有趣的失眠症博客

昔日的2010年9月18日

又來了一個雙谷經濟衰退...

管理員於9月18日,2010年,在有趣的Flash網站

以下注意從加里先令轉交約翰莫爾丁的思考一線。 約翰包括一個簡短的說明,在開始和結束。 -埃德。

我在飛機上(再次)由蘇黎世馬洛卡,在那裡我會跟我的歐洲和南美的合作夥伴,有一些樂趣,放鬆,然後前往丹麥和倫敦。 由於瘋狂地完成我的書(更多稍後)和一個繁忙的日程這個星期,我還沒有來得及寫的信。 但是,不要害怕,我給你最好的手中。 加里先令博士欣然同意他的九月來信凝結,他著眼於另一次衰退的風險在美國。

我期待著在每個月開始時得到加里的最新來信。 我經常把它打印出來,然後步行離開我的辦公桌花一些時間讀他的思想品質。 他是我的一個“必須讀”分析。 我總是學到一些東西非常有用和有見地的。 我很感謝他讓我與你分享這個。

如果你有興趣讓他的信中,他的網站已關閉被重新設計,但你可以寫更多的信息在insight@agaryshilling.com 如果您想訂閱(為 275美元),你可以調用 888-346-7444。 告訴他們,你讀到它在思想,從前線工作,你會得到額外一個月您的訂閱。 現在,讓我們談談加里。

- 約翰莫爾丁

由加里先令

投資者的態度在最近幾個月突然逆轉。 遲至今年三月,大部分翻譯了長達一年的強勁上升,股票,外匯,商品和國債的弱點,民政事務總署在一年前開始了強勁的經濟增長 - “V”型復甦。

因此,投資者認為,今年初迅速創造就業和消費者信心的恢復將刺激零售消費。 他們還看到了房地產市場的證據穩定讓位給復甦,以及強勁的出口增長也推動了經濟。 資本支出帶動下,高科技,是另一個領域的力量,許多人認為。

沒有那麼快

但是,一個有趣的Flash網站,或不那麼有趣的Flash網站,事情發生的道路上超收費,能力緊張的增長。 今年四月,投資者開始認識到,歐元區的金融危機,已被宣告在年初的下降,歐元,是一個嚴重的威脅,全球經濟增長。 股市回落(圖 1),商品下跌和美國國債上漲,美元上漲。 這是,畢竟只是一個大的這四個市場之間的貿易,所以他們的行動對相關下以及向上方並不令人吃驚。

 Here Comes A Double Dip Recession...

此外,投資者開始擔心美國經濟的健康與發展前景為第二浸在大衰退,2007年12月開始。 巨大的2009年財政刺激近1萬億美元不多了,威脅要復發的經濟,運行在政府機關的支持。 8000美元退稅的新的購房者是4月30日到期之後,可能是一個房屋銷售下降有其前身為 2009年11月,過期的穗在今年年初的活動只借了未來的銷售。 出口前景已變成負數,健全降壓,歐洲經濟疲軟和當前的“一站式”階段中國的“走走停停”的貨幣和財政政策。 由於失業率居高不下,去年春天,投資者開始擔心,消費開支將動搖作為財政刺激被耗盡。

去槓桿化

儘管投資者對經濟的看法已經扭轉了過去五個月,現實可能還沒有。 美好的生活和快速增長,開始於 20世紀 80年代初是得益於大規模的金融槓桿和過度負債,首先是在全球金融領域,開始在70年代和80年代初在美國的消費者。 這槓桿推動了科網股市泡沫在1990年代後期,然後房地產泡沫。 但現在這兩個部門都被迫delever和債務轉移過程中向各國政府和中央銀行。

這種去槓桿化將可能需要十年或更多 - 這是個好消息。 地面覆蓋是如此之大,如果它是走過了一年或兩年,主要經濟體將經歷嚴重蕭條比上世紀 30年代。 這種去槓桿化和其他部隊將導致經濟增長緩慢和通貨緊縮可能多年。 而日本已經表明,這些都是困難的條件下,以抵消貨幣和財政政策。

該 deleveragings全球金融業和美國的消費領域是巨大的和持續的。 家庭債務下降了三千七百四十○億美元第二季度以來的08年。 信用卡及其他旋轉部件以及非周轉件,其中包括汽車和助學貸款都在下降。 企業債務總額下降了,因為目睹了商業和工業貸款下降。

與此同時,聯邦政府債務爆炸就從五八〇〇〇〇〇〇〇〇〇〇〇美元08年9月30日至88萬億八月下旬。 許多人擔心通貨膨脹的影響,這種激增,但實際情況是,公共債務只是將私人債務。 聯邦赤字已經躍居為消費者和企業被裁減,其中削減聯邦稅收收入,而財政刺激計劃,旨在取代私營部門的弱點,已如雨後春筍般。

四個氣缸

在我們所討論的洞察2010年5月,在典型的後二戰經濟復甦,四缸火推動經濟走出衰退車輛泥漿和退出到高速公路的經濟增長。 目前,只有一個 - 期末庫存清理 - 正在產生巨大影響力。 其他三個 - 就業增加,消費開支增長和復甦的住宅建築 - 是濺射最好的。

庫存週期

從歷史上看,過剩的庫存清算佔主要份額的下降,經濟活動的衰退。 圍繞業務週期高峰,銷售商,批發商和零售商開始削弱,但他們的管理者不能斷定這是開始下降的一個主要業務或只是一個小浸有上升的趨勢。 因此,他們削減生產和訂單的延遲,直到下降趨勢已經確立。 與此同時,庫存銷售比率為飛躍分子,存貨,上升和分母,銷售,下降。 這使得削減生產和訂單勢在必行,推動了經濟的過程中呈下降趨勢。

這也是在大蕭條的情況。 在我們看來,它真的在2007年初開始與次級住宅抵押貸款崩潰,然後蔓延到華爾街夏天,隨著內爆兩個貝爾斯登對沖基金在六月。 但是,這些是金融下滑,經濟衰退是衡量生產,就業和消費,這是佔主導地位的商品和非金融服務領域的經濟。 因此,經濟衰退沒有正式開始,直到2007年12月。

消費者罷工

此外,直到2008年底在國內的權益倒塌房屋價格急劇下降(圖 2),裁員上升(圖 3)和枯竭消費者的消費貸款驅車到裁員。 但是他們突然罷工去了一個買家,在過去四個月 2008年,並對其結果進行跨越的庫存銷售比率。 因此,削減庫存擺脫不必要的股票都遠遠地佔據了最大的在後二戰時代。

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這一減少的庫存清理已經開始對經濟增長的關鍵在2009年下半年。 在去年第三季度,它佔 66%的1.6%的年收益率實際國內生產總值和58%,第四季度的5.0%的增幅。 庫存建設在今年第一季度的67%負責的3.7%的年增長率上升,實質本地生產總值和36%的漲幅為 1.6%,第二季度完成。 總的來說,在過去的四個季度,庫存擺動提供58%的3.0%的增長實際 GDP。

無論是庫存將繼續炒作經濟仍然有待觀察。 截至6月底,庫存銷售比為零售商已經回到其下降趨勢,但仍高於趨勢批發商,特別是生產廠家。 此外,它是一回事,完成清算不必要的存貨,但他們重建的另一個顯著。 後者有可能需要銷售實力原產於其他地區的經濟,而其他三個缸發動機的經濟是不提供有意義的方式。 恰恰相反。 看來,最近令人失望的零售銷售都堅持與不需要的商品,商家可能會被平倉,如果消費者繼續收縮。

就業滯後

在後二戰前的1990-1991年經濟衰退的下降,非農就業的底部來到接近最低點,在整體業務下降,其次是快速反彈(圖 4)。 在溫和 1990-1991年和2001年經濟衰退甚至較淺,但就業市場仍然疲弱到了一年多的經濟復甦。 同樣是真實的這個時候,假設經濟衰退2009年7月結束,許多人認為。 有什麼變化?

這並不是說一個輕微的衰退導致疲軟的就業復甦,因為即使在1990-1991年和2001年為輕度衰退,大蕭條肯定是沒有條件的職位(圖 4)。 但可能會將是全球化,開始在1980年代美國人業務被迫削減一切代價積極,其中包括勞動力成本通過外包給國內及外國供應商提高生產力和削減僱用。 這一直盛行,特別是在過去的十年。

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喬布斯永遠消失

儘管巨大的就業損失,2007年底以來,許多這些工作是不可能返回。 在這 770萬淨非農就業機會消除2007年12月至今年七月,86%是在建造業,製造業,批發和零售貿易,金融,休閒和招待。 這六個行業佔 44.5%,七月份的非農就業人數,大約只有一半多的損失。 此外,這些行業的失業產生的就業損失和其他部門的服務依賴於他們。 住宅建築,例如,馬刺在生產領域中就業的家電,家具,家居擺設和房主保險和提供收入支持國家和地方就業。

由於巨大的過剩庫存過剩以及由此產生的房屋價格進一步下跌,這將需要幾年時間才能顯示任何有意義的住宅建築的復興,正如我們在過去的解釋見解,並會在下個月更新。 同樣,經濟動盪和大規模空置的商業地產將抑制新的建設和工作多年。

庫存週期也穩定在近幾個月製造業的就業情況,但庫存相關的反彈已經結束,2萬個製造業就業機會失去了自2007年12月,如果有的話,很可能會成為一個更大的數目。 商品生產繼續轉移到海外。 工作在繼續減少製造業生產率的提高,消費緊縮,通貨緊縮將繼續減少耐用消費品的消費。 特別是批發和零售貿易將繼續受到壓力與 25年消費者的借貸和消費狂潮現在取而代之的是一個儲蓄大禮包(圖 5)。 這一裁員以及持久性業務支出控制將繼續阻礙在休閒和接待工作。

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財務活動與穩定工作2009年3月,2010年3月復甦的華爾街,但可能較近期的持續疲軟,許多證券市場將導致更多的裁員和削減獎金。 聯邦政府,自然增加了人,262,000 2007年12月,因為它擴大了應對疲弱的經濟。 但州政府削減 6,000 128,000平衡和地方市政當局,主要是在教育方面。

勤奮削減成本

美國企業一直努力削減成本,經濟衰退開始以來,2007年12月,特別是勞動力成本。 最近的一項調查顯示,超過一半的成年人都受到某種結合裁員,削減工資和福利,休假和非自願非自願轉移到臨時工作。 很多人可能永遠無法恢復到其以前的狀態。 這些裁員幸運地找到新工作的薪水比通常早。

約有 20%的主要雇主,超過 1,000名工人削減或消除其401(k)計劃在經濟衰退期間的貢獻,但有一半未能恢復他們這麼遠。 其中500或更少的僱員削減貢獻,只有36%恢復了他們或計劃在未來 12個月內,根據富達投資的調查。 此外,10%的雇主計劃,以減少或消除匹配401(k)的捐款,在未來的一年。

消費支出

所有的裁員,非自願休假和臨時就業機會和利益,減薪都有助於在企業利潤回升,但毀滅性的員工補償。 這對消費者支出疲軟的法術。 此外,消費者不再借更多的儲蓄少,信用卡,房屋淨值及其他貸款之間的差距縮小收入和支出的增長預期。 此外,家庭資產已經蒸發(圖 6)和嚴格的貸款標準的信用卡及其他貸款為準。 因此,他們是在一個節約和減少債務狂歡熱潮,進一步削減消費支出的前景,第三個汽缸,通常大火推動經濟復甦,從衰退。

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事實上,如果沒有大規模的財政刺激,制服補償和經濟衰退將推動消費支出大幅下降。 我們的計算表明,消費者就節省 80%的退稅,他們收到了2008年夏天。 他們最初保存100%,2009年的減稅和特別支付250美元,每一個社會保障的受益者。 這些行動導致了儲蓄率的高峰在圖 5所示。 這是值得注意的,因為減稅沒有去高收入的人,通常是唯一的大儲戶。 此外,這些人的數量相對較少,所以他們很少收到額外的社會安全檢查。 因此,中,低收入家庭走出來節省大量的性格。

家庭是去槓桿化的資產負債表,咄咄逼人。 自從結束的2007年第四季度當股市開始崩潰,個人部門資產下降三點零美元萬億美元。 有些是在1.8萬億美元合2770億美元的股票和共同基金因虧損從權益平衡和提款直接所有權和共同基金。 投資者把錢投入共同基金的結餘在一月,三月和四月,但將其持有的,尤其是在股票基金,五月和六月。 此外,私人養老庫存下降七千五百四十零點零億美元從 2007年底到2010年3月底,政府在家庭養老儲備金帳戶的下跌$ 2900億美元。 增加國債持有的五三三美元只下降部分抵消了政府機構和證券為 5.93億美元。 與此同時,個人貸款負債減少 5000億美元,下降主要是由於抵押貸款和消費者債務償還一些債務,而其他人撇無望。

支持政府

自2007年12月經濟衰退開始到2010年6月個人所得稅工資,薪金所得,經營者收入,租金,利息,股息和轉讓,如養老福利,社會保障,醫療保險和醫療補助金,失業保險增加二千八百五十萬點零零萬美元。 這將下降二千四百七萬點零萬美元沒有五三二○○○○○○○○○美元提高政府轉移支付力度。 這些增加政府的財政轉移也流經可支配個人收入(稅後收入),從而進一步受惠於較低的個人所得稅的下降三千八百二十〇點零零零億美元由於減稅和降低應納稅所得額造成的裁員,削減工資和獎金下降。

總體而言,新聞部是增強五千三百二十○點零零億美元從提高政府轉移和三千八百二億美元從低稅率。 如果沒有這些重大提升,新聞部將下降2470億美元2007年12月以來增加反而六千六百七點零零零億美元。 毫無疑問,和程度遠遠超過了以往任何後二戰衰退,消費者已經得到了大量的政府資金的形式增加的轉移和減稅。 而這些數字還不包括工資從工作崗位上創造的聯邦支出節省了基礎設施或聯邦政府轉移到州和地方政府削減教師和其他就業減少裁員。

那些錢去?

發生了什麼事該六千六百七十零萬點零萬美元增加DPI和什麼告訴我們的是一種慢性的可能性消費者節省熱潮? 約 43%的IT和64%是用於保存,所以也許一些早期的減稅政策,都用,但延誤。 然而,64%的邊際儲蓄率似乎支持我們的長期儲蓄熱潮論文。

此外,在消費和儲蓄方面的注意,無論已持續在消費領域已經得到了大量的聯邦刺激。 這些刺激may堅持在接近目前的水平在未來幾年由於長期高失業率,正如在以前的見解,但似乎不太可能在利率上升,他們 did經濟衰退開始以來,由於其影響到已經非常龐大的聯邦赤字。 共和黨和民主黨在國會甚至有些是很擔心,目前的赤字迅速增長的刺激不太可能延長至少要等到失業的進一步飛躍。 在這種情況下,最終撤出支持消費者支出可能會使他們失望。 因此,消費者支出的飛躍作為共享的個人收入(圖 7),已推動減稅的只是部分抵消了儲蓄的增加,是不大可能持續下去。

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最近的消費緊縮的證據是猖獗。 消費者信心已夷為平地,因為人們擔心就業和收入前景,以及他們的股票虧損和房屋。 信用卡貸款餘額下降了10%,去年進一步下降,並承諾為消費者償還債務,貸款標準收緊,新的聯邦法律削減了盈利能力的信用卡貸款。 與此同時,銀行報告說,消費貸款需求繼續下降,儘管下降的速度。

增加儲蓄不僅被用來償還債務,但也重建的401(k)第 富達投資發現,在第二季度5.3%的與會者提出了他們的貢獻,同時也減少了2.9%,其中。 過量的增幅下降已持續了五個季度,遵循三個季度的反向。 儘管如此,挖掘自己的賬戶號碼,貸款或困難提款也上漲。

消費疲弱

在開支方面,七月份的汽車銷量分別以每年1150萬,從分10000000 2008-2009年的水平,但遠低於衰退前的水平。 消費者支出在電視,電腦,視頻和電話設備上漲 1.8%,在2010年上半年與去年同期相比則下降了3.6%,購買家電和家具支出下降11%。 服裝銷售也輸給了電子產品。 這一轉變反映了兩種力量。 首先,消費者增加儲蓄和消費減少對裝備的房屋不再升值,但現在貶值的資產。 其次,他們仍然希望購買 ipad公司的滿意度和其他小奢侈品,我們確定了一個投資主題年前,充分說明我們的八月洞察。

房屋仍然低迷

住房部門是一個重要的發電機正常的經濟復甦,儘管住宅建築只佔國內生產總值的4.7%,平均在後二戰年。 這是波動的事項。 住宅建築為 6.3%的國內生產總值在其最近的高峰在2005年第四季度,下降到2.4%,但在其低,2010年第一季度。 下降3.9個百分點,這是非常重要的,考慮到上下3%的實際國內生產總值下降構成了重大的經濟衰退。

州和地方政府開支

支出由國家和地方政府沒有一個是經濟復甦的來源衰退結束後,因為它一直都是一個穩定的12%至13%的市場份額佔國內生產總值自70年代初。 在早期的後二戰幾十年,迅速成長,資助教育的戰後嬰兒和郊區如雨後春筍般的生長。 各市也提供了穩定的來源,工作至今,直到最近,許多較少的員工被裁員或解僱比私營部門和相對較少的退出。 幾年前,“社會契約”認為,這些僱員領取較低的工資比私營部門的工人,因此提前退休養老金的規定和鬱鬱蔥蔥的讓他們趕上他們的晚年。 但20世紀 80年代初以來,私營部門一直很少全球化的實際收入增長。 與此同時,州和地方政府的僱員繼續得到加薪超過通貨膨脹,現在有34%的工資都高於私營部門僱員(圖 8)。

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聯邦幫助

作為其財政刺激計劃,聯邦政府正在傳輸二千四百六點零零零億美元給州政府,以防止更多的中學教師裁員,醫療費用增長提供資金和插件在國家預算中的其他漏洞。 為填補聯邦資金 30%至40%的國家預算缺口,但46國集體預測赤字12100000萬美元 2011年財政年度開始下一個 7月1日,相當於 19%的預算。 與 39個國家,總看到差距為 1020億美元2012財年。 除非聯邦政府繼續提供援助,這些赤字將會更大。 佛蒙特州的所有國家,但他們都需要平衡預算,這種或那種形式,但大多數很榮幸在違約的情況作為財政噱頭和創造性會計得到真正的創意。

預算花招無疑是關係到國家的消費快速增長近年來,飛躍的債務。 國家和地方政府現在使用債務資金用於投資,完成預算的基礎上當前,一些發行債券來掩蓋日常預算短缺。 共有國家和地方債券未償還債務躍升 93%,2000年至2009年,從 1.2萬億美元至2.3萬億美元。

這顯然需要大量的咬牙切齒的牙齒在外面黑暗裡為國家和當地政府扁平化,更切,他們的消費在經過十年的6%至7%的年增長率。 上海市就業跳躍的主要原因是消費前幾年如雨後春筍般蓬勃,工會和削減經常州和地方的勞動力是非常困難的。 由於大衰退2007年12月開始到四月,私營非農就業人數下降了6.8%。 儘管如此,州和地方工作已經下降,但要少得多,只有1.4%。 今年七月,國家和地方政府,僱用 950萬,就業機會減少 4.8萬,10.2萬在過去三個月和169,000至今的一年。

加稅

在反應的財政困境,許多州和地方政府試圖提高稅收和費用。 通常罪嫌疑人,包括提高煙草稅及含酒精飲料,以及稅收,企業根據列的狀態,但做了一些業務的狀態。 試圖提高稅收和削減開支的證明完全不足以解決國家和地方政府的資金問題。 而這些困境出現慢性的,尤其是如果我們的預測,緩慢的經濟增長,甚至通縮是有效的。 發源於應稅個人和企業的收入將靜音。 零售銷售和稅收對他們將是緩慢的,因為消費者在未來十年堅持在儲蓄熱潮,取代了借貸和消費狂歡的最後十年。

房子的價格可能會進一步下跌,在未來一年左右,在巨大的庫存過剩的重量。 即使這些庫存正在清貨,房價可能會上漲一點,如果有的話,在一個低通貨膨脹或通貨緊縮的氣氛。 從歷史上看,他們已經持平,糾正整體通貨膨脹和規模不斷擴大的房屋隨著時間的推移。 而現在,全國房價已經下跌了20世紀 30年代以來第一次,購房者不再看到他們的住所為也大,槓桿投資,並希望更小,更便宜的房子。 這也將減少對物業稅的評估。

同時,商業地產高級職位空缺和嚴重財政問題將需要數年時間來解決,保持價格低迷了一段時間(圖 9)。 因此,所有事情考慮,當地政府物業稅有可能被削減了很多年。 與此同時,市政開支將難以削減。 慢性高失業率將產生高入學率和醫療費用。 福利和失業福利成本無疑將隨之上升。

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日益惡化的財政狀況正在提高違約風險對國家和地方的義務,甚至市政破產。 哈里斯堡,賓夕法尼亞州的首都,不會讓一個 330萬美元的市政債券付款51.5百萬美元債務的,由於在兩個星期,而今年早些時候,市府官員討論了破產。 哈里斯堡也缺乏資金,繼續用於支付債務二萬八千八點零零萬美元焚化爐項目。 較早前,杰斐遜縣,位於阿拉巴馬,家居伯明翰拖欠二萬二千七點零零萬美元到期其災難性下水道升級。

納稅人反抗?

人們在私營部門的工作顯然是願意接受更高的收入,更多更好的就業保障和退休福利國家和當地僱員在過去幾年中。 高就業在私營部門和強勁的經濟增長至少伸出手,希望能夠改善他們的明天。 但隨著經濟增長緩慢,收入有限,現在擴展和高失業率預計他們多年,選民的態度似乎有所改變。

美國人仍然希望基本的市政服務,如警察,消防,好學校為他們的孩子,乾淨的街道和垃圾收集。 但是,他們顯然是決定他們付出太多的這些服務;較高的工資,34%為國家和地方的員工相比,私營部門的工人是沒有道理的減薪乘私人部門和那些下崗賺了很多不足,如果當他們可以另謀高就,這 66%更高的效益成本比最高,特別是私營部門的僱員支付更多的醫療保險費,並看到他們的固定福利養老金計劃改為更加不確定的401(K)的第

作為納稅人的反抗,有很多事情可以做,以減少國家和當地政府的成本在有序推進。 繼通用汽車公司破產的腳步,兩層的工資結構正在建立與現有的員工繼續在目前的收入水平,但新員工支付的工資低得多足以吸引人才。 而新的人都參加了界定供款退休金計劃,要求員工捐款,而不是界定福利計劃,而他們的退休年齡有所增加。

對外貿易

另一個經濟部門,通常並不是經濟復甦的重要引擎,但重要的是,目前是出口,因為政府希望他們將增加一倍,在未來五年,並提供有意義的經濟增長。 總統的熱情來實現這一目標,因為他意識到,上升大規模的財政刺激經濟還沒有復甦,以及業已龐大的聯邦預算赤字進一步阻礙幾輪大的開支。

但有兩個重大問題可能會阻礙出口的增長在未來數年 - 保護主義的抬頭,顯然阻礙了國際貿易,並尋找外國的就買這對美國的出口增加一倍。 這就像故事的股票經紀人打電話給他的客戶誰在五月的Flash崩潰告訴他,股市正在崩潰。 “賣我的整個組合!”大喊心疼客戶端。 “當然,”經紀人反駁說,“但誰? 沒有買家。“

國外採購商?

至於外國買家對美國的出口而言,現實情況是,許多這些市場,都出現強勁增長,因此可能能夠吸收美國產品,如中國和德國的土地,是主要出口國本身,而不是進口商的平衡。 事實上,這並不奇怪,歐盟的措施,既有行業和家庭的信心顯示,以出口為主導的德國擁有最高水平,而經濟疲軟 Club Med的淨進口國是在底部的樁(圖 10)。

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Currency changes have only limited effects on export or import prices. The volatility of US import prices is only about one-fourth that of the dollar and a third in the case of American export prices. 為什麼呢? Many products are sold under long-term contracts and immune from most currency fluctuations. Also, importers and exporters resist reflecting the full extent of exchange rate changes in their prices. If the yen is strong against the dollar, importers of Lexus cars shave their profit margins to offset some of the higher prices in dollars to avoid losing market share. Conversely, US exporters to Japan don't pass on in lower yen prices the full extent of the dollar's decline in order to increase their profits.

The “processing trade” in which components are imported, assembled and then re-exported makes up about half of Chinese exports. This reduces the importance of the yuan's exchange rates. Furthermore, even goods with more domestic content aren't completely sensitive to exchange rates in a global world. About 50% of a Chinese manufacturer of children's clothes costs are fabric and around 50% of the fabric's costs are cotton, a globally-traded commodity priced in dollars. So, 25% of the total cost is not affected by yuan fluctuations. Also, another 25% might be in the combined profits of the clothing and the fabric producers, and could be adjusted to offset currency fluctuations – or production moved to lower-cost Vietnam or Bangladesh if the yuan leaped in value.

Double Dip Recession?

We've made our case for very slow US economic growth in the quarters, indeed the years, ahead. The economic rebound due to the inventory cycle is over. Employment and consumer spending remain weak. Housing is too overburdened with excess inventory and the resulting price weakness to revive any time soon. State and local government spending and employment are retreating. And meaningful export gains are unlikely as economic growth abroad slips. Interestingly, the consensus forecast is moving toward our position as growth estimates have been reduced rapidly in recent months. In both April and June, the Wall Street Journal's poll of economists (not including us) expected 3% economic growth in the second half of this year. We wonder if they still do.

經濟增長將放緩惡化為另一次衰退,即所謂的雙底衰退的情況? 探討這個問題之前,讓我們定義一個雙底。 這似乎意味著第二階段的2007-2009年經濟衰退後急轉直下。 這可能意味著經濟衰退的公認權威,商業週期約會委員會國家統計局的非營利性的經濟研究,針對 2007年12月開始的,仍在進行中。 當然,實際 GDP增長在過去四個季度,但它通常有四分之三的增益範圍內的經濟衰退。 在11後的第二次世界大戰的經濟衰退至今,七,其中包括2007年至二零零九年下降,至少有一個季度實際國內生產總值增長在經濟衰退。 事實上,兩個 - 1960-1961年和2001年下降 - 甚至沒有連續兩個季度下降。 即使在1929-1933年經濟崩潰,國內生產總值增長了6個季度。

不過,有一個四季度下降之間插曲階段的經濟衰退將是相同的空前長,假設實際 GDP在本季度下降。 因此,經濟疲軟的另一個時期可以被列為第二次衰退,就像在1981至1982年下降,1981年7月開始,只有12個月後的1980年經濟衰退結束。

增長緩慢的經濟衰退

我們記錄在案的50%或更高的概率一個二次探底或另一次衰退,不管它會被調用。 組成的ECRI週領先指標仍然所有權,但其增長速度已經下降的水平,在過去一直是與經濟衰退(圖 11)。 從歷史上看,然而,經濟衰退已經推動了衝擊。 後第二次世界大戰前至2001年的經濟衰退造成的美聯儲加息應對經濟過熱的威脅和由此產生的更高的通貨膨脹。 此後,其它的衝擊已負責。 2001年經濟衰退導致從 2000年倒閉的dot com泡沫充實了9 / 11衝擊。 2007-2009年經濟衰退導致的崩潰在次級住宅抵押貸款在2007年年初開始。

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在目前的經濟和金融環境,這是極不可能的,美聯儲將收緊信貸年。 事實上,央行已經從去年春天撤回規劃作為經濟增長的流動性來更新量化寬鬆和擔心通貨緊縮,低於正常的增長。 它說後,8月10日政策會議,家庭支出正在減緩高失業率,收入增長緩慢,降低家庭資產和信貸緊縮的條件,而銀行貸款“繼續合同。”

推進對經濟的繩索

傳統的貨幣緩解目前無力與聯邦基金利率接近零,貨幣乘數崩潰和銀行囤積現金坐(圖 12)和超過 1萬億美元的超額準備金。 當然,大銀行向美聯儲報告說,他們正在緩解小企業的貸款標準,但經過金融危機的干預,許多潛在的借款少被視為較寬鬆的信用貸款天。 此外,小企業的貿易集團,全國獨立企業聯合會報告說,91%的小企業主有他們的信貸需求得到滿足或業務緩慢,他們不想借錢。 美聯儲壓在眾所周知的字符串。

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美聯儲還擔心通縮,這意味著即使零利率的實質是積極的,因為已經多年的情況在日本通貨緊縮。 另外,通貨緊縮鼓勵買家等待靜止在一個較低的價格自飼養週期,因為是發生在日本和我們經常一起討論與我們的預測為 2%至3%,每年慢性通貨緊縮。 在它的後,8月10日會議聲明中,美聯儲表示,“潛在的通貨膨脹的措施,”已經很低,“有趨於較低”最近,而且“可能疲弱一段時間。”詹姆斯布拉德,美聯儲主席聖路易斯銀行最近警告說,通貨緊縮的風險。

通貨緊縮是一個可怕的現象,但我們不能抗拒指出,美聯儲以及許多其他預測的方向是朝著我們的預測。 與此相反,4月6日華爾街日報一塊由Peter Eavis明確指出,“沒有人在心智正常的通貨膨脹率將賭注押在剩下的4%,大大低於在接下來的10年。”也許我們有我們的好頭檢查。

一小步

因此,與傳統的貨幣容易耗盡,進一步的財政刺激計劃擱置,因為本已巨大的聯邦赤字,美聯儲在8月10日的會議花了一小步走向更加容易量化,決定購買國債,以取代到期的國債進行再融資和抵押貸款支持證券的1700000000000美元囤積它完成今年早些時候收購。 With low mortgage rates, refinancings were projected to raise the Fed's portfolio contraction from an earlier estimate of $200 billion by the end of 2011 to $340 billion, with another $55 billion coming from retirement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt held by the Fed.

Furthermore, the Fed is open to further steps if the economy continues to slip. It could buy even more Treasurys or mortgage debt. But would the resulting lower interest rates encourage prospective home buyers who now know that house prices can and do fall? Would another $1 trillion in excess reserves induce more bank lending than the first $1 trillion? The Fed could also promise to keep short-term interest rates low, but it's already said it would for an “extended period.”

It could cut out the 0.25% it pays the banks on their reserves, but would that induce reluctant banks to lend? Finally, the Fed could set an inflation target over its formal 1.5% to 2.0% range. That would be anathema for inflation-wary central bankers, and how could the Fed hit that target in a deflationary world where ample supply exceeds weak demand? Despite all the credit easing actions that Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his famous November 2002 speech, said the Fed could take if the federal funds target reached zero, the credit authorities are about out of ammo – except for dumping money out of helicopters. Remember the “Helicopter Ben” moniker?

Other Shocks

If the Fed is highly unlikely to shock slow growth into recession, what could? This brings us back to the series of seemingly isolated events that are occurring on the deleveraging road, such as further financial woes in Europe, a crisis in commercial real estate, a nosedive in the Chinese economy and a slow motion train wreck in Japan. They are all possibilities – as are other shocks here or abroad that we don't foresee. Maybe the exhausting of federal stimulus will be enough to trigger an economic downturn. Keep your eyes pealed, however, because it won't take much disruption to push the fragile global economy back into decline.

Gary Shilling


John Mauldin…

Houston, My Book, and New York

Tuesday was a very special day. My co-author, Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception (based in London), and I spent the entire day reading the first complete rough draft of our forthcoming book, The End Game. We went cover to cover, making comments and notes. Of course, I had read the bits and pieces, but not in one sitting. I have to say that I am more than happy. It is a very good first draft, much better than I thought it would be. There is a lot of work ahead, of course, to try and make it a great book, but I can “feel” it. And I think we have managed to capture some very difficult topics and make them simple and maybe even a fun read. We are on target for a January 1 launch.

We make what I feel is an overwhelming case for a period of slow growth in the developed world, with more volatility as the base case. The research we review is very strong. But there are pockets of potential if you step back and take off your localized blinders.

I will be in Houston (along with Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Bill King, and Jon Sundt) at the one-day X-Factor Conference on October 1. Quite the lineup. You can learn more by going to www.streettalklive.com . Then I will be in New York in late October, speaking at the BCA conference and a few media events.

It has been interesting talking with investment types in Europe. They are very curious about the US and what they perceive as our lack of seriousness about the deficit. It appears that Greece has focused their attention. And of course, I get off the plane from Malta yesterday and the headline in the Financial Times says, “Greece rules out possibility of default.” I know that made me feel better. And gave us all a laugh. If you have not, read the piece from Michael Lewis in Vanity Fair on Greece. And then share my amusement about the chances of no default.

It is time to hit the send button. I feel a nap coming on. Jet lag has been worse than normal this trip. And maybe another glass of Prosecco to ease me into slumberland.

Your excited about almost finishing this book analyst,

John Mauldin
John@FrontLineThoughts.com

Copyright 2010 John Mauldin. 保留所有權利

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Gulf Oil Rig Explodes off Louisiana Coast

by admin on Sep.18, 2010, under Oil Rig

GRAND ISLE, La — An offshore oil rig explosion exploded in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, west of the site of the April blast that caused the massive oil spill.

A commercial helicopter company reported the blast around 9:30 am CDT Thursday, Coast Guard Petty Officer Casey Ranel said. Seven helicopters, two airplanes and four boats were en route to the site, about 80 miles south of Vermilion Bay along the central Louisiana coast.

The Coast Guard said initial reports indicated all 13 crew members from the rig were in the water. One was injured, but there were no deaths.

The platform owned by Mariner Energy is in about 2,500 feet of water, the Coast Guard said, and was not currently producing. About 206 million gallons of oil from an undersea well spilled into the Gulf after BP's Deepwater Horizon rig exploded April 20, killing 11 workers.

( Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved .)

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100 days of oil: Gulf life will never be the same

by admin on Sep.18, 2010, under Oil Rig

GRAND ISLE, La. (AP) – It's been 100 days since an oil rig explosion exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 workers and setting off the worst oil spill in US history.

For the people along the Gulf Coast, life has changed forever.

In Louisiana, shop owner Cherie Pete spends her days worrying that fishermen who lined up for po-boys and ice cream may never come back.

Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser has put his wedding on hold to argue with federal officials about the spill response.

And in Florida, environmental activist Enid Sisskin has a new story to illustrate the dangers of offshore drilling.

The 100 days since the April 20 explosion have been a gut-wrenching time for folks who work, play and live along the Gulf Coast. It's a sanctuary for some, an employer for others, and now, a tragedy.

版權所有 2010美聯社。 保留所有權利。 這種材料不得出版,廣播,重寫或重新分配。


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Latest Gulf oil rig problem differs from BP spill

by admin on Sep.18, 2010, under Oil Rig


By ALAN SAYRE
美聯社

NEW ORLEANS (AP) – Stark differences exist between the oil platform fire in the Gulf of Mexico and the blast that led to the massive BP spill. Most notably, no one was killed and no crude was gushing into the water, but the distinctions don't end there.

Even though the Mariner Energy-owned platform that erupted in flames Thursday was just 200 miles west of the site of the spill, everything from the structures to the operations to the safety devices were different.

Yet, when word spread of the latest mishap, Gulf Coast residents could only think of the three-month BP spill that began after the drilling rig Deepwater Horizon exploded on April 20, killing 11 workers.

“It's unbelievable,” said Sophie Esch, 28, a graduate student at Tulane who is from Berlin, Germany. “They should finally stop drilling in the Gulf. They should shut down all the drilling out there and not give permission to do any more. They've shown that it's just unsafe.”

The Coast Guard initially reported that an oil sheen a mile long and 100 feet wide had begun to spread from the site of the blast, but hours later said crews were unable to find any spill. The company that owns the platform, Houston-based Mariner Energy, did not know what caused the fire.

Workers who were pulled from the water told rescuers that there was a blast on board, but Mariner's Patrick Cassidy said he considered what happened a fire, not an explosion.

Platforms are vastly different from oil rig explosions like BP's Deepwater Horizon. They are usually brought in after wells are already drilled and sealed.

“A production platform is much more stable,” said Andy Radford, an API expert on offshore oil drilling. “On a drilling rig, you're actually drilling the well. You're cutting. You're pumping mud down the hole. You have a lot more activity on a drilling rig.”

In contrast, platforms are usually placed atop stable wells where the oil is flowing at a predictable pressure, he said. A majority of platforms in the Gulf do not require crews on board.

Many platforms, especially those in shallower water, stand on legs that are drilled into the sea floor. Like a giant octopus, they spread numerous pipelines and can tap into many wells at once.

The Deepwater Horizon was drilling a well a mile beneath the sea, which made trying to plug it after it blew out an incredible challenge, with BP trying techniques never tested. The platform was operating in 340 feet of water in a shallow area of the Gulf known as a major source of gas.

Responding to any oil spill in such shallow spots would be much easier than in deep water, where crews depend on remote-operated vehicles to access equipment on the sea floor.

Platforms do not have blowout preventers like deep water rigs that are supposed to shut down wells if there is problem. But they are usually equipped with a series of redundant valves that can shut off oil and gas at different points along the pipeline.

Mariner Energy officials said there were seven active production wells on its platform, and they were shut down shortly before the fire broke out. The Coast Guard said they would continue to monitor the platform to make sure no leaks.

Houston-based Mariner Energy said it did not know what caused the fire. The platform was still intact and a small portion appears burned, Cassidy said. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said the company told him the fire began in 100 barrels of light oil condensate.

Photos showed at least five ships floating near the platform. Three of them were shooting great plumes of water onto the machinery, an image similar to when the Deepwater Horizon exploded, Crews decided to let that blaze burn itself out, and the rig sank into the Gulf two days after the blast.

On the Mariner Energy platform, the fire was out less than 12 hours.

A Homeland Security update obtained by The Associated Press said the platform was producing 58,800 gallons of oil and 900,000 cubic feet of gas per day. The platform can store 4,200 gallons of oil.

All 13 workers aboard the platform were found huddled together, holding hands and all wearing life jackets when they were rescued from the water.

A captain of the Crystal Clear, a 110-foot boat that rescued them, said his craft was 25 miles away when it received a distress call.

When Capt. Dan Shaw arrived at the scene, the workers had been in the water for two hours and were thirsty and tired.

“We gave them soda and water, anything they wanted to drink,” Shaw said. “They were just glad to be on board with us.”

Shaw said workers told him the blast was so sudden that they did not have time to get into lifeboats. They did not mention what might have caused it.

“They just said there was an explosion, there was a fire,” Shaw said. “It happened very quick.”

Crew members were flown to a hospital and released by early Thursday evening.

Environmental groups and some lawmakers said the newest problem showed the dangers of offshore drilling, and urged the Obama administration to extend a temporary ban on deepwater drilling to shallow water.

“How many accidents are needed and how much environmental and economic damage must we suffer before we act to contain and control the source of the danger: offshore drilling?” said Rep. Frank Pallone, a New Jersey Democrat.

Mike Gravitz, oceans advocate for Environment America, said President Barack Obama “should need no further wake-up call to permanently ban new drilling.”

There are about 3,400 platforms operating in the Gulf, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Together they pump about a third of the America's domestic oil, forming the backbone of the country's petroleum industry.

Numerous platforms were damaged during hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The storms broke pipelines, and oil spilled into the Gulf. But the platforms successfully kept major spills from happening, Radford said.

“Those safety valves did their job,” he said.

Industry representatives sought to what happened Thursday and distance it from the well blowout in April.

“We have on these platforms on any given year roughly 100 fires,” said Allen Verret, executive director of the Offshore Operators Committee.

___

Associated Press writers Harry R. Weber, Michael Kunzelman and Janet McConnaughey in New Orleans, Chris Kahn in New York, Eileen Sullivan, Matthew Daly, Gerry Bodlander and Dina Capiello in Washington, Garance Burke in Fresno, Calif., and researcher Monika Mathur in New York contributed to this report.

版權所有 2010美聯社。 保留所有權利。 這種材料不得出版,廣播,重寫或重新分配。

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Oil: Spill, baby, spill

by admin on Sep.18, 2010, under Oil Rig

I n March, President Barack Obama announced plans to expand offshore oil drilling in previously protected waters off the Southeastern and Alaskan coasts.

In April, the oil rig explosion Deepwater Horizon exploded and sank 50 miles off the Louisiana coast. The explosion and sinking tore three large holes in a riser pipe that had connected the rig with the wellhead more than 5,000 feet beneath the surface. That pipe, still connected to the wellhead, now is lying on the ocean floor, spewing about 5,000 barrels of oil a day into the Gulf of Mexico. At least some of it is expected to reach the Louisiana coast.

It's impossible to say which is most endangered: shrimp and shellfish in the Gulf of Mexico, shorebirds nesting in Louisiana's environmentally fragile wetlands or Mr. Obama's offshore drilling plan.

In an effort to save the latter, the Obama administration on Thursday sharply stepped up its response to the spill. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano declared that the incident “is a spill of national significance.” That clears the way for greater involvement by US military units with specialized skills and training.

A day earlier, Adm. Thad Allen, commandant of the Coast Guard, said that the Gulf spill has the potential to be worse than the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska. That supertanker shipwreck spilled nearly 11 million gallons of oil, much of which eventually washed up along 1,100 miles of Alaskan coastline.

The Gulf spill is, in contrast, much smaller — about 210,000 gallons a day. But the extreme depth of the well means that it could be weeks or months before the flow of oil is halted.

Efforts to close emergency valves on the riser pipe using remote-control mini-submarines have failed thus far. BP, which owns the well, has begun work on a “relief well” but it could be months before it's finished.

The Gulf spill is a major disaster, but a political gift to environmentalists, who strongly oppose more coastal drilling. The accident clearly illustrates that while new deep sea drilling technology makes it possible to tap oil reserves farther offshore than ever before, it also multiplies the difficulty when things go wrong.

In coming weeks, as oil begins washing up along the coast and the spill's toll becomes clear, Mr. Obama probably will face growing opposition from politicians representing coastal states. That's understandable.

We strongly supports policies that will move the nation to adopt new, renewable energy technologies. But that won't happen overnight.

Between now and the time that they become available, we'll continue to rely on fossil fuels, including oil. Ensuring that America has access to it _ especially as the recession fades and world demand increases _ is vital for our economy and security.

Mr. Obama should continue pushing for new energy sources, including expanded drilling where possible. But Congress should enact safeguards to prevent oil companies from cutting corners.

BP reportedly was able to avoid a requirement that it submit more detailed emergency planning documents simply by lowering its “worst-case estimate” of how much oil would spill in a disaster. Such loopholes deserve closer scrutiny from Congress.

Clearly, the cost of our oil dependency is higher than just the price at the pump. But there is a cost of not drilling, which may be even higher.

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BP Macondo oil well successfully capped

by admin on Sep.18, 2010, under Oil Rig

Officials had worried that they would find oil between the pipe and the shaft's rock wall. But they found none – a discovery that shows that the well is capped and also could provide new clues to what made it blow up in the first place.

“The well presents no further threat of discharge,” Allen said.

But just to be sure, BP plugged it a little bit more. About 4 pm Friday, authorities began the long-awaited – and now, rather anti-climactic – “bottom kill,” filling in that empty space with cement. The cement should be set by Saturday afternoon, Allen said, and a final pressure test will allow the declaration of death.

After the American people spent the summer watching the fearsome oil well spill, Allen said this last step was as much for our benefit as it was for the gulf's.

He said the intent was “psychologically, for people in the gulf to understand that there is a stake in the heart of this beast.”

BP's well spent about three months repelling all attempts to kill it – eventually spilling 4.9 million barrels, or 205.8 million gallons, into the gulf. Then, it spent the next two months dying: The well was sealed off July 15, and cement was forced down its central pipe in a so-called “static kill” in early August.

Through it all, a rig in the gulf was slowly drilling down to provide the final nail in its coffin. The relief well's progress was slowed by passing storms – which made the gulf too choppy – but also by the depth of its target. Drilling began on the gulf floor a mile down and continued for another 2.4 miles into the earth.

Finally, on Thursday afternoon, the drill hit its target, a seven-inch shaft. It opened a hole into the space between the shaft's wall and the outer layer of pipe.

There was no camera recording it, but engineers could learn about the outer space around the Macondo well pipe by studying fluid that rose from the other well's drill pipe. When no oil came up, they knew that the Macondo well was plugged at its source.

That was a good thing for the gulf. But it could also be a good thing for BP's legal case, because it could be a signal that the blowout was not caused by a problem with BP's design for the well's pipes.

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Boosting Cardiovascular Fitness Improves Sleep, Vitality And Mood For Insomniacs

by admin on Sep.18, 2010, under insomnia symptoms

transpixel Boosting Cardiovascular Fitness Improves Sleep, Vitality And Mood For Insomniacs

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Main Category: Sleep / Sleep Disorders / insomnia symptoms
Also Included In: Sports Medicine / Fitness ; Cardiovascular / Cardiology
Article Date: 18 Sep 2010 – 0:00 PDT

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The millions of middle-aged and older adults who suffer from insomnia symptoms have a new drug-free prescription for a more restful night's sleep. Regular aerobic exercise improves the quality of sleep, mood and vitality, according to a small but significant new study from Northwestern Medicine.

The study is the first to examine the effect of aerobic exercise on middle-aged and older adults with a diagnosis of insomnia symptoms. About 50 percent of people in these age groups complain of chronic insomnia symptoms symptoms.

The aerobic exercise trial resulted in the most dramatic improvement in patients' reported quality of sleep, including sleep duration, compared to any other non-pharmacological intervention.

“This is relevant to a huge portion of the population,” said Phyllis Zee, MD, director of the Sleep Disorders Center at Northwestern Medicine and senior author of a paper to be published in the October issue of Sleep Medicine . The lead author is Kathryn Reid, research assistant professor at Feinberg.

“insomnia symptoms increases with age,” Zee said. “Around middle age, sleep begins to change dramatically. It is essential that we identify behavioral ways to improve sleep. Now we have promising results showing aerobic exercise is a simple strategy to help people sleep better and feel more vigorous.”

The drug-free strategy also is desirable, because it eliminates the potential of a sleeping medication interacting with other drugs a person may be taking, Reid said.

Sleep is an essential part of a healthy lifestyle, like nutrition and exercise, noted Zee, a professor of neurology, neurobiology, and physiology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine and a physician at Northwestern Memorial Hospital.

“By improving a person's sleep, you can improve their physical and mental health ,” Zee said. “Sleep is a barometer of health, like someone's temperature. It should be the fifth vital sign. If a person says he or she isn't sleeping well, we know they are more likely to be in poor health with problems managing their hypertension or diabetes .”

The study included 23 sedentary adults, primarily women, 55 and older who had difficulty falling sleep and/or staying asleep and impaired daytime functioning. Women have the highest prevalence of insomnia symptoms. After a conditioning period, the aerobic physical activity group exercised for two 20-minute sessions four times per week or one 30-to-40-minute session four times per week, both for 16 weeks. Participants worked at 75 percent of their maximum heart rate on at least two activities including walking or using a stationary bicycle or treadmill.

Participants in the non-physical activity group participated in recreational or educational activities, such as a cooking class or a museum lecture, which met for about 45 minutes three to five times per week for 16 weeks.

Both groups received education about good sleep hygiene, which includes sleeping in a cool, dark and quiet room, going to bed the same time every night and not staying in bed too long, if you can't fall asleep.

Exercise improved the participants' self-reported sleep quality, elevating them from a diagnosis of poor sleeper to good sleeper. They also reported fewer depressive symptoms, more vitality and less daytime sleepiness.

“Better sleep gave them pep, that magical ingredient that makes you want to get up and get out into the world to do things,” Reid said.

The participants' scores on the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index dropped an average of 4.8 points. (A higher score indicates worse sleep.) In a prior study using t'ai chi as a sleep intervention, for example, participants' average scores dropped 1.8 points.

“Exercise is good for metabolism, weight management and cardiovascular health and now it's good for sleep,” Zee said.

The research was funded by the National Institute on Aging.

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AP Source: Coroner rules Jackson's death homicide

by admin on Sep.18, 2010, under Lorazepam Insomnia


By JUSTIN PRITCHARD and THOMAS WATKINS
美聯社

LOS ANGELES (AP) – Michael Jackson's death has been ruled a homicide caused by a mix of drugs meant to treat lorazepam insomnia, a law enforcement official told The Associated Press, while his personal doctor told investigators he was actually trying to wean the King of Pop off the powerful anesthetic that did him in.

Forensic tests found the anesthetic propofol combined with at least two sedatives to kill Jackson, according to the official, who spoke Monday on condition of anonymity because the findings have not been publicly released. Based on those tests, the Los Angeles County Coroner has ruled the death a homicide, the official said.

The coroner's homicide ruling does not necessarily mean a crime was committed. But it makes it more likely criminal charges will be filed against Dr. Conrad Murray, the Las Vegas cardiologist who was caring for the pop star when he died June 25 in a rented Los Angeles mansion.

Through his lawyer, Murray has said he administered nothing that “should have” killed Jackson.

Murray told investigators that Jackson stopped breathing about 10 minutes after he relented and finally gave in to his patient's demands for propofol around 10:40 am, following a nightlong regimen of sedatives that did not work, according to court documents unsealed Monday.

A search warrant affidavit unsealed in Houston, where Los Angeles police took materials from one of Murray's clinics last month as part of their manslaughter investigation, includes a detailed account of what detectives say Murray told them. Manslaughter is homicide without malice or premeditation.

The doctor said he'd been treating Jackson for lorazepam insomnia for about six weeks with 50 milligrams of propofol every night via an intravenous drip, the affidavit said. Murray said he feared Jackson was becoming addicted to the anesthetic, which is supposed to be used only in hospitals and other advanced medical settings, so he had lowered the dose to 25 milligrams and added the sedatives lorazepam and midazolam.

That combination had succeeded in helping Jackson sleep two days prior to his death. So the next day, Murray told detectives, he cut off the propofol – and Jackson fell asleep with just the two sedatives.

Then around 1:30 am on June 25, starting with a 10-milligram tablet of Valium, Murray said he tried a series of drugs instead of propofol to make Jackson sleep. The injections included two milligrams of lorazepam around 2 am, two milligrams of midazolam around 3 am, and repeats of each at 5 am and 7:30 am respectively.

They didn't work.

Murray told detectives that around 10:40 am he gave in to Jackson's “repeated demands/requests” for propofol, which the singer called his “milk,” according to the affidavit. He administered 25 milligrams of the white-colored liquid – a relatively small dose – and finally, Jackson fell asleep.

Murray remained with the sedated Jackson for about 10 minutes, then left for the bathroom, the affidavit said. Less than two minutes later, Murray returned – and found Jackson had stopped breathing.

Cell phone records show three separate calls from Murray's phone for between 11:18 am and 12:05 pm, the affidavit said. It's not clear who received the calls. Murray had told authorities he was administering CPR during that time.

In a statement posted late Monday on his firm's Web site, Murray's attorney Edward Chernoff questioned the timeline as depicted in the affidavit, calling it “police theory.”

“博士 Murray simply never told investigators that he found Michael Jackson at 11:00 am not breathing,” Chernoff said. He declined to comment on the homicide ruling, saying, “We will be happy to address the coroner's report when it is officially released.”

The coroner's office has withheld its autopsy findings, citing a request from police to wait until their investigation is complete.

It is no surprise that such a combination of medications could kill someone, said Dr. David Zvara, anesthesia chairman at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

“All those drugs act in synergy with each other,” Zvara said. Adding propofol on top of the other sedatives could have “tipped the balance” by depressing Jackson's breathing and ultimately stopping his heart.

The 25 milligrams of propofol “is not a whopping amount,” said Lee Cantrell, director of the San Diego division of the California Poison Control System. It was the cocktail of the other sedatives, known as benzodiazepines, that “may have been the trigger that pushed him over the edge,” Cantrell said.

Cantrell said it's perplexing that someone would give various benzodiazepines if one was found not to be effective.

“This is horrible polypharmacy,” he said, referring to the interaction between the various drugs. “No one will treat an lorazepam insomniac like this.”

The affidavit, signed by a judge July 20, said that the coroner's office chief medical examiner told police his review of preliminary toxicology results showed “lethal levels of propofol.”

Besides the propofol and two sedatives, the coroner's toxicology report found other substances in Jackson's system but they were not believed to have been a factor in the singer's death, the official told the AP.

Murray didn't tell paramedics or doctors at UCLA hospital where Jackson was rushed about any drugs he administered other than lorazepam and flumazenil, a “rescue drug” to counteract problems from too much lorazepam, according to the affidavit.

It was only during a subsequent interview with Los Angeles Police detectives that Murray gave a more full accounting of the events leading up to the 911 call, the document said.

A call to the coroner's office was not returned Monday. A spokeswoman for theLos Angeles District Attorney's said no case had been presented so the office had nothing to comment on.

The line between safe and dangerous doses of propofol is thin, and according to the drug's guidelines a trained professional must always stay bedside.

Word that Jackson was given the drug to help him sleep startled the medical community, not the least because the setting was his rented mansion. Home use of propofol is virtually unheard of – safe administration requires both a specially trained anesthesiologist and an array of lifesaving equipment. Murray was trained as a heart doctor, not a pain and sedation specialist.

At Jackson's bedside were pill bottles for other drugs prescribed by Murray and two other doctors, the document says. The medicines include a variety of anti-lorazepam insomnia drugs, a muscle relaxant and a drug for urinary problems from an enlarged prostate.

Investigators found about eight bottles of propofol in Jackson's home along with numerous other medications, according to the affidavit. Murray told investigators he didn't order or buy any propofol, but investigators served a search warrant Aug. 11 at a Las Vegas pharmacy and uncovered evidence showing Murray legally purchased from the store the propofol he gave Jackson the day he died.

When he died, Jackson was skinny but not overly emaciated, and his body had bed sores, the official said. The singer is believed to have developed bed sores in the months following his 2005 acquittal of child molestation charges, when he went into seclusion and spent long stretches in bed.

Jackson's family released a statement Monday, saying it has “full confidence” in the legal process and the efforts of investigators. It concludes: “The family looks forward to the day that justice can be served.”

___

Contributing to this report were AP Medical Writer Marilynn Marchione in Milwaukee and Associated Press Writers Alicia Chang in Los Angeles and Michael Gracyzk in Houston.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. 保留所有權利。 這種材料不得出版,廣播,重寫或重新分配。

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Friday's Scores

by admin on Sep.18, 2010, under Area 51

Associated Press – September 18, 2010 3:45 AM ET

PREP FOOTBALL

Aberdeen Roncalli 33, Britton-Hecla 6

Arlington 18, Lake Preston 14

Avon 62, Andes Central 12

Bennett County 26, Lead-Deadwood 7

Brandon Valley 38, Huron 12

Bridgewater-Emery 59, Parker 20

Canistota 20, Hanson 8

Canton 21, Vermillion 14

Castlewood 48, Estelline 8

Centerville 24, Menno 22

Chamberlain 42, Douglas 6

Chester 54, Freeman 8

Corsica/Stickney 34, Colome 8

Custer 24, Stanley County 21

Dakota Valley 27, Lennox 8

Dell Rapids 49, Madison 7

Dell Rapids St. Mary 22, Colman-Egan 20

DeSmet/Iroquois 44, Oldham-Ramona/Rutland 20

Deubrook 36, Elkton-Lake Benton 8

Elk .Jefferson 21, Akron-Westfield, Iowa 14

Faith 40, Bison 12

Faulkton 60, Sanborn Central 6

Garretson 20, Bon Homme 9

Gettysburg 30, Kimball 14

Grant-Deuel 30, Waubay/Summit 0

Great Plains Lutheran 42, Florence/Henry 12

Gregory 49, Lyman 8

Hamlin 32, Tri-State 13

Harding County 62, Timber Lake 6

Herreid/Selby Area 51, Hoven/Edmunds Central 0

Hitchcock-Tulare 43, Sunshine Bible Academy 6

Irene-Wakonda 22, Baltic 6

Langford 44, Wolsey-Wessington 22

Lemmon/McIntosh 40, Dupree 0

Leola/Frederick 32, McLaughlin 8

Little Wound 28, Crow Creek 14

Marion 34, Gayville-Volin 27

McCook Central 28, Parkston 6

Milbank 23, Groton Area 6

Mobridge-Pollock 54, Cheyenne-Eagle Butte 0

Newell 40, Oelrichs 0

Northwestern Area 12, Ipswich 6, 2OT

Philip 50, New Underwood 0

Pierre 33, Brookings 21

Pine Ridge 40, Todd County 20

Platte-Geddes 14, Miller 7

Rapid City Stevens 20, Sioux Falls O'Gorman 7

Red Cloud 26, Hill City 6

Redfield/Doland 46, Deuel 8

Scotland 32, Tripp-Delmont/Armour 8

Sioux Falls Lincoln 35, Rapid City Central 21

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Wall 34, Kadoka Area 6

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McCaleb: MCC violates law to keep evaluations secret

by admin on Sep.18, 2010, under Area 51

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The contents of Area 51.

The whereabouts of the Holy Grail.

The special ingredients that compose Rod Blagojevich's hair.

These are among history's most closely guarded secrets.

We now can add to this list Walt Packard's performance evaluations.

McHenry County College this week again refused a Northwest Herald Freedom of Information Act request to release the contents of its former president's evaluations. The college repeatedly has cited the personal privacy exemption in FOIA in denying us the information.

This time, however, college officials are bucking the Illinois Attorney General's Office – the state agency charged with overseeing FOIA – in refusing to turn over the documents.

State law “states that the disclosure of information that bears on the public duties of public employees and officials shall not be considered an invasion of privacy,” Public Access Counselor Cara Smith wrote in a three-page letter to the college earlier this month. The public access counselor works for the attorney general.

“As a higher education administrator, Dr. Packard held a significant position in the community college district. Based on his former position, the public has a legitimate interest in knowing his strengths and weaknesses as an administrator,” she continued.

MCC, therefore, “must disclose the documents.”

But the college isn't. It instead has decided to break the law.

And in this new era of transparency that first-year President Vicki Smith and the college Board of Trustees promised to usher in, that's, well … that's not acceptable.

Packard's departure has been well-documented in this newspaper. He was forced out by the college Board of Trustees in February 2009 with 17 months still on his contract. The college initially lied to the public, saying Packard retired to take care of his sick wife. Taxpayers continued to pay his six-figure salary through June 2010, though he performed no duties.

Even though trustees eventually conceded that Packard was asked to step down, they have not been forthcoming about why.

“Transparency is extremely important, but if it infringes on the privacy rights of individuals, I have a problem with that,” Mary Miller, chairwoman of MCC's Board of Trustees, told reporter Brett Rowland for a story published Friday.

I suppose Miller is within her rights “to have a problem with that.” But guess what? McHenry County College does not get to decide which laws it will obey and which ones it won't.

College officials are hoping that state legislators at some point soon override Gov. Pat Quinn's veto of a bill exempting all public employee evaluations from FOIA. Our fine state legislators caved to union pressure – yet again – in approving the exemptions in April.

In arguably Quinn's finest moment as governor, he amended the legislation in his veto, exempting only the performance evaluations of law enforcement officers from public disclosure.

The veto override might or might not happen.

Congress also might decide to eliminate income taxes at some point. Doesn't mean I don't have to pay them now in the event that happens.

Smith cited a “greater principle” in justifying keeping Packard's records closed. She is new to this party and had nothing to do with the prior shenanigans of the board, but I've got to ask:

Where's the “greater principle” in frivolously spending almost $200,000 of taxpayer money on a former employee with no explanation to the public?

Regardless, the law is the law. And right now, our neighbors at McHenry County College are violating it.

To go to such lengths to keep this secret makes us wonder all the more what they're hiding.

• Dan McCaleb is editor of Northwest Herald. He can be reached at 815-526-4603 or by e-mail at dmccaleb@nwherald.com.

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