here or abroad that we don't foresee. Maybe the exhausting of federal stimulus will be enough to trigger an economic downturn. Keep your eyes pealed, however, because it won't take much disruption to push the fragile global economy back into decline.

Gary Shilling

---

John Mauldin…

Houston, My Book, and New York

Tuesday was a very special day. My co-author, Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception (based in London), and I spent the entire day reading the first complete rough draft of our forthcoming book, The End Game. We went cover to cover, making comments and notes. Of course, I had read the bits and pieces, but not in one sitting. I have to say that I am more than happy. It is a very good first draft, much better than I thought it would be. There is a lot of work ahead, of course, to try and make it a great book, but I can “feel” it. And I think we have managed to capture some very difficult topics and make them simple and maybe even a fun read. We are on target for a January 1 launch.

We make what I feel is an overwhelming case for a period of slow growth in the developed world, with more volatility as the base case. The research we review is very strong. But there are pockets of potential if you step back and take off your localized blinders.

I will be in Houston (along with Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Bill King, and Jon Sundt) at the one-day X-Factor Conference on October 1. Quite the lineup. You can learn more by going to www.streettalklive.com . Then I will be in New York in late October, speaking at the BCA conference and a few media events.

It has been interesting talking with investment types in Europe. They are very curious about the US and what they perceive as our lack of seriousness about the deficit. It appears that Greece has focused their attention. And of course, I get off the plane from Malta yesterday and the headline in the Financial Times says, “Greece rules out possibility of default.” I know that made me feel better. And gave us all a laugh. If you have not, read the piece from Michael Lewis in Vanity Fair on Greece. And then share my amusement about the chances of no default.

It is time to hit the send button. I feel a nap coming on. Jet lag has been worse than normal this trip. And maybe another glass of Prosecco to ease me into slumberland.

Your excited about almost finishing this book analyst,

John Mauldin
John@FrontLineThoughts.com

Copyright 2010 John Mauldin. 保留所有权利

Note: The generic Accredited Investor E-letters are not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of John Mauldin and Millennium Wave Investments. It is intended solely for accredited investors who have registered with Millennium Wave Investments and Altegris Investments at www.accreditedinvestor.ws or directly related websites and have been so registered for no less than 30 days. The Accredited Investor E-Letter is provided on a confidential basis, and subscribers to the Accredited Investor E-Letter are not to send this letter to anyone other than their professional investment counselors. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. John Mauldin is the President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC (MWA), which is an investment advisory firm registered with multiple states. John Mauldin is a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, (MWS), an FINRA registered broker-dealer. MWS is also a Commodity Pool Operator (CPO) and a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) registered with the CFTC, as well as an Introducing Broker (IB). Millennium Wave Investments is a dba of MWA LLC and MWS LLC. Millennium Wave Investments cooperates in the consulting on and marketing of private investment offerings with other independent firms such as Altegris Investments; Absolute Return Partners, LLP; Fynn Capital; Nicola Wealth Management; and Plexus Asset Management. Funds recommended by Mauldin may pay a portion of their fees to these independent firms, who will share 1/3 of those fees with MWS and thus with Mauldin. Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest with any CTA, fund, or program mentioned here or elsewhere. Before seeking any advisor's services or making an investment in a fund, investors must read and examine thoroughly the respective disclosure document or offering memorandum. Since these firms and Mauldin receive fees from the funds they recommend/market, they only recommend/market products with which they have been able to negotiate fee arrangements.

Send to a Friend | Print Article | View as PDF | Permissions/Reprints

You have permission to publish this article electronically or in print as long as the following is included:

John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free Thoughts From the Frontline that goes to over 1 million readers each week. For more information on John or his FREE weekly economic letter go to: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/learnmore

To subscribe to John Mauldin's E-Letter please click here:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/subscribe.asp

To change your email address please click here:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/change.asp

We visited the Ojai, California high school set of the sassy new comedy Easy A last year and saw pretty actress Emma Stone doing a come hither song and dance in a high school gym wearing a hot, lacy bustier and some sexy black stockings. Now… after finally seeing the film, we get it!

Emma plays Olive, a good student/good girl who agrees to help out a male pal by pretending to hook up with him to build his rep with his buds. It works great but the word spreads that Olive is easy and more. How does she beat the rep and get the guy of her dreams? Check out the film opening Sept. 17th.

We're at the 4 Seasons Hotel in Beverly Hills for a sitdown with witty, funny flash websites fellow red-head Emma who is always friendly and ready to spill all! With her hair up and wearing a dark, flower-patterned dress by McQ and 6 inch (at least) beige platform stiletto s by Valentino, the star looks very Hollywood glam. We like her mauve nail polish and big, gold, filigree disc earrings.

As Emma comes in for our chat about her role and the classic '80′s films she loves, we notice that the petite girl is suddenly at least as tall as we are (5'7″). It's those shoes! She puts down her coffee and models them for us.

Emma: Tallest shoes I've ever worn in my life! Wanna know how tall I really am? This is messed up. Check this out [she takes off the shoes and sinks about a foot. We laugh].

TeenHollywood: Okay so super high heels are in with you. After doing the movie, are you a big fan of bustiers now?

Emma: [laughs] Oh yeah. I'ma real 'supporter' of bustiers. I'ma real supporter of that which supports me. Those were from my own personal collection.

TeenHollywood: You seem to be such a thorough preparer for your work. So, did you read Nathaniel Hawthorne's “The Scarlet Letter”?

Emma: No. It's embarrassing to say but I can not tell a lie. I did not. Here's how I'll justify it. Once I got the part, it was go time. We were starting about two weeks after I wrapped Zombieland so, to me, it was so important to have the script completely memorized before we started like you would a play or something so I was so obsessed with reading the script over and over and getting those words down that there were no other books I was reading at the time.

TeenHollywood: It's cool how the book ties in with the movie. Did books effect you a lot as a teen?

Emma: I feel like, when you're a teenager or when you're young, do you remember when you read books or watched movies or listened to music and you made it apply to your life no matter what it was? You're like 'Oh, this book really gets me.' Or 'The Beatles really understand me, specifically' [we laugh]. You made it your own.

TeenHollywood: When you were a teen, were you in the “Let's not and say we did” group of girls?

Emma: Well, I didn't have that traditional high school experience and I was kind of on my own. I was in LA and most of my friends from theater were a bit older than me and in college or whatever. When I was 16 I was friends with some of the people I'm friends with now, and it was a different thing. I talked to my mom more about stuff like that than I did my friends because I wasn't really hanging out with girls my age. So, that [doing it or not] was really more a conversation between my mom and I so you can probably tell where I fell in what category [laughter].

TeenHollywood: Did you do anything when you were a teen to get attention because Olive likes the attention she is getting for a while?

Emma: Only theater and what I do now [laughs]. I was such a ham.. such a ham [she rolls her eyes]. I was awful! Oh my God, always loud. I was _that _kid.

TeenHollywood: With friends or out in public? Would you be at the mall and suddenly just break into song?

Emma: Oh no, no, definitely not that. That would be embarrassing but it was with friends. I was pretty hammy. But, this hopefully, has curbed. When I was a kid I was also bossy and that's a bad combination; a hammy, bossy kid. So, my mom tried to get that out of me pretty quickly.

TeenHollywood: Are you the oldest child?

Emma: Yeah and my brother is just so sweet. He's great and quiet and I've always wanted to be more like him; only speak when you have something really important to say. I'm just like 'wa, wa, wa, wa, wa' and none of it matters.

TeenHollywood: We've talked before and I think you were home schooled. Did you ever have the chance to be the “cool girl”, the “drama girl” or anything?

Emma: Yes, I was home schooled so all of the above. I didn't really have a traditional high school experience. I did go to a high school for a semester of my Freshman year but it wasn't really long enough to be able to gage all that.

TeenHollywood: So then was it difficult to get into this character not having a high school experience?

Emma: Not really because I didn't feel it was a high school movie parse. We're not really dealing with any of the traditional things; graduation or prom or any of the rights of passage of high school. It was more a story about reputation and technology [fast rumor spreading] and judgment and it just happened to be through the eyes of a 17-year-old girl but you don't really see us doing too much 'school-ish' stuff even though we're in the hallways a lot.

TeenHollywood: That's true. But, as a young actor, you go through a similar thing; you're always being scrutinized by the media and your reputation is kind of out there for better or worse. Can you relate to it on that level?

Emma: Probably. There's definitely an element of that. I wouldn't say as much personally because my life is a pretty standard, livable life. There's a lot of other actresses my age that wouldn't be able to say that so I'm lucky but, seeing that and watching that happen, there's probably definitely an element of that.

TeenHollywood: This is really your film. Did you feel extra pressure or go about it like any acting role?

Emma: For me it was less about the size of the role and trying to bring Olive to life in the most accurate way I could to the script. That pressure was what I was thinking about. It wasn't how many lines there were or how many scenes I was in, it was more playing her accurately and making sure that she stayed how she was on the page because she was so fleshed out and fantastic in writing. I don't know if I did her justice but I tried. [we tell her she did].

TeenHollywood: Was the family dog in the film as lovable as he looked?

Emma: Yes. It had halitosis, so incredibly lovable….but smelly!

TeenHollywood: We understand that you went home after your audition for the part and made a webcam video? Was that just on your own?

Emma: No. [Director] Will [Gluck] asked me to do that.

TeenHollywood: It worked great. You're a computer person, right?

Emma: Bigtime, yeah. But I was horrified when he asked me, 'Can you go home after you've been working on this audition and memorizing these things, can you go home and send me a webcam of you?' I was like 'Oh God'. Because it's one thing in the audition room when you're like 'Oh, I wish I hadn't done that but they're making me leave'.

When you go home and you have to record yourself and have so many opportunities to watch it again and beat yourself up and delete it and do it again and again and again before you finally send it in, it feel like you put a stamp on it, 'This is what I think is the best thing I could do'. It was the first monologue of the movie. It was like a minute long.

TeenHollywood: Are you on Facebook and do you tweet?

艾玛：不是，我喜欢它。 I completely understand it. I was into websites when I was a kid, making them and I thought that was what I wanted to do but that was 1999 and 2000 and there weren't blogs yet. It was the age of e-zines; you would sign up and get them in your e-mail. It was just when Flash had come around and I was dabbling in Flash but it's such a complicated program so I kind of faded out.

TeenHollywood: So, you love computers and the internet but no Facebook or tweeting? I'm confused.

Emma: Social networking and blogs are so fascinating to me but I have an addictive personality and the second I get involved in something like that it will consume me. I didn't want to be consumed by Twitter. I didn't want to be a slave to Twitter so I've had to limit myself and have a little phone detox time and take a little hit of IM once in a while.

TeenHollywood: Makes total sense! Your co-star Penn said he hadn't seen most of the John Hughes '80′s movies this film references. Had you?

Emma: [She nods big "yes"]. Are you serious? He hadn't seen them? I didn't know that. Had he seen Say Anything ? [NOTE: This was actually a Cameron Crowe movie,.. written and directed by.. not John Hughes]

TeenHollywood: He said no but he knows the [famous] photo [of John Cusack holding up the boom box].

Emma: He'd seen it on a t-shirt? Oh my Lord, that's all I watched when I was a kid. My dad, when it comes to comedy, that was his favorite. The first movie I ever remember watching was The Jerk then Planes, Trains and Automobiles, Animal House, Ferris Bueller's Day Off and The Breakfast Club. Planes, Trains and Automobiles is a John Hughes movie, don't forget. The brilliance of John Hughes was so exciting.

I know Will feels the same way because he's his favorite director. It was so exciting to get to pay tribute and homage to John Hughes because he told his stories in the most empathetic way. That's why they still resonate [when you're] an adult. They might be set in high school but that's a universal truth. He was just absolutely phenomenal.

TeenHollywood: In Easy A , you had the musical number for no reason what-so-ever, like in “Ferris Bueller”. How hard was that to shoot for you?

Emma: It was a little interesting being dressed like that and singing and dancing in front of your peers but I must admit it was actually pretty fun because I grew up doing musical theater so, even though I'm not really a big singer or dancer anymore, it was fun to get to do that. My “hammy' side is coming back in. [She wiggles her shoulders in "sexy" mode] 'Oh yeah! I got a boa. I get to do this'. Oh Lord.

TeenHollywood: What interested you about the character of Olive?

Emma: Everything. I thought she was just layered and realistic and funny flash websites, clever and confused and, the story that she goes through was very interesting to me thematically and her relationship with her parents and her friends and how she takes the matter into her own hands [was great].

Usually a false rumor gets started about you and all you want to do is deny it and she decides to take it to the next level and see what it's like to go for it full-throttle because she knows the truth. And, I like that she was bold enough to know that if it's not hurting anybody, then why does it matter? When it starts to hurt people, that's when things start to spiral out of control but, when it's only her dealing with it, she just has fun with it and is a confident girl that knows herself well enough to know the truth and be comfortable with that.

TeenHollywood: How many takes for the bedroom scene to end all bedroom scenes? [She and her guy friend are jumping around on a bed pretending to be getting it on].

Emma: Oh my God. Too many. There were so many angles in that scene. It went on and on but it was one of my favorite scenes when I read the script. I thought it was so funny flash websites. You've got to be a pretty bold girl and guy to go to a party with all those people dressed like that acting like that. She doesn't even drink and she's so “drunk”.

TeenHollywood: Were you really out of breath doing that scene and needed oxygen. It was in the press kit…

Emma: I love that it was in the press kit. Will Gluck is an ass! Yes, I had an asthma attack without having asthma. I've been making an Olive pun about it, saying I have adult “on set” asthma [groans]. I've only had one asthma attack in my life and it was that day. They just showed me the behind-the-scenes thing from the DVD where Will is talking about my asthma attack and he goes 'I don't even think Em's ever even seen the inside of a gym so..' He's such an ass. Of course he's gonna tell that story [she laughs].

TeenHollywood: What's coming up for you?

Emma: There's a movie coming out in April called Crazy Stupid Love and I'm shooting a movie called The Help based on the book, in Mississippi. We're shooting right now. It's incredible. You've got to read the book. It's just fantastic.

TeenHollywood: So you did read that one.

Emma: Yes. I was talking to Viola Davis who plays one of the lead characters. She's so unbelievable saying the other day. 'when we're on the press tour for The Help I think we should say, 'and then halfway through shooting, someone said there's a book and we thought we should read that'. So, if we see you next year we won't be able to pull that fast one on you. But I might try to pull it a couple of times.

TeenHollywood: Do you have scenes with Bryce Dallas [Howard]?

Emma: Oh yeah. She's got flippy bright red hair in the movie but I wear a blonde wig. We're in these crinolines and we all have our Maidenform bras and girdles. 它的神奇。 [Southern accent] We're all talkin' like that.

By Niall Kitson

The other day I came across a t-shirt in a shop on Grafton Street that gave me a chuckle. In nice bright writing across the chest it read “Don't Google it, just ask me”.

It's funny flash websites but it also sums up the current state of the internet, specifically the ways we find information and how reliable we consider it. Academics would call what's going on a 'paradigm shift' – a fundamental change in the way we understand something.

广告

But, unlike the fields of science and literature the term was initially applied to, the web is an exponentially expanding phenomenon, equal parts process and discourse. It's the merging of these two occasionally opposed elements that consist of a new understanding of how to navigate the web for content that's relevant to the user but also immersive, engaging and trustworthy.

The main players in the game are also somewhat unlikely bedfellows: Google and its scientific, orderly methodology, and social networks with their subjective noise and narrow personal networks (note: the average number of friends per user on Facebook is 130).

From these apparently opposed perspectives we are expected to make sense of the world? Well…yes. But it's not as awful as it sounds.

To go back to my t-shirt at the start of this piece let's take the first half of the print: “Don't Google it”. Why wouldn't you Google something? Well aside from appearing completely uninterested in engaging another human being in conversation, using a search engine to find information comes with certain risks.

Google's mission statement is all about the organisation of all the information in the world across all media – print, audio, video and whatever comes over the horizon. Since its founding Google has been about process; the sorting and organisation of other people's content based on an algorithm that looks for value not solely on the proliferation of keywords in body text (although that does help) but the links between websites.

If this piece were to appear on a random blog in the ether you probably would not be able to find it. Put it in a highly organised and optimised environment as this website and you can find it in a flash. That's the way Google works at its most efficient – letting the hive mind of the internet (ie the users) decide what's interesting (if not accurate) and giving it prominence by a democratic process of linking.

The problem with this model, which has served the web for so long, is that raw information is not what the web thrives on anymore, it's discourse.

Shaping the conversation

This brings us to the second half of the print: “Just ask me”. When in doubt who better to ask that a trusted source like a friend or newspaper of record? If you have a problem why would you shout your question into a crowded room of faceless strangers when you could ask your friend – who you know is an expert – or read a newspaper whose level of reporting you rate.

If you would rather do that then welcome to the world of social media – where networks are small, exposure to information managed and the people you share it with less likely to be arbitrarily abusive.

Anyone who uses social networks like Twitter and Facebook knows that, as valuable as they are for keeping up with friends and fostering connections, they make excellent walled gardens for spreading news, asking advice and seeking recommendations for just about anything.

In fact it could be argued that the top thing people do online now is not search but engage in dialogue. The challenge for 'old fashioned' search engines like Google and Bing is how to integrate the wisdom of crowds in finding sources of information (process) with conversation from multiple social sources as quickly as questions can be asked or stories broken (conversation).

The development of such a 'real-time web' of instant reportage and analysis is a complex problem but it seems Google has an answer.

Launched this week, Google Instant has been touted as one way to speed up searches based on combinations of letters as they are input into the search bar. Consider it something like what happens when you type in an address and it completes itself based on your browsing history.

It's a simple move designed to cut down on search times. Another component to Google's real-time search formula is 'Trends'. Already familiar to Twitter users (who tag contributions to specific topics with a '#' symbol so developments can be easily followed) the idea here is that information from social networks can be integrated into regular search to give a sense not only of the raw material but its interpretation in real time.

For example if a political or financial story breaks and is reported on this site you can gauge the progress of the conversation around it and its popularity. Consider it the equivalent of posting a link to a story on your Facebook wall and having your friends comment on it…only on a global scale. Tweets, status updates, discussion forums, anything with open access can be aggregated and delivered as part of a concise package of results that changes as soon as new content is published making for a constantly evolving resource.

Such is the new model of search that analysis and bare fact will be treated as complementing instead of competing sources of information. “Don't Google, just ask me” won't be about choosing between processes, just scale.

Niall Kitson is editor of PC Live! and co-host of TechLife

For more on technology, listen to the podcast at www.pcliveradio.ie

Lately, I've been feeling very self-conscious when talking on the phone in public, and it's not because I'm worried about strangers listening in on my private conversations.

Rather, it's because the cellphone I'm using — the recently released Dell Streak — is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin — a fraction the size of Apple's popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display.

Yet Dell insists it is also a phone and, as such, it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google's Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's big size is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth to me. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smartphone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smartphones, though.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software — version 1.6 — which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos.

Dell says the Streak will get what is currently the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by the decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available on a number of current smartphones.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease.

Fortunately, the Streak comes with a fully functional 5-megapixel digital camera on its back. The camera takes sharp images and has a bright flash, and the display functions as perhaps the biggest viewfinder you've ever used. There are plenty of options for adjusting your shots, and I was able to take a bunch of crisp shots. You'll need to hold it steady while snapping, though, because the Streak takes a long time to take a photo after you've pressed its shutter button.

And you'll probably want to use headphones with the Streak, as the quality of its built-in speaker is dismal. When watching a Ted Leo And The Pharmacists music video online, the sound was muddled, even at a low volume. Because the speaker is located on the Streak's back, it gets even harder to hear when you set the gadget down.

Fresher software will surely improve the Streak, but whether you're looking for a phone, a tablet computer or both, the Streak falls short. Performance-wise, that is; in reality, it's anything but.

Motorola has published another full-page ad for one of its Android devices, and takes a poke at the iPhone's inability to access Flash.

By <!– –>
Eric Zeman

InformationWeek
September 3, 2010 02:21 PM

By RACHEL METZ Associated Press
Published: 8/31/2010  2:20 AM
Last Modified: 8/31/2010  7:49 AM

Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using – the just-released Dell Streak – is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak – $300 with a two-year AT&T contract – is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it's fairly small and thin – a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display.

Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, they streamed well

from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen, but they didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software – version 1.6 – which means it's missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching videos.

Dell Inc. says the Streak will get what is currently the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only currently enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update.

Fortunately, the Streak comes with a fully functional 5-megapixel digital camera on its back. The camera takes sharp images and has a bright flash, and the display functions as perhaps the biggest viewfinder you've ever used.

And you'll probably want to use headphones with the Streak, as the quality of its built-in speaker is dismal. And because the speaker is located on the Streak's back, it gets even harder to hear when you set the gadget down. Fresher software will surely improve the Streak, but whether you're looking for a phone, a tablet computer or both, the Streak falls short.

Original Print Headline: Dell Streak is awkward phone, so-so tablet

SAN FRANCISCO — Lately I've been feeling very self-conscious when talking on the phone in public, and it's not because I'm worried about strangers listening in on my private conversations.

Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using — the just-released Dell Streak — is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin — a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display. Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones, though.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded kind of fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software — version 1.6 — which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos.

Dell Inc. says the Streak will get the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by the decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available now on a number of smart phones.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease.

SAN FRANCISCO — Lately I've been feeling very self-conscious when talking on the phone in public, and it's not because I'm worried about strangers listening in on my private conversations.

Rather, it's because the cell phone I'm using — the just-released Dell Streak — is actually a touch-screen tablet device that makes some of the clunkiest handsets from the late '90s look diminutive by comparison.

The Streak ($300 with a two-year AT&T contract) is a complicated gadget. For a tablet computer, it is fairly small and thin — a fraction the size of Apple Inc.'s popular iPad. Its face is dominated by a touch screen that is 5 inches diagonally, compared with the iPad's 9.7-inch display. Yet Dell insists it is also a phone, and as such it is fairly enormous and uncomfortable to talk on. Beyond that, it comes with an older version of Google Inc.'s Android software. Overall, it's just too awkward to bear.

The Streak's enormity is inescapable. It's a little less than 6 inches long and 3 inches across, so it looked mammoth in my petite hands. I felt like a little kid holding her father's smart phone.

It was clear from the start that carrying around the black gadget would be a chore. It fit into the back pockets of my jeans, but protruded noticeably. I was afraid it would fall out or be filched by some tablet-phone-hungry thief. As a result, I had to carry it in a bag or hold it in my hand if I wanted to tote it around, and this latter option quickly got old.

Still, I figured the Streak's size would be great for at least one thing: watching videos. As expected, videos streamed well from such sites as YouTube and funny flash websites or Die, probably helped by the device's 1 GHz processor. Images looked sharp and bright on the screen. They didn't look quite as stellar as they do on Apple's latest iPhone or Samsung's new Galaxy S smart phones, though.

There is plenty of storage space on the Streak for the videos you want to watch (and for photos and songs, too), as it includes a 16-gigabyte microSD memory card. And the device's battery seemed to have no problem getting through a day filled with video and music streaming, Web surfing and chatting.

The screen was also a swell surface for checking out Google Maps and other websites. I liked having extra real estate to look up directions and see pages that contained both photos and text. But using it to instant message my friends was more difficult than on other touch-screen keyboards I've used; despite the Streak's size, I kept hitting the wrong keys.

Using the Streak to make phone calls was a new experience. I felt weird holding it up to my ear, imagining quizzical looks as I walked down the street. The Streak didn't sound bad, but it didn't sound great, either. Calls sounded kind of fuzzy on my end, and in one frustrating exchange the screen kept changing orientation while I was on the phone, which also meant that the physical button that allowed me to turn the sound up and down kept reversing functions.

Beyond the Streak's basic awkwardness, its biggest flaw is that it relies on old software. Despite the inclusion of a swift processor, the Streak is saddled with an older version of the Android operating software — version 1.6 — which means it is missing some of latest features and can't run some applications that call for newer operating software. It also lacks Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 for watching Flash videos.

Dell Inc. says the Streak will get the latest Android software, version 2.2, later this year and will get Flash 10.1, too. I'm stymied by the decision to not even start out the Streak with version 2.1, which is available now on a number of smart phones.

Another odd handicap: Although the Streak has a low-resolution front-facing camera, which could be used for video chatting, it's only enabled for taking photos and videos. Video chat is expected to work when the device gets the Android software update, but for now it feels like quite a tease.